CJ

230 posts

CJ

CJ

@zerodarkcb

micro-saas; public equities investor; bikes

Joined Mart 2022
229 Following67 Followers
CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Boxing is mostly to get around lock ups or to give the impression you do still own something (e.g. post IPO to keep window dressing). Why box a standard long position, especially with such size? Especially when you have to pay the borrow cost (which is minimal with a name like META, but still)
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Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner@altcap·
@daveneur Thanks for asking Dave. I have said many times beware of 13Fs - they often do not reflect economic exposure. They do not include shorts so if a manager “boxes” a position by selling an equal number of shares short - the 13f continues to only show the long position . 🧐📈
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Dave Neur
Dave Neur@daveneur·
Hey Brad @altcap, you mentioned in January in an interview that you no longer held any Meta shares. The latest 13F came out and shows Meta as a 19.6% portfolio weight. So have you gotten back in for Meta? What shifted? You were optimistic for Meta AI in your May 5 CNBC interview.
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Don’t really think I need 2FA and a saved passkey for my Nevada Energy account. If someone wants to log in and check out my usage charts or pay the bill, go ahead
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Been a big fan of telling Codex "my developer did this" when I'm fixing Opus 4.7's mistakes
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
@getseline could you guys add the ability to view historical usage by billing cycle?
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
@jmduke “Bet on what you know” being their tagline does not go hard in this situation
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Had to upgrade MacOS for 120Hz on the XDR
CJ tweet media
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Maybe an unpopular opinion, but the fights on UFC fight nights have been exponentially higher quality than the numbered major cards
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
One thing that has completely changed: In the early days of the AI model launches, it was very in vogue for people at funds/investment firms to not want to invest in the labs. There was a very popular consensus view I heard numerous times that yes, OpenAI / Anthropic were early movers, but “you should own the picks and shovels” (whatever that means - it was the widely held view), because models had zero switching cost and it was too early to see any differentiation. Plus the DeepSeek scare happened and convinced everyone that new models could spin up out of nowhere and take share. That was 3 years ago. It’s remarkable how fast things change. One: we have quickly consolidated on 3, maybe 4 models (if you include Grok). It’s really Anthropic for SaaS/code and OAI/Gemini for consumer, IMO Two: everyone is piling into Anthropic / OpenAI shares where possible and realizing they can launch a feature in a week that’s destroying the “picks and shovels” businesses that they previously wanted to back
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
@mylesmarino @StockMKTNewz Love the concept but ordering DoorDash is part of the downfall of young men in our society and so I cannot participate. Nor do I need yet another set of credits to track
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Sometimes I worry AI is going to one-shot replace everything anytime now, but then I also just spent a full daily not able to connect a Django app to Supabase because it's never spelled out that they don't support IPV6 connections and you have to use an IPV4 pooler. AI did not figure this out
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
My favourite investor of all time. My quick notes: - TEVA case study. Value trapped name finally undergoing a growth cycle. Pays to be early - Importance of mentors in public markets - Never got deep fundamental skills; no formal education in financials and got his own book early - (Not new for this interview) Biggest skill set is trigger pulling & sizing. When you're right, that bet had better be big, and vice versa - Fed going to cut but we're at top of market valuation range - Positions: Less excited about the AI trade and have reduced exposure there; increased positions in Japan and Korea; short USD; long copper (commodity) - 18-36 month position framing, with the right to change mind immediately - Contrarianism is overrated, the crowd is often correct. Extreme conviction > what consensus is (including if you're with consensus!) - NVDA story (sort of a repeat of the Norges podcast). Trusted his team to analyze trends and bring him exciting ideas. Couldn't even spell the company name when they came to him. They also looked at where top graduates were going (all the shift from crypto went into AI) to work. When there's enormous changes in the market, public market investors cannot get enough, hence the massive run up. Didn't enough know the EPS of NVDA but it doesn't matter; the trend / theme was spot on. Modeling it out was irrelevant. Sold too early but still made 5-6x invested capital - Don't unlearn anything, scars can help you out. Have more scars than you can imagine. Would throw up 1-2x per week earlier in the career. But over 15 years of imposter syndrome likely did not help - Technical analysis has become kind of useless as it's gotten quantified / systematized - Hates to lose, to the point where it's a sickness
Morgan Stanley@MorganStanley

Watch Hard Lessons, as legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller sits down with Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali, sharing how he would construct a portfolio if he had to start over today, why contrarianism is overrated, and which stock he regrets selling too early.

