
Robbie Ferguson | Immutable
3K posts

Robbie Ferguson | Immutable
@0xferg
Co-founder @immutable, thiel fellow. Bringing a billion people to web3 with games.
🦇🔊 Beigetreten Eylül 2009
1.1K Folgt57.3K Follower
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In the next 24 mths, the success rate of new games will fall to the lowest in history.
- AI is collapsing the cost + time to launch
- supply will outpace demand (even in a $200B industry growing +10% YOY)
- CAC is rising due to poor attribution post ATT
- 30% mobile store fees eat +$25 billion a year in studio profit
Only the most efficient studios will survive.
This will require a higher standard across attribution, growth, retention, player data, payments, monetisation, etc...
...all of which are radically improved via web3.
- stablecoins reduce payment fees to ~1%
- rewards programs improve retention, referrals
- in-game economies drive recurring monetisation
- onchain player IDs combine data across multiple channels to solve attribution
If passed, the CLARITY Act will exempt certain "video game" tokens from being digital commodities.
This will give all game studios a clear path to start using these tools, saving them multiple $ billions a year in costs.
The top 5 game studios alone have 1.2 billion MAU.
These players will enter the world of invisible web3, because the games they're playing will no longer be able to justify operating any other way.
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The gap between idea and execution in game dev is becoming trivial. The next 10 yrs will reward studios who prioritise:
1) fun - simple, uncluttered, gameplay loops
2) user data - extremely precise attribution in their growth funnels
How To AI@HowToAI_
Someone just vibe coded a full 3d flight simulator in a single weekend using Claude Code. it runs entirely in the browser. real-world terrain. real locations. you can literally fly anywhere on earth.
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gm
hope every one is having a good d(@Immutable Pl)ay
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In <1 year so far our community has played over 137 million quests on @Immutable Play.
Keep it up. gm.
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we have an issue:
1) 55% of all gaming revenue now comes from mobile: $103B+ per year
2) in 2025 mobile games increased their ad spend to $62B a year
3) post-ATT, almost none of this spend is properly attributed. AppLovin impression share grew 397% YoY as studios scrambled for signal
how do we fix this?
web3
specifically, universal player IDs - aggregating onchain, in-game, and social data into a single attribution source
the efficiency gains we're seeing at @Immutable for small web2 studios have literally saved some games from extinction
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True.
Keep in mind game studios + infra are also fundamentally a lot more efficient now than they were in 2021.
Alexis Ohanian 🗽@alexisohanian
Gaming got written off post-COVID while everyone chased AI, but it’s still a ~$200B market and the incumbents are weaker than they’ve been in years. Last cycle gave us Fortnite and Roblox. This cycle will do the same. At gaming multiples vs AI at 50x revenue, it’s one of the best asymmetric bets in consumer right now. Watch.
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The history of a player's actions is fragmented across Steam, socials, and mobile stores.
This makes it very hard for players to get tailored recommendations; and even harder for games to get meaningful attribution.
@Immutable will be the system of record that solves this.
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