Matt

@swarajk_ M1 is up nearly a trillion y/y and there's a world cup on.

people keep underestimating the US economy

@DannyDayan5 M1 up nearly a trillion y/y, it would be very surprising if there wasn't acceleration.

If you want to understand how I called this economic reacceleration, these 3 notes below spell it out. The Fed's estimate of neutral is the source of all of their errors. They are likely off by 1.5%, if not more.

@JaguarAnalytics People actually believe this nonsense.

Today’s job report shows continuation of prior 3 reports. Companies adopting AI there are large scale layoffs. Professional services particularly. Anyone who sits behind a computer is subject to cut. If you build stuff w/ your hands, you’re ok until Musk sends an army of robots.

@PeterMallouk Yeah, it's that the USD is very overvalued after $16 trillion! Of federal debt was added since January 2020.

Of the UK were a US state. Probably some lessons in here….

@charliebilello "AI" washing

For the 3rd month in row, AI was the #1 reason for job cuts in the US. 88k job cuts were attributed to AI so far this year, a 60% increase over the AI-driven job cuts in all of 2025. challengergray.com/blog/challenge…

@DannyDayan5 ROI on LLM investments, or not, is key.

Today is a VAR shock plain and simple. BUT, the fact that the economy is heating up, and rates need to be higher to prevent inflation from spiraling, does not mean the Fed is going to hike 400 bps and crash everything. Some of the reactions are a bit much.

@awealthofcs Healthy

South Korea has now outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years All of the outperformance has come in the past year Nuts

@PeterMallouk Insane

Nearly $27,000 a year for family health insurance premiums, up from $6,000 in 1999. And that’s before deductibles, copays, and surprise bills. The system is fundamentally broken.

@AskYoshik @ksadras You probably should be.

@ksadras I amm not denying AI is a real revolution at all. My point was about whether the current level of spending and valuations are sustainable long term, and I attached actual data and numbers behind that argument, not random opinions.

The AI bubble math doesn't add up. Anthropic spends $3 to make $1 and that’s before you include any and all other costs like staff or electricity. Microsoft dumped $300B in capex, made ~$18B in AI revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up 43-54% of Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle's entire revenue backlogs. Enterprises are burning through annual AI budgets in 4 months with zero measurable ROI. This is the most expensive science experiment in history, funded by your SaaS subscriptions.

@JaguarAnalytics Why would they agree to it ?

Terms: — End to war in Iran and Lebanon — End of US naval blockade — Nuclear to be discussed later — Unfreeze $25 billion for Iran All of this to open Strait of Hormuz without tolls, which was open before without tolls. Bibi 👇

@ColeFusionHQ Cycle going to cycle...

There are 191,000 fewer job listings in the UK than there were in May 2025. That is a 23% drop. At the same time, employers are filing more mass-redundancy notices than at any point since lockdown. The labour market is shutting down in both directions simultaneously.

@GaryMarcus Surprising when it's taking them $2-3 to generate $1 in revenue... IPO prospectus when now ?

absolute desperation from the IPO crowd. most desperate i have ever seen them.

@charliebilello Extreme psyhosis?

NVIDIA's net profit margin surged to 71% in the 1st quarter, a record high. $NVDA “Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins don't mean revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits don't attract competition, there's something wrong with the system.” - Jeremy Grantham

@DannyDayan5 Massive pro cyclical deficit driving tech bubble 2.0 combined with energy inflation. How do they land this ?

Oh look, inflation is everywhere.

@charliebilello The biggest mania in history.

Nvidia Q1 revenues surged to a record $82 billion, up 85% over the prior year. Their revenue projection for Q2 2026 is $91 billion, which would be a 95% YoY increase. Net Income hit a record $58 billion, up 211% YoY. Net profit margins rose to 71%, an all-time high. $NVDA

@paulg Put house prices in

If Steve Jobs were still alive, he would have the moral authority to face and maybe even to solve this problem. But I doubt anyone in the phone business now does.

@Jenny_1884 Inflation!

Are people finding that they don’t eat out as much nowadays? It’s not only the cost but also I feel you are not getting value for money anymore for pretty average food. I’m cooking more from scratch nowadays at home & try & avoid processed food.

@TiceRichard With more spending?

BURNHAM = BANKRUPTCY for UK Make no mistake we're staring at worst financial crisis in 50 years We at Reform have been warning of this for months Only Reform can save UK from this mess STARMERGEDDON newspaper.mailplus.co.uk/data/7794/read…

@charliebilello Fiscal deficit will provide all the profits needed. Sectoral balances.

The S&P 500 is at an all-time high while Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low. We've never seen a gap this wide between Wall Street and Main Street.

@DannyDayan5 Fiscal policy is way too loose. Cut the fiscal deficit. More important than monetary policy.

The bond market is telling Central Bankers to get on with hikes now. No, you are not "well positioned to wait". Do it now and it may still be gentle.