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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
I used to actually believing that cutting the cord and signing up for streaming was going to be a benefit to the consumer. Yet here I sit years later, paying for every sort of "plus”, pro, and Max service you can imagine, and yet every movie I'm interested in has to be rented on Amazon Prime. All I see on streaming is “love is blind” and “selling manhattan” and other garbage reality shows. Smh I’m looking for Act of Valor and Training Day
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
@NWSReno This was at 12:20p PST in South Reno!
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NWS Reno
NWS Reno@NWSReno·
Snow!! 🌨️❄️ How much have you received so far? Here's a reminder on measuring snow, because it's been awhile. Grab a measuring tool, get out and measure, then drop your results here! We will be looking for amounts and the time of the measurement, and pictures always help!
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
Almost at 7 inches now at noon
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
5.5 inches at 11:00am PST in South Reno @sierraavalanche
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CJ
CJ@zerodarkcb·
@mylesmarino Don’t forget that the buttons for “my repos”, “PRs”, and “branches” are all sort of hidden and put in inconvenient places
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Myles Marino
Myles Marino@mylesmarino·
On GitHub, where we are cutting spend > We are actively looking to leave. The platform has become unstable. We might spin up a self-hosted solution, but our spend here is dropping to zero... GitHub is (currently) the best place for us to host and use Git. Git has been around for a long time, and there are a lot of good things about it, but there are also a lot of terrible things about it. Reviewing large files, poor terminology, submodules as an abstraction. GitHub is specifically really bad at these now, and they've gotten worse. I've been seeing some Git competitors pop up over the past few years, and even another one that came out today. I think we are likely, if we find a really good Git alternative, it will just become a no-brainer:
Thomas Dohmke@ashtom

tl;dr Today, we’re announcing our new company @EntireHQ to build the next developer platform for agent–human collaboration. Open, scalable, independent, and backed by a $60M seed round. Plus, we are shipping Checkpoints to automatically capture agent context. In the last three months, the fundamental role of the software developer has been refactored. The incredible improvements from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI on their latest models made coding agents so good, in many situations it’s easier now to prompt than to write code yourself. The terminal has become the new center of gravity on our computers again. The best engineers can run a dozen agents at once. Yet, we still depend on a software development lifecycle that makes code in files and folders the central artifact, in repositories and in pull requests. The concept of understanding and reviewing code is a dying paradigm. It’s going to be replaced by a workflow that starts with intent and ends with outcomes expressed in natural language, product and business metrics, as well as assertions to validate correctness. This is the purpose of our new company @EntireHQ, to build the world's next developer platform where agents and humans can collaborate, learn, and ship together. A platform that will be open, scalable, and independent for every developer, no matter which agent or model you use. Our vision is centered on three core components: 1) A Git-compatible database that unifies code, intent, constraints, and reasoning in a single version-controlled system. 2) A universal semantic reasoning layer that enables multi-agent coordination through the context graph. 3) An AI-native user interface that reinvents the software development lifecycle for agent–human collaboration. In pursuit of this vision, we’re proud to be backed by a $60M seed round led by @felicis, with support from @MadronaVentures, @m12VC, @BasisSet, @20vcFund, @CherryVentures, @picuscap, and @Global_Founders alongside a global group of builders and operators, including @GergelyOrosz, @theo, Jerry Yang, @oliveur, @garrytan, and many others, who all recognize that the time is now to take such a big swing. And we begin shipping today with Checkpoints, a new primitive that automatically captures agent context as first-class, versioned data in Git. When you commit code generated by an agent, Checkpoints captures the full session alongside the commit: the transcript, prompts, files touched, token usage, tool calls, and more. It’s our first crack at the semantic layer, as open source CLI on GitHub. From here on out, no more stealth. We are building in the open and as open source! More to come soon, in the meantime check out all the details in our blog.

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