AAMarkets

Evidence that BTC is currently in the early stages of its next bull-run (a thread)....

Oil feels/looks structurally topped here. These sharp accelerations caused my temporary geopolitical catalysts almost always tend to retrace their moves. Bad news for those expecting inflationary pressures to drive rate hikes. Probably dealing with the opposite scenario moving fwd.

@PapaJambi Yes but they don’t need to keep growing rev at 60% to render the stock undervalued here. As long as they can keep acquiring customers at accretive LTV/CAC, profitability will compound moving fwd. And there’s still a ton of low hanging fruit out there for them

@AAMarkets That >60% growth isn’t sustainable, largely driven by the reduction in reinsurance leading to a larger portion of IFP being recognized as revenue. The boost from this will dwindle by mid 2027. IFP growth is the better way to measure LMND’s growth, still impressively at 32% yoy.

I like $LMND here for a move to $100+ in the coming months/quarters. Nice setup holding support around prior range highs. Trading at ~4x 2026 rev growing at >60%. I think these guys are likely to carve out a nice place in the insurance market in coming years. Think the market is missing how accretive their growth spend really is and that LTV/CAC is actually positioned to grow from here via cross-selling. My model shows LMND becoming GAAP profitable in 2028, driven by the above factors + its extremely lean operating base. Then compounding profitability from there for years to come.

Imo this move in $BTC and other crypto assets is very real. This is NOT a bear market rally. The structure of the move, inbound regulatory catalysts and general macro/risk-on conditions do not support that. "Influencers" telling you otherwise will end up being very wrong.

Probabilities increasing that crypto has formed a major bottom and is in the beginning stages of the next uptrend. The playbook has always been simple - buy when crypto is not cool, sell when it is. Not convinced this time will be different. We have the most important regulatory framework in crypto's history now seemingly set, which sets the path for institutional money to come in. At the same time major financial institutions (DTCC, NYSE, etc) appear to be moving forward with tokenization initiatives. All while retail is largely gone from the space and sentiment is deeply negative. I'm seeing a very attractive and asymmetric setup quietly forming here. Many remain dismissive of the current rally and that is actually what we want to see - the big $$ is made buying before consensus catches up.

A lot has been made about $BTC not reclaiming its 21 week MA yet (a level that historically marks bull/bear market regime divide). Well $MSTR has. Is $MSTR giving the signal?

$ETH - Continue to think the long-term setup looks attractive. Transaction volumes are at record highs as stablecoin + tokenization narrative forms further. It's a super hated asset right now but the playbook in this space has always been simple - buy when crypto isn't cool and sell when it is. I do think the entire ~5 year consolidation is a bullish one and eventually resolves to the upside.

@tempotraderX Yeah have to question if the March sell-off in stocks wasn't enough to bring BTC below $60k, what will?

@AAMarkets Agree — what stands out is $BTC has been basing since Feb despite rising $VIX + $DXY (tightening liquidity backdrop) Both have started to roll over in April — if that persists, setup tilts higher Narratives follow price, and price follows liquidity (at least short term)

I do think there are covert signs of strength being built in $BTC and crypto. KelpDAO hack over the weekend was objectively a bad look for the space and did little to bring prices down. When price stops reacting to bad news, take it as a sign of strength. Equities correcting a bit today while $BTC is recovering from the weekend drawdown. Continue to lean towards $BTC pushing higher from here. Probabilities are this is more of a mid-cycle correction than the start of a deeper bear imo. Interest and narrative follows price - will only take one large green candle for sentiment to really shift.

$AMD playing catch up to other chip names, strong breakout towards new ATH's. Inference + CPU shortages are the story right now and AMD is the name to play both narratives. The Company has spent years building a stack suited for inference workloads and feels like this is their time to shine. Expecting more follow through towards the $300 level and perhaps well above.

@tempotraderX what i was thinking lol

Reminiscent of the .com bubble

$IGV bottom might be in. Evidence: 1) HTF bullish divergences at play 2) Capitulation-like volume that failed to break below ~$77 support, quickly snapping back above 3) Mass fear and pessimism at play 4) Classic ABC decline with a clear 5-wave move in the "C" wave, indicating likely completion Look for individual names that have proprietary data advantages and are rooted in core infrastructure of enterprises. $NOW and $ORCL come to mind.

$BTC on the verge of breaking out above its multi month range, which appears more and more likely to be an accumulation-like bottom. Pointed out in early February how price structure was telling us that a bottom was near. Expecting this thing to snap back sharply from here.

$NOW - Getting into the buy zone for me. Baby has been thrown out with the bathwater in software which has created outsized opportunities in select names. Believe $NOW is one of them. This is a company who's business model is changing towards becoming an orchestration layer for enterprise AI agents. Clear data moat with ability to price based on usage (rather than seats) in the future. Can argue that the business model will become even more sticky, as enterprises will need NOW's foundational data to be able to provide "context" to agents across workflows. Now trading at ~30x TTM FCF (when stripping out stock-based comp). Think this is reasonable for a business that will likely continue to show operating leverage and grow at attractive double-digit clips. The stock can certainly get cheaper, and I'd recommend scaling into a position over the coming weeks/months. Patience may be needed to see this play out. While everyone is focused on high-flying AI names, I'm seeing some hidden opportunities in this market. The big $ isn't made buying what everyone loves.

I do think it's probable that the lows are in for SPX and risk assets. The bounce over the past 2 weeks looks more like an impulsive structure rather than a corrective one. Could see us filling some or maybe even all of last week's gap, which is a dip I'd look to buy into. Large corrections don't take place when everyone is positioned for it. Max pain is higher from here imo. Expecting ATH's in coming weeks.

$CRWV looking for a major breakout here. Lagging $NBIS a bit (and justifiably perhaps given weaker B/S + more customer concentration) but not sure these things are trading as much on fundamentals right now anyways. Compute shortage theme will likely remain in place for a while and both names will be beneficiaries. I'd take a momentum-based long here.

$BTC continuing to diverge from traditional software. An encouraging sign that the narrative is shifting and that liquidity is positioning for a move higher above the current range.

A lot has been made of the $BTC correlation to $IGV in recent months. Something to note - $BTC remains firmly near the top of its range while $IGV appears to be on the verge of a breakdown. Doesn't necessarily mean the correlation is breaking but I do think this is a possible sign of strength for $BTC. Definitely something to pay attention to in coming weeks.

While I believe we are in the midst of a more major W4 corrective phase, it is difficult/impossible to tell how deep we'll go. ~$6100 SPX remains fully possible (100 Week EMA), I'm sensing that this is more of a "time capitulation" mid-cycle correction as opposed to some catastrophic drawdown. This correction was very telegraphed in the months prior and participants were prepared. Record high put skew and overwhelmingly bearish sentiment readings confirm this. Meanwhile revenues continue to grow nicely, margins are expanding and central bank liquidity pressures are easing. Feels like everyone is positioned for more major downside and the market rarely makes it this easy.

IMO if you have a multi-year time horizon here it's a good time to start scaling into risk. Believe the multi-month downtrend is in its closing portions (at least time wise, we could definitely get another low price wise). But trying to time bottoms is a losers game. Earnings continue to chug along nicely while sentiment diverges. Tech and growth asset valuations are now much more reasonable while defensive asset valuations (Staples, Energy, etc) sit at decade-long highs. I'm taking the other side of that bet. The doom and gloomers will continue to be loud and that's fine. Beaten-down segments like semi's, software, crypto and AI infra have held up nicely over the past several weeks and I expect a strong uptrend to form once fear subsides. The key is getting bids in while irrational fear is still prevalent.