Peter Todd

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Peter Todd

Peter Todd

@peterktodd

@opentimestamps founder pgp: 37EC7D7B0A217CDB4B4E007E7FAB114267E4FA04 🇺🇦🇮🇱🇹🇼

Inscrit le Mayıs 2013
1.1K Abonnements204.4K Abonnés
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
The hardest part about being a contrarian is knowing when not to be.
Pedro L. Gonzalez@emeriticus

The mind virus of conspiratorial thinking has been devastating. It completely paralyzes analysis and reduces everything to entertainment, fodder for clicks, traffic, and attention. It’s like a caricature of the Straussian close reading of texts: the “real” meaning is always hidden from view, and being unable to see it means you don’t have access to esoteric insights and knowledge. In reality, you’re just reading it wrong. In the case of Russia right now, nobody really knows what’s happening. But that doesn’t matter; all you have to do is come up with the most absurd theory, and the more absurd it is, the truer it must be.

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Andy Zeng
Andy Zeng@andyzengineer·
The first time we rolled a robot into a new warehouse, it didn’t perform as well as we expected. It took us an entire day of debugging, before we realized it was something simple… the cameras were wired completely wrong. 🤦 Left camera to right gripper 🔀 right camera to left gripper. But what was interesting was, the model still kind of worked. In post-training data, left side = bin, right side = conveyor. But even when swapped, the model would still do the task—just slightly worse. Enough to fool us into thinking it was something else for hours… until the moment we switched the cameras back. Then it worked great. This wasn’t the first time we’ve seen emergent ambidexterity. During a packing demo last year, we spotted the robot using the “wrong” hand to shake a USB brick out of a tight baggie. Totally outside the post-training data (we watched all 17 hrs of it to double check). 100% left hand, but for some reason at inference time, it felt the need to use the right hand. Nothing in the model architecture could obviously explain this kind of invariance. If these models are headed where I think they are, imagine one day having a generalist “substrate of intelligence” where you can plug in any number of sensors and actuators, and the whole thing just springs to life. It wouldn’t matter how you wired it up. It would just work. That would be pretty cool.
Generalist@GeneralistAI

GEN-1 puts plushies into polybags, in a warehouse outside the lab in New Hampshire.

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Saint Javelin
Saint Javelin@saintjavelin·
These are the kinds of scenes the world is used to seeing from Ukraine . Now the same footage is coming from Russia. This is the new reality of the war Moscow started. In Yelets, Lipetsk region, strike drones reportedly hit the city’s industrial zone. The full results of the raid are still unknown.
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
Kramatorsk
Peter Todd tweet media
Ukraine 🇺🇦 Norsk
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
@n0m3ncl4tur3 +1 To be clear, I'm not assuming odds here. Just pointing out that in theory there is genuine demand. So simply providing it would almost be enough to make a profit through averaging. Of course, the markets aren't so simplistic. So you need to do something more sophisticated.
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nomenclature
nomenclature@n0m3ncl4tur3·
@peterktodd The original post assumes the bot is getting 50/50 odds on every bet which is usually not the case.
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
If prediction markets are getting used efficiently, for insurance, you could almost expect this bot to make money. Why? Because to buy insurance with prediction markets, usually you're betting yes: Yes Amazon AWS will will; Yes rain will come. Thus, the bot provides liquidity.
Sterling Crispin 🕊️@sterlingcrispin

Introducing: Nothing Ever Happens A @Polymarket bot that automatically buys "No" for every non-sports market and holds to resolution. Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? Stop over thinking it. Nothing Ever Happens. github.com/sterlingcrispi…

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Andy Ngo
Andy Ngo@MrAndyNgo·
I’ve done reporting in Hungary & people are applying an inaccurate US-framing to the election result. The opposition that won in Hungary came out of Orban’s Fidesz party. The Tisza party is also right-wing, just less skeptical of the EU. They are anti-mass migration & pro-family.
Andy Ngo tweet mediaAndy Ngo tweet media
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh

🚨 IT'S OFFICIAL: Elon Musk is sounding the alarm that Hungary has FALLEN to Soros Right-wing PM Viktor Orban just lost the national election, and Alex Soros — son of George Soros — is celebrating ELON: "Soros Organization has taken over Hungary" The people will REGRET THIS!

