Patrick.om

🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ War marches on and President Trump committed to weeks more fighting; Dated Brent crude prices hit their highest level since 2008 above $140/bbl and all crudes are experiencing record backwardation. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

Second US Black Hawk Helicopter Struck by Iranian Forces

‼️ Bad to Worse Now it is reported TWO helicopters were hit by Iranian fire earlier today during the rescue attempt of the downed F-15E pilots. Both helicopters were apparently able to put down over the Iraqi border and the crews were rescued. nbcnews.com/world/iran/liv…

Day 3 of the @IslanderWORLD suspension. It’s mass-reporting on an inconvenient topic, with zero specific violations ever cite — silencing "polite", fact-based anti-war analysis right as the world burns. Ironically I spoke out on censorship and this action hit on April 1st. April fools indeed. This is bigger than one account. The stated reason flipped from “ban evasion” to “multiple or repeat violations.” Still no posts referenced. The flood of replies calling the content fair, excellent, and high-value makes it clear: this was about reach and then targetted mass bot reporting, not content. Here’s the real reputational cost to X: When independent, pro-sanity voices get disappeared this easily, users start asking why stay. Backups shift to alternative platforms and analysts hedge. The platform that built its brand as the champion of "free-speech" begins looking like the old regime with selective politicized enforcement that drives away the very truth-seekers who made it grow. Humanity needs open discourse on forever wars, censorship and power. Silencing one of the cleanest voices in the space undercuts that mission more than any single post ever could. @elonmusk @X @nikitabier is this worth the long-term damage? #FreeIslanderWORLD Appreciate every calm, factual reply keeping the pressure on. Perhaps the right eyes are watching.

Best community note ever

🇮🇷 Bad day for the USAF Today's reported incidents: 🔸F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing. 🔸A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered. 🔸HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit during CSAR mission and crash-landed across the border in Iraq. Crew reportedly rescued. Other incidents: 🔸KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv. 🔸F-16CJ "Wild Weasel" (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar. 🔸KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.

💢 Past 24 hours — U.S. aircraft incidents across the region ▪️ One F-15E Strike Eagle (fighter-bomber): downed; 1 pilot rescued, 1 crew missing, search continues ▪️ Two HH-60W Jolly Green II (combat rescue helicopter) hit by Iran: all crew accounted for, both landed safely ▪️ One A-10 Warthog (close air support jet) crashed into Persian Gulf: pilot rescued ▪️ Another A-10 aircraft hit; made emergency landing with one engine disabled ▪️ F-16 (multirole fighter): declared emergency over Iraq; landed safely ▪️ KC-135 Stratotanker (refueling aircraft): declared emergency over Israel; landed safely ▪️ Iran also claimed it struck and downed another U.S. jet near Qeshm Island yesterday

The Nuances of Iranian Asymmetric Warfare on Land, Sea, and Air Its biggest challenge remains detecting these operations in time without relying on medium- and long-range radars. That is the real limitation of Iran’s current asymmetric air warfare tactic. We often struggle to understand asymmetric warfare. The common idea of war is simple: you hit the enemy with everything you have, as efficiently as possible, aiming for a quick victory. That is the concept of conventional war, which gives superpowers and large, modern armies a massive advantage, because a direct, short-term clash tends to devastate a smaller force. Asymmetric warfare works differently. It is based on lure, lure, and lure again, and only then ambush. The goal is not a quick victory, but to wear down the adversary through attrition, targeting economic, political, and psychological pressure much more than pure military destruction. In Iran’s case, its resilience and missile-based attrition strategy clearly aim to erode domestic support for the U.S. government, increase pressure on Gulf and Asian allies, and generate political and economic stress in Europe, including through inflation. All of this is executed through tactical means that serve multiple strategic axes, all converging to create an environment of stress and chaos for Trump. This entire approach operates under well-defined doctrines of asymmetric warfare at sea, on land, and in the air. When we see the U.S. Navy stationed 700 km off the Iranian coast, many people ask: “Where are Iran’s anti-ship missiles?” Anxious American politicians even claim that “everything is under control” and that the ships can safely advance. Can Iran attack those ships? Yes, it can. But it chooses not to, at least not yet. Those ships, operating at 700 km, are already at the limit of the F-18’s combat radius, the main aircraft on American carriers. And they are obviously well within Iranian missile range. During the conflict with the Houthis, the Yemenis launched Sayyad/Quds-Z0 missiles with an 800 km range. Today, they already speak of Palestine-2 and Quds-4 versions that easily exceed 1,000 km. If the Houthi arsenal is essentially Iranian technology, what is the real range of Iran’s anti-ship missiles today? It certainly goes well beyond 700 km. But asymmetric warfare is not a 50-meter sprint. It is a carefully planned marathon. The Iranians know that the critical point is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. That’s why they try to lure the ships closer, a bait the U.S. Navy has so far refused to take. Join my Substack to read full article: open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

🇺🇸 BREAKING!!! ANOTHER US AIRCRAFT EMERGENCY! A USAF F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52 configured for Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses, SEAD) transmitted a 7700 emergency squawk over Saudi Arabian airspace near the Iraqi border. The aircraft has since disappeared from FlightRadar tracking.

Pray for our troops in harm’s way. Pray that our leaders end this foolish war.

Iran announces the capture of an American pilot The pilot managed to eject after the aircraft was hit by an air defense system. After that, the Americans began a rescue operation with the help of Black Hawk helicopters and a C-130 Hercules aircraft. F-35 fighters and MQ-9 drones were also involved in the search operation. The Iranian military captured a US Air Force F-35 fighter pilot, according to the Tasnim news agency. @sashakots

NEWS: U.S. and Israeli officials acknowledged that Iran downed a U.S. fighter jet over its territory, according to The New York Times, as a search-and-rescue operation was underway and the fate of the crew remained unclear. Earlier, Drop Site reported that an Iranian official said a U.S. F-15 warplane was shot down over southern Tehran Province, with intense fire at the crash site, and that the strike prevented the pilots from ejecting, with no remains found.

What Search and Rescue Operations Over Iran Reveal In the last few hours, at least one A-10, two helicopters, one C-130, and one RQ-9 drone were spotted flying with relative freedom over an Iranian province. These are five much easier targets to shoot down than an F-15. Yet none of them were engaged. And that wasn’t by accident, it was a deliberate choice by Iran, which apparently has no intention of escalating the anti-air war against this type of target in corridors leading into the country’s interior. This reminds me of a famous phrase from the Iran-Iraq War: “Iran lets them in.” Iran truly seems to be inviting a ground operation on its territory, and it appears very confident about it. Another important point is the footage of armed members of Iranian tribes firing rifles at long range toward American helicopters. They posed no real threat, but the scenes clearly show a strong sense of unity and fighting spirit even in the most remote regions. That is an extremely significant factor when assessing the real dangers of a ground invasion.

BreakingNews: The US confirmed the loss of pilots over Iran after downing their jet. I thought the airspace over Iran was cleared for the US and Israeli jets?

This is what pre-escalation looks like, imho...

BREAKING 🚨: Turkey Turkish Lira falls to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar 🇹🇷📉

Additional footage of U.S. Air Force HC-130J “Combat King II” Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Aircraft and UH-60 Black Hawks flying at low-altitude this morning over Southern Iran, likely searching for the crew of a downed F-15E Strike Eagle.

This is amazing! I wonder if the elephant will remember

“Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants”

IRGC claims it struck Oracle's data center in Dubai This is systemic escalation. The whole economy is at risk jpost.com/middle-east/ir… #Iran #Geopolitics #Cyberwar #EnergyCrisis