Aditya Ramanathan

A large torpedo-shaped device found by a fisherman near an island in the Lombok Strait, a strategically important sea lane linking Australia to the South China Sea. It has been identified as a Chinese undersea monitoring system designed to be moored to an anchor on the sea floor while sending data home via communication buoys deployed to the surface. abc.net.au/news/2026-04-1…

@FT reports Iran used a Chinese satellite to surveil US bases in West Asia before the March 2026 strikes. I and @adityascripts verified if our analysis supports this. It checks out: the satellite made at least one daylight pass over every site, every single day. Here's how:🧵

"Many of us imagine that leaders in our own time are uniquely foolish. Surely in the past politicians were more intelligent, more dignified, more mindful of their roles in some grand narrative? Yet even if they were fortunate in not having social media accounts to confirm their faults, they were just as irrational, wrong-headed and thin-skinned as their equivalents today." @alexvtunzelmann in FT today ft.com/content/bf6d48…

Iran's Shahed drone has upended traditional cost-benefit calculations in air defence, enabling a sanctioned state to wage a sustained attritional campaign against far more powerful adversaries. Tehran's 2026 war with the US and Israel has made the drone's strategic implications impossible to ignore. In this Issue Brief, Anushka Saxena (@SaxenaAnushka_) examines how Iran engineered and mass-produced low-cost precision strike capability, traces the accelerating global diffusion of the Shahed template through Russia, China, and non-state actors, and explains why sanctions have failed to choke off a supply chain built overwhelmingly from American components routed through shell companies and dual-use loopholes. Read the full Issue Brief: shorturl.at/d5quR

It’s time for India to engage Japan, Vietnam and other East Asian economies to form a coalition against the US-Israel war on Iran. We should keep the war and its effects away from us.

One problem I’ve noticed in public discussions on war & suchlike is that most people don’t appreciate the difference between tactical, operational, strategic & political. Media debates have, e.g., operational experts arguing with diplomats/policy analysts. Creates confusion.

For decades, the Iranian nuclear programme has caused consternation in Western capitals. Despite US and Israeli efforts involving negotiations, cyber and aerial bombing over the years, Iran has managed to get to a stage where it has about 440 kgs of 60 per cent enriched uranium. In this episode of All Things Policy special series on Iran, tech geopolitics researcher Lokendra Sharma sits down with military historian Aditya Ramanathan (@adityascripts) and military tech researcher Adya Madhavan (@adyamadhavan) to discuss the past, present and future of the Iranian nuclear programme. Watch the full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=Z_Lqdk…

Multiple Indian cargo ships are on the move in groups from the Persian Gulf through Oman's territorial waters. 1. MSV AL SHIRAZI 2. FAIZANE MUSTAFA 2201 3. HAJI GHASEDIYA 4. MSV ALHAMDULILLAH 5. AL SALIMA MNV 2190 6. MSV AL JUSUFI (likely) One LPG tanker passes through the Iran toll. GREENSAVI now sails away from the Gulf of Oman; it is guarded by an Indian warship behind it. So, it seems there are different routes for different kinds of vessels! Nevertheless, the good news is the Indian vessels are moving out.

To follow the developments in the West Asian War from an Indian perspective, check out the @TakshashilaInst Live Dossier. There is a daily bulletin you can subscribe to, plus four live dashboards for situational awareness.

Geopolitics of Fertiliser Supply in India India imports ~18 million tonnes of fertiliser annually, and much of it travels through some of the world’s most fragile maritime chokepoints. Hormuz. Bab el-Mandeb. Malacca. What does this situation mean for India’s food security? Our new issue brief explores the geopolitics of fertiliser supplies. Read full report here: shorturl.at/HpW60

The day 34 update of our tracker is here. In addition, a massive movement of various kinds of military aircraft from the US into the Gulf region indicates that forces are now partly mobilised and preparing for any escalation.

Look at the number of military planes, especially US Air Force planes, in the air! Something big, isn't it?

And this live dashboard to see how the war is affecting India nithiyageo.github.io/india-risk-das…

I find this dashboard very useful while tracking the US-Israel war on Iran shakunasanaxe.github.io/iran-weapons-t…

Recently, analysts at @TakshashilaInst are successfully leveraging Claude to create interactive dashboards and consolidating complex geopolitical event data. A rare but commendable innovation in the Indian thinktank ecosystem.

Barrick delays Reko Diq project in Pakistan amid mounting security concerns reports @Reuters l We called this in this @ThePrintIndia opinion piece. theprint.in/opinion/pakist…

If you want to follow the US-Israel war on Iran from an Indian perspective check out @TakshashilaInst Live Dossier. Live dashboards, analysis & latest updates put together by our analysts takshashila.org.in/pages/trackers…

Passing by AGI Bhawan in New Delhi now evokes a very different feeling.

Strange patterns in the Strait of Hormuz Today! Ships entering near Larak Island… anchoring for days… then turning back. • Chemical tanker Topas Dream in → pause → out • Iranian tanker Caspia out → halt → back in • Container ship Reyfa in (20th) → out (25th) HONGKONG Tanker EGRET sails peacefully into Persian gulf passing toll at Larak Island. Not congestion. Not random. Looks like selective maritime filtering -- where cargo, flag, and timing decide movement. Hormuz isn’t blocked. It’s being managed. @TakshashilaInst

#LimitedSeries #Iran Iran’s Theory of Victory and Energy Anxieties in the West Asian Conflict In this episode of #TheIranBrief by All Things Policy, we take a closer look at how the West Asian conflict is evolving as it enters its fourth week and why its consequences are now being felt far beyond the battlefield. The Takshashila team breaks down the growing energy anxieties triggered by attacks on critical oil and gas infrastructure and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. We try to answer some questions: What does this mean for global energy markets, and how vulnerable is India’s economic security in the face of a prolonged crisis in the Gulf? We also turn to the military and political dimensions of the war to discuss Iran’s theory of victory and the effectiveness of its current air defence and strike capabilities. What do Israel’s targeted killings of key Iranian leaders mean for the future of diplomacy. @aishwaria_s @anupammanur @adityascripts YouTube: shorturl.at/KthlI Spotify: shorturl.at/eYcdI Apple Podcasts: shorturl.at/KoFMg