Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Vikas Patel
20.4K posts
Vikas Patel
@_vikasbp
@employamerica RTs/likes ≠ endorsement, all views here are mine, etc
NYC انضم Şubat 2010
2.5K يتبع589 المتابعون
Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Latest from @_vikasbp & me:
So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation?
Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge
If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising inflation
employamerica.org/inflation-anal…
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Tillis tells my colleague @lindsaywise that he understands why Powell might want to stay on the Fed board until the last loose ends of the DOJ probe are tied off
"I see a rational basis for sticking around until then." wsj.com/livecoverage/s…
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
@mtkonczal @fcastofthemonth @NickTimiraos @_vikasbp And if we focus on the Market-Based Nonhousing subset of source components (to deal with methodological issues and lags)...
Womp womp
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
@mtkonczal @fcastofthemonth @NickTimiraos If you use the Cleveland Fed symmetric 16% trimmed mean approach for PCE source components:
(h/t @_vikasbp )
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Good thread.
Other issue: trimmed mean places a high weight on housing PCE, which is chunky (it’s just two highly related indices) and lags key dynamics.
If the goal is to look at “a billion prices” in real time to robustly assess underlying inflation, trimmed mean has issues
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh dismissed core PCE as "rough swag" and said he'd prefer to focus on better gauges of underlying inflation like median or trimmed mean. This got attention because Dallas Fed trimmed mean was 2.3% in February (y/y)—well below core PCE at 3.0%.
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Exactly this. And everyone in markets knows this, even if many don't have the sand to say it.
Ashley George@ash_georgexx
"Warsh’s monetary policy views have shifted with the occupant of the White House for two decades, with an ever-increasing fixation on whatever aligns with the preferences of President Trump." employamerica.org/monetary-polic…
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
"Are you going to be the president’s human sock puppet?" That question came early on in Warsh's confirmation hearing to be the next Fed chair, and it was a label that was invoked multiple times throughout the Q&A
Shaking off that perception will be difficult for Warsh to do, especially given his ambitions to overhaul the Fed. Nor will it be easy for him to deliver what Trump wants on rates if he chooses to pursue that, setting up new clash when he takes over as chair
nytimes.com/2026/04/22/bus… @nytimes
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Shares of GE Vernova rose as much as 15.2% on Wednesday after the gas turbine and power grid equipment maker reported strong order growth amid rising electricity demand bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
This is quite a comment from someone who served on the FOMC for nearly four years with Kevin Warsh. He says Warsh failed to project independence at his hearing.
Eric Rosengren@EricSRosengren
The Fed Chair hearing did not help the perception of a tainted chair selection process. The unwillingness to disagree with the administration on any policies or who won the 2020 election did not project independence. There will be work to counter the sock puppet analogy image.
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Apart from independence, here are two other things worth watching at the Fed confirmation hearing:
Interest rates. Warsh campaigned for the Fed chair job partly on an AI-driven productivity case for cuts. His opening text only gestures at it—"America's economic growth potential is rising"—while leaning harder on the importance of keeping inflation under control.
He described inflation as a choice for which the Fed must take responsibility, and he has previously faulted the Fed for citing Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a contributor to that year's inflation surge. He now faces a similar shock. Has it changed his thinking? Does he endorse the Fed’s wait-and-see hold to ensure it doesn’t feed into underlying inflation? Or does he think cuts are still warranted? wsj.com/livecoverage/k…
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
From @IrvingSwisher at @employamerica on the problematic monetary and partisan views of Kevin Warsh ahead of his nomination hearing with Senate Banking today.
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
LLMs won't be economically significant until they can display a certain level of human convincingness. So we need a difficult test for that.
How about: Can we get a model that can convince your median startup founder that GDP is actually correctly calculated?
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
As #fertilizer and #diesel prices have increased sharply, we asked our #farmers about fertilizer availability and prices across the U.S. and got responses from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. 🌽🌱🌾 Read more here: fb.org/news-release/n… @FarmBureau
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
RORY MCILROY IS 3-UNDER THROUGH 4 AND HAS A 3 SHOT LEAD
SOMEONE TEST THIS MAN FOR PED’s
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
For those watching the sulphur shock, China restricting access of sulphuric acid, which is used in much basic metal processing. One of several procesed products under restriction. One of many fuel byproducts in shorter supply and key for fertilizer processing also.
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Vikas Patel أُعيد تغريده
As the great geopolitical strategist Snoop Dogg once observed:
"Ain't no fun if the homies can't have none"
Red Sea tollbooth?
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
HOUTHI LEADER ANNOUNCES ESCALATION OF OPERATIONS, EXPECTS UNEXPECTED ACTIONS BASED ON GROUND EVENTS.
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