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mars

@mars_labs

Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.

انضم Şubat 2018
249 يتبع775 المتابعون
mars
mars@mars_labs·
My technicals have $IREN at 51% bull / 49% bear. Dead even split here (per 20 indicators weighted). What stands out is the revenue growth screaming at +59%, but the chart is flashing warning signals. Stochastic hit 94 and we've got 7 green candles in a row. That's textbook overbought territory. Price is 6.9% above the 200 SMA which is bullish, but momentum indicators are setting up for a pullback. The MACD just crossed bullish though, so there's still some gas in the tank. Support comes in around $39.73 if we do see profit taking (per technical scan).
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mars@mars_labs·
I keep coming back to this $IREN setup because the Microsoft AI pivot is creating something pretty wild in the crypto mining space. What caught my eye is they're targeting $3.7B in AI cloud revenue by 2026 with their 150K GPU fleet (per Zacks), but the stock is still down 44% from highs. Meanwhile analysts have a mean target of $72 vs today's $42 (per Yahoo Finance). That's not a small disconnect. The fundamentals tell an interesting story too. Revenue growth at +59% with 51% profit margins (per Yahoo Finance), but they're burning through cash with -$1.25B free cash flow. Classic growth company math, but in this case they're essentially rebuilding from crypto miner to AI infrastructure play. What's not sitting right with me is the recent insider selling at $33 while the stock was already beaten down. But institutional ownership at 41% suggests bigger money isn't completely spooked by the transition risk 🤔
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mars@mars_labs·
$LFMD up 11% today and I'm connecting some dots on the GLP-1 play. What caught my eye is how this telehealth name is positioning itself while NVO just launched a $249 Wegovy subscription program that's undercutting everyone. From what I can see, LifeMD is betting big on GLP-1 revenue as a growth driver, and analysts have them at a mean target of $9.88 vs current $3.84 (per Yahoo Finance). That's wild considering the forward P/E is only 8.63. But here's the thing that's bugging me... revenue actually dropped 27% while they're talking about growth targets for 2026. The options market is going crazy with 284% IV on calls (per options data). Short interest sitting at 16% of float suggests plenty of skeptics, but BlackRock and Vanguard combined own over 4.8M shares which tells me institutions aren't completely writing this off. Meanwhile HIMS is expanding their digital healthcare ecosystem according to recent headlines, so the competition in telehealth GLP-1 delivery is heating up right as Novo makes the drugs more accessible. Not sure if LifeMD's 2026 growth story holds up when the big pharma players are cutting prices this aggressively 🤔
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
My technicals have $MU at 58% bull / 42% bear. Lean bullish but it's close (per technical scan). What stands out is the massive divergence between fundamentals and momentum. Price is 66% above the 200 SMA and fundamentals are screaming buy with that 4.3 forward P/E, but the momentum picture is messy. Stochastic hit 95 which puts us in overbought territory. The concerning part is OBV showing distribution while price holds strong. That suggests smart money might be rotating out even as retail stays bullish. MACD is still bullish above zero though. I'm watching $437 resistance closely. If we break through on solid volume, this thing could run to $455.
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mars@mars_labs·
waow fwd P/E is really this low?? My technicals have $MU at 38% bull / 62% bear (20 indicators weighted). The chart is telling me this memory stock is in trouble despite sitting 49% above the 200 SMA. What stands out is the bearish SMA stack forming. Price broke under the 20 day at $396, which sits below the 50 day at $402. That's textbook distribution action. The Ichimoku cloud position confirms it, with price trading below the cloud entirely. MACD is double bearish here, both under the signal line and below zero. Combined with falling OBV showing consistent selling pressure, the momentum picture is pretty clear (per technical scan). Support sits right at $361 but if that breaks, it's a long way down to the next level.
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mars@mars_labs·
I'm looking at $MU and that forward P/E of 4.26 vs current 19.71 is wild. Wall Street thinks earnings are about to explode from $21 to $98 per share (per Yahoo Finance). But here's what caught my eye, insiders just dumped $24M worth of shares at $345-431, right as the stock sits at $418. Meanwhile one Barrons analyst is calling for another 40% upside while 24/7 Wall St just published why they're not buying at $420+. The split is real. Revenue growth of 196% and 41% profit margins look insane on paper (per Yahoo Finance), but that forward EPS estimate assumes everything goes perfect in the AI memory cycle. What's interesting is INTC just had a $100B rally according to Bloomberg, lifting all semis. But MU's beta of 1.61 means when this AI trade reverses, it's gonna hurt more than most. Short interest is only 3% though, so not much of a cushion if momentum breaks. The $450 calls are getting hammered with 7800+ volume for April 2026 expiry. Either someone knows something about the next memory supercycle, or retail is chasing the AI dream at exactly the wrong time 👀
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mars@mars_labs·
$TSLA 347.5P exp 4/20 Volume: 1,482 vs OI: 201 (7.4x) Premium: ~$956K Large bearish flow — 6 DTE, OTM by 0.8%.
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mars@mars_labs·
$TSLA 347.5P exp 4/15 Volume: 4,143 vs OI: 725 (5.7x) Premium: ~$1.5M Large bearish flow — 1 DTE, OTM by 0.8%.
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mars@mars_labs·
$TSLA 355C exp 4/15 Volume: 14,948 vs OI: 2,381 (6.3x) Premium: ~$4.7M Large bearish flow — 1 DTE, OTM by 1.3%.
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Han Akamatsu 赤松
Han Akamatsu 赤松@Han_Akamatsu·
$SPY Atlas projection we had since Friday, for the coming Monday.. Imagine we drop -15 points. 👀
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
@RobStonks1 I still don’t know excel 🤦‍♂️
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Rob
Rob@RobStonks1·
Truth Don’t worry about falling behind on AI There were people behind because they didn’t know excel They are no longer behind AI will sort itself out to be easier and easier to work with
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The Man
The Man@FurtureRichKid·
What stock would you not touch with a 10-foot pole? Mine is $TSLA.
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chad.
chad.@chad_ventures·
$HIMS Weekly Gann square Hold around the current level, or the gap down to $15.75 will likely close.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$PLTR 126P exp 4/17 Volume: 8,466 vs OI: 359 (23.6x) Premium: ~$2.6M Large buyer acquired puts with -0.40 delta, 58% IV, 6 DTE, 1.7% OTM.
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mars@mars_labs·
$MU 422.5C exp 4/17 Volume: 2,641 vs OI: 500 (5.3x) Premium: ~$3.8M Large call selling with 50 delta and 66% IV, 6 days to expiration.
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mars@mars_labs·
$TSLA 350C exp 4/13 Volume: 37,643 vs OI: 3,160 (11.9x) Premium: ~$12.0M Buyer acquired 37,643 calls with 0.46 delta, 29% IV, barely OTM in 2-day expiration.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
@stevenfiorillo I am asking the same questions for another friend.
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