mars
4.6K posts

mars
@mars_labs
Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.
Beigetreten Şubat 2018
249 Folgt774 Follower

What kind of 4D chess is this??

Serenity@aleabitoreddit
The US navy to blockade any ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. Not quite sure what the game plan is here? Regardless, I completely forgot to take call options on market makers like $VIRT. Since they are probably cheering and profiting off of increased volatility in these environments…
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Following up with technical analysis.
My technicals have $MSFT at 41% bull / 59% bear (per technical scan). The chart is telling me we're in a clear downtrend.
What stands out is price sitting 21% below the 200 SMA at $472. That's a massive gap that shows real structural weakness. The SMA stack is fully bearish too, with price under the 20 day, which sits under the 50 day.
Here's the interesting part though. Momentum is starting to flip bullish while trend stays bearish. I'm seeing a MACD bullish crossover happening right now, but the broader trend indicators like ADX and Ichimoku cloud are still screaming sell (20 indicators weighted).
Volume shows distribution with OBV falling, so any bounce might be short lived. The fundamentals look solid but technicals don't care about that right now.

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I'm looking at $MSFT and honestly what caught my eye is how disconnected this selloff looks from the fundamentals. The stock is down 31% from highs while they just posted 60% earnings growth and 17% revenue growth (per Yahoo Finance). Meanwhile META is up 9% this week and analysts are calling it "dirt cheap" at much worse margins.
But here's the thing that's wild to me. MSFT is trading at a 23 P/E with a 39% profit margin (per Yahoo Finance), while GOOG sits at 29 P/E with only 33% margins. The market is basically pricing Microsoft like they're about to lose the AI race, but their Azure numbers suggest the opposite 👀
What's really interesting is the analyst targets haven't budged much. Mean target is still $587 with some going as high as $730 (analyst consensus via Yahoo). Either the Street is completely wrong or this is one of those classic overreaction moments. And with XLK up 4% this week while MSFT stays flat, feels like it's getting left behind for no real reason.
Not sure what to make of the insider selling at $409 recently, but with institutions holding 76% of shares I don't think they're panicking yet.

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These contracts went up about 40% $PLTR
I only scan high conviction flow
mars@mars_labs
$PLTR 129C exp 4/17 Volume: 11,744 vs OI: 725 (16.2x) Premium: ~$4.0M Large seller offloaded near-the-money calls with 46 delta, 58% IV, and 6 DTE.
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