Wired_In

🚨 PRIVATE EQUITY IS MORE STUCK THAN IT WAS IN 2008 Private equity just posted its fourth straight year of declining returns to investors. Distributions as a percentage of net asset value stayed at 14%, the second-lowest level since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. BUT HERE'S THE DIFFERENCE: The 2008 drought lasted about two years. This one is now in year FOUR. THE INDUSTRY IS SITTING ON $3.8 TRILLION OF UNSOLD ASSETS. Think about that number. $3.8 trillion in companies they can't exit. They own roughly 32,000 portfolio companies and are holding them for an average of 7 years now, up from 5-6 years in 2021. Why can't they sell? Interest rates rose in 2022 and never came back down enough. Exit multiples compressed. Valuations dropped. The IPO market froze. So private equity is stuck holding companies they were supposed to flip years ago. AND IT'S GETTING WORSE. Deal activity looked "gangbusters" in January 2025. Then Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs hit, and dealmaking slammed to a halt. Total deals in 2025: 3,018 (down -6% from 2024). Meanwhile, fundraising collapsed -16% to $395 billion in 2025. THAT'S FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS OF DECLINES. Here's why this matters: Private equity promised investors 20%+ IRRs. But to hit those returns in today's environment, firms need to grow EBITDA by 12% annually for five years. Previously, 5% growth was enough. "12 is the new 5," according to Bain's report. Most portfolio companies can't grow at 12% per year. Especially not the ones stuck in the back of the portfolio for 7+ years. So what happens? Firms sell their "gem" assets to meet distribution requirements and keep the struggling ones on the books. The longer they hold, the worse the IRRs look. THIS IS A LIQUIDITY CRISIS IN SLOW MOTION. Pensions and endowments are getting pickier. They're demanding proof of value creation BEFORE committing capital. That means fewer new funds. Less dry powder deployment. Longer hold periods. And $3.8 trillion still sitting there with no exit in sight. Most people think private equity is fine because deal values are "up." What's actually happening? The industry is stuck holding assets it can't sell in a market that won't cooperate.

$MSTR Strategy CEO Phong Le says in seven years Bitcoin will crash from $1,000,000 to $750,000, and people will say BTC is dead then too.

BREAKING: Stellantis $STLA writes down its EV business by $26 billion. Down -27% so far today.

🚨 CONSUMER SENTIMENT JUST HIT A SIX-MONTH HIGH... BUT THERE'S A CATCH The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 57.3. On the surface, that looks positive. But when you dig into the data, the picture is far more uneven. The entire gain was driven by wealthy Americans who own stocks. The S&P 500 hit record highs during the survey period, boosting their confidence. For everyone else? Sentiment remained weak. As the survey director put it: Asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Meanwhile, job market anxiety is spiking. Respondents reported the highest probability of losing their own job since July 2020. The labor data backs this up: job openings dropped to 2020 lows, private payrolls added just 22,000 last month, and January saw the most job cut announcements since 2009. So yes, sentiment is up, but only if you're holding assets. For the rest of the economy, the cracks are widening. Two-speed economy in full effect.

🚨 CORPORATE INSIDERS ARE UNLOADING Nearly 1,000 executives at US-listed companies dumped shares this month, the highest sell-to-buy ratio in five years. The ratio just hit levels we haven't seen since early 2021, right before the market peaked and everything rolled over. What's striking isn't just the volume of selling, it's the complete lack of buying. Only 207 insiders added shares compared to nearly 1,000 who sold. Insiders only put their own capital to work when they see genuine value. Right now, that conviction is absent. These are the people who see the real numbers, revenue trends, margins, order books, that aren't in the press releases. And they're choosing cash over equity. The message is clear: they're locking in gains while they can. Between elevated valuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and mounting questions around AI spending returns, corporate leaders appear to be positioning defensively. Worth watching closely.

$GOOGL earnings: EPS of $2.82 vs $2.65 Sales of $113.83B vs $111B Operating margin of 32%

Jim Cramer: Everything is not fine with bitcoin. People need to get out.

Michael Saylor's $MSTR Strategy is currently sitting on over $4.5 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin position.

Treasury Secretary Bessent testifying in Congress. "The asset seizure, that $1 billion of $BTC Bitcoin was seized, $500 million was retained. And that $500 million has become over $15 billion."

U.S. House approves government funding bill, now heading to President Trump for signature.

BREAKING: Defense AI Firm $PDYN Palladyne Lands New Missile Propulsion Contract. The contract marks Palladyne's deepening integration into long-lifecycle weapons programs, with deliverables due by Q3 2026. The defense prime selected Palladyne based on "proven performance" and ability to meet accelerated timelines, suggesting urgency in US missile system production amid geopolitical tensions. Beyond the immediate revenue, Palladyne expects this contract to open the door for "growing annual revenues" from recurring orders on the same program. Palladyne's platform combines embodied AI, collaborative autonomy, and UAV systems, positioning it at the intersection of traditional defense manufacturing and next-gen autonomous warfare capabilities. $PDYN is currently up 12% in pre-market.

US Pushes Allies on Rare Earth Pricing Mechanism to Counter China The Trump administration is making an aggressive play to break China's stranglehold on rare earth minerals. US Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg calls this pricing agreement "the key unlock" to securing supply chains against Chinese price undercutting. China has historically flooded the market with below-cost rare earths, making it impossible for Western producers to compete profitably, even with tariffs. China can simply sell low-priced minerals to third countries. Those countries then sell to the US, bypassing tariffs entirely. Western miners get crushed by artificially cheap Chinese supply. The solution being discussed is to create a parallel market that excludes China. Implement price floors to guarantee producers won't be undercut Coordinate across allied nations to prevent arbitrage. The endgame is to build a rare earths cartel among allies, essentially an OPEC for critical minerals. $MP $CRML $USAR $UAMY $LAC $TMC

President Trump is preparing to establish a strategic reserve for critical minerals, backed by $12 billion in initial funding The reserve will reportedly hold rare earths, critical minerals, and other strategically vital elements vulnerable to price volatility - Bloomberg $CRML $TMC $USAR $MP $TMQ $UAMY

Snowflake ($SNOW) and OpenAI locked in a multi-year, $200M partnership to integrate OpenAI models directly into Snowflake Cortex AI across major cloud platforms. The agreement provides 12,600+ enterprise clients with a structured framework for deploying scalable, context-aware AI agents, positioning Snowflake as a key player in the AI infrastructure layer.

BREAKING: US Senate approves funding legislation, preventing federal government shutdown.

$NVDA Nvidia’s $100 billion OpenAI investment has completely STALLED. Why? Jensen Huang cited concerns over competition from Google and Anthropic, plus a “lack of discipline” in OpenAI’s business approach. The original deal was non-binding and never finalized. This also explains the sudden headlines 48 hours ago about OpenAI “racing” to go public ASAP. OpenAI is reportedly rushing to IPO specifically to “beat Anthropic” as the first major generative AI startup to go public at an $830 billion valuation. Meanwhile, $AMZN Amazon and SoftBank are racing to partner with OpenAI in this funding round. OpenAI has been the central figure in hundreds of billions of recent AI deals. Altman and OpenAI are certainly panicking right now.

Crypto bros when they find out silver holders got rugged

BREAKING: Kevin Warsh chosen by President Trump to chair the Federal Reserve

Poland’s gold reserves now exceed the entire European Central Bank’s. Poland’s central bank is pushing reserves from 550 to 700 tons, pushing Poland into the top 10 globally for gold holdings. 🇵🇱