Juan
8.3K posts
@60yContando
Trading no es para loquitos de carretera
What just happened? At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran. Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low. Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran. Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news. By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap. Markets are now closed until Monday.
CURRENT GROWTH PORTFOLIO EXPOSURE • New Age of Defense: 34% • Healthcare: 20% • Digital Platforms: 16% • AI Hardware: 11% • AI Power: 10% • Edge AI: 9% The portfolio currently has 16 positions with an average market cap of ~$3.7B Performance: • Growth Portfolio: +268% • $ARKK: +92% • $QQQ: +64% • $SPY: +54%
Marco Rubio realizing he’s Chuck Norris now.
JUST IN: Hours after President Trump said “I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Axios reported the administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island. Kharg processes 90 percent of Iranian oil exports. The contradiction is not a contradiction. It is the strategy operating on two frequencies simultaneously. The public frequency says no troops. The planning frequency says Kharg. Both are true because they serve different audiences at different timescales. “No troops” manages the domestic voter who remembers Iraq and Afghanistan. “Occupy or blockade Kharg” manages the Pentagon planner who needs a mechanism to sever the IRGC’s last major revenue stream. The leak to Axios is itself a weapon: it signals to Tehran that the option exists without committing Washington to execute it. Kharg Island sits 25 kilometres off the Iranian coast in the northern Persian Gulf. It is a loading terminal, not a military fortress. Tankers dock, fill with crude, and depart through Hormuz. Before the war, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day loaded from Kharg. After the strikes, Iran claims production is “fully operational and uninterrupted.” But exports are effectively halted because every P&I club voided war risk coverage and 97 percent of commercial traffic through Hormuz collapsed. The oil is produced. It cannot leave. The IRGC adapted. It built a $2 million toll system. Pay the fee, receive clearance via VHF radio, transit with AIS verification. The Financial Times confirmed the payments. Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracked 89 to 90 vessels transiting under some form of IRGC clearance between March 1 and 15. The toll funds the same provincial commands whose sealed packets created the closure. The blockade finances itself. A Kharg blockade would cut the one revenue mechanism Iran still controls. If the US interdicts tankers loading at Kharg through naval presence or aerial denial, Iran cannot sell crude even to shadow fleet operators or toll-paying intermediaries. The A7A5 stablecoin corridor that processed $72 to $93 billion in sanctions-evasion flows loses its primary commodity input. The IRGC toll system loses its product. The provincial commands lose their funding. The sealed packets that govern Hormuz continue executing, but the money that sustains the doctrine depletes. The administration has already built the architecture to support this without American boots on the island. Twenty-three point five billion dollars in arms just shipped to UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan. Patriot PAC-3 batteries protect the surrounding Gulf infrastructure from retaliation. THAAD radars extend early warning. Chinook helicopters provide logistics. Six allies pledged Hormuz safe passage support. Bessent is tracking defections and freezing leadership bank accounts. The kinetic campaign degrades Iranian offensive capability daily. The financial campaign degrades Iranian loyalty daily. A Kharg interdiction would degrade Iranian revenue daily. Three degradation tracks converging on the same target: IRGC survivability. Trump told the press he would not put troops anywhere and that he certainly would not tell them if he did. The second sentence negated the first. It was meant to. The purpose of saying “no troops” while simultaneously leaking “Kharg blockade” to Axios is to create uncertainty that is itself deterrence. Tehran cannot know whether the leak is preparation or posture. The uncertainty forces the IRGC to defend Kharg against a threat that may or may not materialise, diverting resources from Hormuz operations, provincial commands, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure. The island is 25 kilometres offshore. It processes the oil that funds the war. And the administration is publicly denying and privately considering the one move that would end the funding model while the strait stays closed and the molecules stay trapped. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
