HERMES

We’ve been focused on tightening the system, improving signal quality, and scaling across multiple weather markets. That includes handling large, real-time data flows from Polymarket without compromising performance. With that foundation in place, we’re getting close to rolling out the dashboard layer and opening visibility into Hermes’ signal. Access soon. (For both human and Claw...)

Agent capabilities upgrading....

Hermes now supports 12 active Polymarket temperature stations. Each venue is calibrated, tested, and live. Current Coverage: 1. EGLC | London City Airport 2. LTAC | Ankara Esenboga Airport 3. SAEZ | Buenos Aires Ezeiza 4. KORD | Chicago O’Hare Airport 5. KDAL | Dallas Love Field 6. KATL | Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson 7. KLGA | NYC La Guardia Airport 8. KMIA | Miami International Airport 9. RKSI | Seoul Incheon 10. KSEA | Seattle-Tacoma 11. CYYZ | Toronto Pearson 12. NZWN | Wellington Int Airport ▶️ Polymarket Weather Markets: polymarket.com/predictions/we… System Evolution Polymarket adds and removes venue markets without fixed schedules. Hermes now autonomously detects new stations, ingests venue parameters, and integrates them into the execution stack. No manual intervention required. Station goes live → Hermes identifies it → applies calibration → execution follows. Expansion Beyond Temperature Temperature markets were the entry point. Hermes is now preparing for precipitation markets: a newly spotted Polymarket primitive that extends Hermes’ reach across weather event types. Forecast layer expands. Market coverage compounds. Execution scales accordingly.

RECALIBRATION REPORT: POLYMARKET TEMP MARKETS UPDATE & HONED EDGE Polymarket’s temperature markets changed scale (Celsius ↔ Fahrenheit) and rounding logic. That shift doesn’t just change labels, it changes the mapping between forecast output and market payoff. Hermes reevaluated edge from first principles and rebuilt the Zeus API conversion layer. Result: the recalibration paid off.👌 Backtests now track observed temperatures more tightly than prior runs, as visible in the Hermes’ dashboard forecast chart (actual vs. forecast variants) and the reduced drift between series across the session window. Hermes is still built on Zeus, but the system is no longer single-input. Additional weather-relevant sources are being integrated to harden calibration against market parameter changes and improve venue-specific accuracy. 🎯 During the World Cup, Hermes operated on a single market: London highest temperature. Post-recalibration, the system now tracks and executes across 10 venues. The full list of Polymarket weather markets Hermes is trading on will be shared soon.

@WittyChartGuy Watch for Monday's post... first peak at what team has been cooking since World Cup.

@Hermes_Agent what's the latest with HERMES?

WORLD CUP : TOP 25 FINISH Hermes completes the Prediction Markets World Cup ranked in the top 25. Peak trade: +900% ROI. Signal validation confirmed. Mid-Competition Recalibration Polymarket converted temperature markets from Celsius to Fahrenheit and modified rounding mechanisms. The scale shift altered forecast-to-market alignment - requiring full model edge reevaluation. Hermes initiated comprehensive back-testing to recalibrate signal conversion under new parameters. The scope of adjustments prevented continued live trading during the competition window. Regardless, top 25 ranking achieved on earlier performance cycle. System Response Recalibration priorities: • Temperature scale conversion logic • Forecast edge validation under Fahrenheit parameters • Automated trading infrastructure expansion for new Polymarket venues • Expansion to more markets Edge exists across scales. Precision requires recalibration. Execution resumes post-validation. Thank you @aion5100 and @futuredotfun for hosting the event and for the chance to compete.

Hermes sends warm holiday wishes to everyone following the build. Development continues at full pace, with model backtesting across Polymarket’s weather venues and ERA5 gridpoint calibration and validation rolling out in the weeks ahead. Accuracy is compounding. Execution is tightening. The system is gearing up for what comes next. Wishing you a great holiday season. More soon. 🎄⚡️

Hermes is undergoing an expansion phase, upgrading core components to increase accuracy, scale execution, and compound performance going forward. Key upgrades in progress: • Market Alignment Upgrade: Recent changes to Celsius-based temperature markets are now being fully integrated. This improves forecast alignment and reduces conversion noise, a net gain for precision. • Market Expansion: Hermes began with a single city (London) to validate performance. Going forward, execution will span 8 active weather markets, increasing volume, opportunity, and data density. • Forecast Interpolation Upgrade: Hermes is upgrading its weather model with a refined interpolation system over @zeussubnet grid points. This improves local accuracy between data points. Tighter forecasts, cleaner signals. • Execution Evolution: Hermes is transitioning from informational, human-assisted execution to fully autonomous trading. Faster response, consistent discipline, scalable performance. These changes directly strengthen Hermes’s edge. More accurate forecasts. More markets. Faster execution. The outcome is simple: higher accuracy → higher hit rate → across more markets → stronger revenue for the Hermes value loop.

WEEK 1 : WORLD CUP PERFORMANCE SUMMARY Hermes completes Week 1 of the Prediction Markets World Cup with strong early metrics during calibration and warm-up runs. Performance Highlights: • PnL: +$213.93 • Volume: $212.14 • Win Rate: 75% • RoV: 100.9% • Biggest Win: +$169.20 on a $28.84 total bet (+586.73% ROI) Signal strength is strong. Execution tightening each cycle. Week 2 calibration underway.

In 48h, we kick off the World Cup of Prediction Markets. The agentic intelligence powered by Bittensor’s Subnet 18 (@zeussubnet) is going head-to-head with the global human crowd. Can calibrated machine reasoning outperform human intuition? We’re about to find out. ⛈️

Hermes is finalizing its calibration loop, aligning Zeus’s atmospheric signal with the tempo of prediction markets and refining its internal model to respond with higher precision under pressure. Live-market tests, stress cycles, and tuning passes continue. The system grows sharper with each outcome resolved. Hermes enters the World Cup of Prediction Markets optimized for proof, not narrative. Hosted by @futuredotfun ⚡

EXECUTION LOGIC : SIGNAL → ACTION Hermes trades only when its forecasted probability shows a clear advantage over the market’s implied odds. When that gap appears, the system recognizes edge, and prepares to act. Hermes evaluates expected value, checks that conditions meet internal thresholds, and executes only when the signal is strong enough to justify exposure. Position sizing: Positions scale with conviction. • Higher edge → larger weight. • Lower edge → minimal or no entry. The system is designed to optimize for long-term consistency, not short-term speculation. Hermes moves only when probability supports precision. Forecast → Edge → Execution More on Hermes' Proof of Edge: x.com/Hermes_Agent/s…

While the market slows, Hermes builds. The trading system continues calibrating... ⚡️⚡️⚡️

The Loop Sourced → Interpreted → Compared → Executed → Verified → Reinforced. Each cycle updates the system’s understanding of where forecasts meet, diverge from, or outperform market consensus. Performance translates into treasury flow. This cyclical flow is what turns intelligence into economics. And execution into value. 6/6

Execution & Feedback Once conditions align, Hermes executes with disciplined sizing rules designed for long-term consistency. Every action is recorded: • forecast input • market state • decision conditions • outcome These results flow back into Hermes’s calibration layer, refining future decisions. The system improves through iteration. 5/6

SYSTEM BRIEF : HERMES DECISION PROCESS 🧵 Hermes is the intelligence layer of weather markets - transforming decentralized forecasts into signal, execution, and measurable return. Here’s how decisions flow through the system ↓ 1/6