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TRUMP: WILL KNOCK OUT REST OF MISSILES AND SYSTEMS IF WE DONT MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN

POWELL: PEOPLE NOT SAYING WE NEED TO HIKE NOW

POWELL: IF WE NEED TO HIKE WE WILL SIGNAL AND DO

POWELL: FED INDEPENDENCE IS AT RISK

TRADERS NOW SEE RATE HIKE AS MORE LIKELY THAN RATE CUT THIS YEAR Wall Street traders now see a slightly higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike than a cut this year, following hawkish signals from policymakers. Interest-rate futures show an 11% chance of a hike, up from 5% earlier Wednesday and zero on Tuesday, while the odds of a rate cut sit around 2%. Although the Fed kept language suggesting cuts are more likely, three Fed presidents opposed it, and Chair Jerome Powell signaled it could be dropped soon as inflation remains persistent.

U.S. TO WITHDRAW AIRCRAFT CARRIER FROM MIDDLE EAST The Pentagon will send the USS Gerald R. Ford home in the coming days after a 10-month deployment, easing strain on its ~4,500 sailors. The move reduces U.S. military firepower in the region as Iran peace talks remain stalled.

POWELL: LITERALLY STAYING BECAUSE OF THE ACTIONS OF THE ADMINISTRATION POWELL: NO CHOICE BUT TO STAY

I’m afraid that if President Trump really wants to continue the blockade for months while minimising the impact on US consumers, there’s only a (bad) way: more SPR releases and/or oil export restrictions. The White House has consistently said neither is on the table. Let’s see.

Powell: "I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined."

The dumb take is that Powell has lost control. The smart take is that this is the FOMC telling Warsh he wont have control...

NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.

Stocks remain elevated despite higher much oil prices & higher yields in recent weeks, effectively pricing in an even greater growth boom ahead just as conditions are getting more challenging.

When oil refineries go "max" jet and "max" diesel, they (necessarily) also reduce output of other products. The market is starting to price it.

The world is calling on the barrel of last resort — and it’s brutal for the US. American total petroleum exports (crude and refined products) surged last week to an all-time high >14m b/d. The price? US total inventories plunged at ~3.5 million b/d last week. Unsustainable.

Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination clears the Senate Banking Committee, as expected, on a 13-11 party-line vote. He receives no Democratic support. Sen. Warnock says he is disappointed at Warsh's answers to written questions. "Did he take this process seriously?"

US growth expectations still look too high for '26 and US inflation expectations still look too low.

WTI CRUDE JUMPS 5% INTRADAY TO $106.50 PER BARREL. BRENT CRUDE BREAKS ABOVE $109, UP 4.9%, THE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 23

OIL FUTURES BRIEFLY EXTEND GAINS AFTER LARGER-THAN-EXPECTED DECLINE IN U.S. CRUDE STOCKPILES; BRENT, U.S. CRUDE LAST UP NEAR 5%

TRUMP WOULD CONSIDER MILITARY ACTION IF IRAN WON'T ACT: AXIOS

*TRUMP SAYS HE REJECTS IRAN OFFER TO REOPEN HORMUZ: AXIOS