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Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@DrewPavlou·
New Hungarian leader Peter Magyar recently accused migrant workers of eating ducks and goldfish from Budapest Zoo. This is a positive sign. Hopefully he will keep Hungary’s strict approach to migration and social cohesion while rejecting the dog shit pro-CCP and pro-Putin foreign policy of Orbán. This would be best case scenario. Hopefully a conservative government without cartoonish corruption and dog shit Third Worldist anti-West foreign policy.
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 tweet media
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Kama
Kama@Kama_Kamilia·
Do we have any indication of how this guy is doing in the Hungarian elections? He had posters everywhere, I’m assuming he’s doing numbers right now
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
Where's the outrage from our alt-right architecture accounts?
Victoria@victoriaslog

In 1934, Russians destroyed St. Nicholas Military Cathedral, where Cossacks once prayed. They leveled the entire area to destroy the memory of Ivan Mazepa, who personally financed it and fought for Ukraine’s independence from Russian influence. Later, they replaced it with a House of Pioneers and the “Salut” hotel, one of the ugliest Soviet buildings in Kyiv, which still stands today. 📍Kyiv, Ukraine

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S. Ashton-Cirillo
S. Ashton-Cirillo@AshtonCirillo·
How's that russian cease fire coming?
Peter Todd@peterktodd

@BitPaine Nonsense. Russia has agreed to ceasefires plenty of times before. They use them to rearm. Peace is achieved when evil people are dead.

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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
@twistall @blind_via Actually, tantalums might win in cases where microphonics is an issue. MLCC's can make quite good microphones... I've never considered that tradeoff in detail myself.
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BlindVia
BlindVia@blind_via·
What the Heck, why would they put a 555 timer in a BGA package. Texas Instruments, why would you do this?
BlindVia tweet mediaBlindVia tweet media
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
@twistall @blind_via Depending! At a previous job we had a complete ban on electrolytic and tantalum capacitors for reliability reasons. So I'd end up designing boards with hundreds of dollars worth of bulk ceramic capacitance. Didn't matter as production quantities were usually ten or so.
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Twistall Tweet
Twistall Tweet@twistall·
@peterktodd @blind_via Mostly comes down to dollars and cents. Can you afford $2.50 a system? Is your micro’s clock good enough? Are you space-constrained?
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Peter Todd
Peter Todd@peterktodd·
@twistall @blind_via Depends on the circumstances. There are definitely applications where even a 50% tolerance on timing is fine. But the timing function absolutely can't fail.
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Twistall Tweet@twistall·
@peterktodd @blind_via In a word, reliability. You don’t want your system’s timing to be at the mercy of some $0.003 part. It’s ok if you’re operating at room temperature and not trying to communicate with other systems. If you can’t ‘get off the bus and walk’ then you need a purpose-built oscillator.
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Peter Todd retweeté
calle
calle@callebtc·
telegram is the biggest psyop in privacy history. no encryption by default. vast majority of the 1B users send private messages in clear plain text to the telegram servers. most users wrongly assumes that they have pRiVaCy because durov said so in a podcast. it's a literal affinity scam. TELEGRAM IS NOT A PRIVACY MESSENGER. I don't understand why none of his podcast hosts ever pushes back on this obvious, blatant, dangerous bullshit.
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Jeremy Kauffman 🦔🌲🌕
Jeremy Kauffman 🦔🌲🌕@jeremykauffman·
According to the CDC, 67% of new HIV cases are from male gay sex. Gay males are under 2% of the population. Due to the false negative rate of HIV tests, this results in a fascinating phenomenon: Untested straight male blood is as safe as HIV-tested gay male blood.
Jeremy Kauffman 🦔🌲🌕 tweet media
TroodonVet (Comms open on VGen)@troodonvet

Fun fact: the reason why HIV was associated with gays and lesbians is because they reported the disease. The disease affects everyone including the straights, but they kept it hidden because most of them get/spread the disease to their spouse because of cheating/prostitution.

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