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Reda
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Reda
@redamor_
Latest breaking news, world news, weather, news junkie, and a nature guru. White House + Hill updates
Se unió Haziran 2015
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Today is Election Day in America! We have two big elections, one in Wisconsin and another in Georgia. Read below for the full overviews!
1) The Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
The Candidates: Maria Lazar (R-aligned) vs. Chris Taylor (D-aligned)
Commentary: While these races are technically non-partisan, Lazar is clearly the conservative candidate while Taylor is the more liberal one.
There is currently a liberal majority of 4-3, and this Supreme Court race is to replace Rebecca Bradley who is a conservative judge. A Taylor victory would result in a 5-2 liberal majority, ensuring liberals have a majority in Wisconsin until 2030.
In April 2025, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race got a lot of attention due to the fact that over $100 million got poured into this race, with over $25 million from Elon Musk himself. The liberal candidate won by 10 points.
In 2026, the Wisconsin Republican Party is not investing many resources in this race because they do not think they have a chance. Democrats have been over performing in special elections across the country in 2025 and 2026, and Wisconsin is seen as a pure swing state during non-special elections, so even if Republicans did invest heavily in this race like they did in 2025, it probably wouldn’t be competitive.
What the markets say: The overall Kalshi odds have Taylor at a 99% favorite. The interesting market here is by what margin though. The markets are favoring Taylor to win by 12-15% right now. A wide margin for a swing state like Wisconsin that Trump win in 2024
Margin brackets:
Under 9%: 16%
9-12%: 27%
12-15%: 29%
15-18%: 19%
18%+: 21%
2) The GA-14 House Special Election
The candidates: Clayton Fuller (R) vs. Shawn Harris (D)
Commentary: This special election is being held to fill the House seat of Former House of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene after she feuded with Donald Trump over the Epstein Files and other issues and then abruptly resigned.
In 2024, Marjorie Taylor Greene carried this district by 29 points, defeating Democrat Shawn Harris. In 2026, Shawn Harris is running again.
The first round was held on March 10, 2025. Shawn Harris finished first with 37% of the vote, while the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Clayton Fuller finished in a close second with 35% of the vote.
Because the Republican vote was split across multiple candidates, no candidate broke the 50% threshold needed to win elections in Georgia, so the runoff between Fuller and Harris is being held today.
What the markets are saying: Currently, Fuller is seen as the 98% favorite on Kalshi, but the margin of victory market is the most interesting.
The 10-15% bracket is seen as the favorite with a 35% likelihood. Donald Trump won this seat by a whopping 36 points, so the favored result would represent a 20-25 Democratic over performance which is higher than the average over performance we’ve seen from Democrats in special elections in 2025-26, which is in the 15-20 range.
Margin brackets:
Fuller Under 5%: 12%
5-10%: 20%
10-15%: 34%
15-20%: 30%
20%+: 20%


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🚨🚨🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷U.S. special forces rescued the second crew member of the F-15 fighter jet that was shot down over Iran, three U.S. officials told me. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/04/05/ira…
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BREAKING: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "paranoid" about losing his job, which Trump Admin officials say contributed to the firing of the US Army’s top general on Thursday, per NY Post.
Details include:
1. Trump Admin officials say Pete Hegseth is worried about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll taking his job
2. Hegseth on Thursday demanded the resignation of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, Driscoll’s top aide, for reasons that were not publicly stated
3. "This is all driven by the insecurity and paranoia that Pete has developed since Signalgate," an official said
4. "It has really gotten under Hegseth’s skin. He is trying to make everyone around Driscoll suffer for no reason," an official said
There seem to be growing tensions at the Department of War.
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Breaking: A US fighter jet has been shot down over Iran, three US sources said confirming Iranian state media reports. US forces have launched search and rescue efforts, the sources said. Potential rescue efforts appeared to be captured in video posted to social media and geolocated by CNN.
cnn.com/2026/04/03/pol…
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BREAKING: President Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, sources tell NBC News. nbcnews.com/politics/justi…
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News: The president has informed Pam Bondi that her time as AG is nearing an end, multiple sources tell me.
Formal announcement hasn’t yet come aka all the normal caveats that he could change his mind apply; he’s been speaking with advisors on a possible replacement in recent days (as others have reported this week) and Bondi is aware of that as well.
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President Trump has privately discussed ousting Attorney General Pam Bondi and replacing her with EPA administrator Lee Zeldin, sources say. cnn.it/4cglgwN
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We're going around the Moon. Come watch with us. Artemis II's four-astronaut crew is lifting off from @NASAKennedy on an approximately 10-day mission that will bring us closer to living on the Moon and Mars. The launch window opens at 6:24pm ET (2224 UTC). twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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