Sina Toossi@SinaToossi
👇Indeed, as upper-tier interceptors are depleted, Iran is increasingly able to get more through— including payload profiles that would've otherwise been more manageable.
This is the long-term attritional dynamic Iran has been aiming for with Israel: fewer launches, but more getting through, more landing—including on or near sensitive targets.
At the same time, the U.S. and Israel appear to be running out of targets that can meaningfully degrade Iran’s warfighting capacity.
This is the lens through which Trump’s threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure should be understood: a shift toward countervalue targeting, reflecting the difficulty of effectively striking counterforce military assets.
This includes those Iranian assets underpinning its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
On the military front, the trajectory is only getting more and more unfavorable for Netanyahu and Trump.