Marie Quantier

Incredible chart on #financials! More than 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis, European financials are still down 50% from their pre-crisis levels (#Greece and #Portugal down to zero), while financials in the US took more than 7 years to top their pre-crisis levels.

It feels like global macro risks are building for late summer/autumn (hard Brexit, US/China trade spat, US/EU trade issues to come before yr-end and global manufacturing effectively in recession) but all of us are reluctant to fight the CenBanks. Is this a trap, DB’s Reid asks.

State media means top chinese leaders including #XiJinping who supported army attack against #Tiananmen students in 1989. Today the World has changed. Big capitalism is scared by China and the communist dynasty has little popular support.

@AntoineBondaz Mais Xi Jinping sait quil ne peut intervenir a #Hongkong sans changer la face du monde et quitter l'orbite du Tianxia (toit du monde) qui est à la base du projet hégémonique de Pekin. Adieu les routes de la soie #OBOR la banque #AIIB ou même éclatement des #BRICS

🇯🇵 #Japan’s #GPIF has started currency hedging its overseas bond investments denominated in U.S. dollars and euros, Nikkei reported Sunday. nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO…

@mtmalinen @darioperkins @MarketBlondes Industrial slowdown -> profits growing slower than loans -> corporate debt looking hugely mispriced. And then a mad rush for the exit from a mkt where liquidity (dealer inventories) is low. Stocks get caught by the common drivers.

The Fed's job just got more complicated. The U.S. consumer is very strong. Growth is beating expectations. Business spending, though, is declining. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Yields are rising, but the U.S. yield curve is flattening.

On a real, "GAAP" basis, there has been no profit growth in 5 years - all multiple expansion and made-up accounting.

Now we learn that the S&P op. profits have not risen since 2014 whereas the S&P is +50%. When prices of goods rise w/out increase in utility, we call it inflation but when stock prices rise w/out increase in earnings, we call it multiple expansion. zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-2…

Ooof. Our estimate of 12-year prospective returns for a conventional portfolio mix (60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, 10% Tbills) is now down to 0.46%. The single week in history with a lower estimated prospective return was August 26, 1929 at the market peak. Just FYI.

Looks as no unanimity achieved on the next big monetary stimulus package. #ECB’s Draghi: Convergence of views, rather than unanimity among ECB policy makers. Says different nuances of views on parts of package, but committees received broad mandate.

If you're not used to listening to the ECB, you might find this comment trivial or obvious. It's not. This is a hugely important and unprecedented step in the ECB's history. Whatever it takes 2.0, to reach their mandate.

Companies are beating second-quarter estimates, but they aren’t raising forward guidance, effectively lowering the outlook for the second half. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The crazy bond rally continues w/ German 10y yields at -0.38% and Italy's 10y yields down 9bps at 1.51% as mkts price probability of an ECB rate cut tomorrow at 43%.

Vis-à-vis des alliés de l'#OTAN qui ne paient pas leur "dû" #Trump a toujours brandi les menaces les plus fortes. Mais cette nuit, au grand désarroi des sénateurs républicains, il refuse de sanctionner la #Turquie, allié OTAN, qui a acheté des S-400 à la #Russie. Etonnant, non?

#Eurozone PMI declined from 52.2 to 51.5 in Jul as manufacturing contraction deepens especially in #Germany. Weak report comes one day before #ECB’s policy decision and delivering fresh ammunition for ECB doves. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Buying Treasuries in October of 2018 — as stocks were peaking — was a smart money move. Buying Treasuries today or adding to your positions with a view that the bond market rally just started... might not be so smart from a contrarian perspective. @biancoresearch chart.

Ouch! German factory slump deepens on trade, Raising recession risk: German manufacturing PMI goes from bad to worse, dropping to just 43.1, an 84mth low. markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…

Ouch! The #IMF expects #deglobalization this year. IMF has cut projects for world trade growth by nearly a full percentage point to 2.5%. That's below global GDP growth projection of 3.2%.