Mukesh Choudhary

$BTC | LTF Update We pushed up over the weekend right after the monthly candle opened, and now we seem to be forming a potential three drives pattern at the top. The first move after a month opens is usually a fake one, and if we sweep the previous monthly high and deviate back below it, that would validate a move back down towards the monthly open. Losing the monthly open would open room for further downside, with 73.6k-72.8k being the first key area to watch as it is the key bullish continuation region. A break below this region would lead to an extended push all the way down to the quarterly open level at 68.2k.

$BTC With 100% confidence, this 77.8K CME gap will get filled either when market opens or next week.

Perception is key. When you flip $BTC inverted, does it look bullish to you?

The last time Sunday $BTC pumped, We dumped Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday before a recovery into monthly close. Given that we are pumping again & sweeping the previous monthly high into a new monthly open... seems like we are following a similar setup to last week.

The key to understanding everything… Study W.D. Gann. Time Cycles. Astronomy. Mathematics. Numerology. Geometry. $BTC moves based on things people doubt. That is why it works.

Quite a important chart to observe... USDT.D + $BTC After the clear break in structure from the previous range’s swing low, we can see on USDT.D that price doesn’t drop below that level. Instead, it holds and consolidates above the range it broke out from. When you correlate this with BTC, it suggests USDT dominance may be due for a bounce as it approaches the prior bullish break of structure. The same move that aligned with BTC dropping from 97K to 60K. If a similar pattern plays out, it would imply BTC is likely due for a HTF correction, especially if USDT.D holds above that previous BOS and doesn’t break lower as seen in 2022.

Shared almost 15trades here on X this month Up around 18R here live on X Obv there was some Losses too Lets make more money in may 🕺

$BTC │ Swing short update. I’m still positioned the same. As mentioned in my previous update, I closed the add at BE to improve my average from 74.6K to 76K. That proved to be a solid decision, as price reacted immediately after tapping my average entry. With it now being the start of May, I’ve already outlined the likelihood of a sweep above the PMO (previous monthly high). This remains the zone where I plan to scale further into the position to continue improving my overall swing entry. Some may ask why I don’t simply wait for clear structure or an ideal point of interest before entering. The reasoning is straightforward, I prefer to build into positions early to avoid being front-run. As a HTF trader, I take a limited number of swing trades, and waiting for perfect entries can often take weeks or even months. I’d rather secure exposure slightly early on a high-conviction idea than risk missing the move entirely. Since my average has improved following the 78K add (as previously noted), I’m now adjusting my soft stop-loss (SSL) from 83K to 84K. I’ll manually close the position if I believe the short thesis has been fully invalidated. This approach is consistent across my HTF positions, scaling in strategically to improve entry while progressively adjusting invalidation levels as the trade develops. So far, all 6 out of 6 swing shorts have played out successfully and delivered great returns. While it’s inevitable that I’ll eventually be wrong, maintaining conviction and discipline is essential. I’m continuing to follow the same system that has allowed me to capture each meaningful swing short to date. Emotionless. 🤟

If we look at how $BTC typically performs in Q2 during a bear market, the pattern is fairly consistent. May tends to be mixed, but in the last 2 bear cycles it actually performed quite badly. The key factor isn’t just May itself, it’s the reaction that follows and how BTC behaves going into Q3. With May and June often being relatively slow, August and September have historically been the weakest months in bear markets, frequently retracing most, if not all, of the prior Q2 upside moves. That’s why I prefer to position myself as a buyer during August and September. As stated previously.

I can’t believe how dry the crypto space is right now. Probably the worst it has ever been. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are ever going to surpass the 2020-2021 $BTC era.

I think there’s a strong case that $BTC could outperform gold. Not in the sense of BTC going parabolic, but in the sense of relative strength. (Gold shows more weakness than BTC) XAUBTC has dropped around 70%. Each cycle has been progressively less severe, suggesting the XAUBTC bottom may already be in.

Every single bear cycle since $BTC's creation. I’m not going to bet against something that’s played out time and time again. It’s the same every bull and bear cycle, “maybe this time is different.” Yeah, that worked out great for those longing 120K expecting a supercycle.

$ETH Long setup Entry: 2177.73 SL: 2083.36

$BTC Setup is still valid - first ideal TP is 83786.0

$BTC GM, looks like they might be going with a more aggressive scenario, sweeping the previous monthly high at the start of May (taking out short stops) before moving back into range and setting a range high. I’d be very careful longing into the sweep. I’ve got a feeling it retraces fairly quickly on the HTF through the rest of May. This kind of move typically shows up at the start of a new month, it’s pretty textbook, hence why I derisked my the add on my short at BE. I’ve also placed another small short add at 79.5K in case we sweep the previous monthly high (which is likely now), which should further improve my average from 76K, similar to the last add. SSL remains the same. 1W closure above 83K. No HSL.

$BTC Still holding the Short. If you were stopped at BE, you can re-enter with the same SL at 82,005. We’re seeing a pump at the start of the month and I’m looking for a local top to form here over the next few days before reversing back to the downside.

Live-trading session started, I framed 5 trades on 4h+ time-frame for the upcoming days.

$BTC As I have said… If the prophecy proves true, May will be a red month, with downside around low 70s.

bitcoin:native Currently, we have retraced below the 0.50. Lets see if the same thing happens again (like the two previous times).

$BTC The final leg down below 60,000 United States Dollars. This range is gradually coming to an end.