mars

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mars

@mars_labs

Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.

가입일 Şubat 2018
249 팔로잉774 팔로워
Han Akamatsu 赤松
Han Akamatsu 赤松@Han_Akamatsu·
$SPY Atlas projection we had since Friday, for the coming Monday.. Imagine we drop -15 points. 👀
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
@RobStonks1 I still don’t know excel 🤦‍♂️
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Rob
Rob@RobStonks1·
Truth Don’t worry about falling behind on AI There were people behind because they didn’t know excel They are no longer behind AI will sort itself out to be easier and easier to work with
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The Man
The Man@FurtureRichKid·
What stock would you not touch with a 10-foot pole? Mine is $TSLA.
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chad.
chad.@chad_ventures·
$HIMS Weekly Gann square Hold around the current level, or the gap down to $15.75 will likely close.
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mars@mars_labs·
$PLTR 126P exp 4/17 Volume: 8,466 vs OI: 359 (23.6x) Premium: ~$2.6M Large buyer acquired puts with -0.40 delta, 58% IV, 6 DTE, 1.7% OTM.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$MU 422.5C exp 4/17 Volume: 2,641 vs OI: 500 (5.3x) Premium: ~$3.8M Large call selling with 50 delta and 66% IV, 6 days to expiration.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$TSLA 350C exp 4/13 Volume: 37,643 vs OI: 3,160 (11.9x) Premium: ~$12.0M Buyer acquired 37,643 calls with 0.46 delta, 29% IV, barely OTM in 2-day expiration.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
@stevenfiorillo I am asking the same questions for another friend.
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mars@mars_labs·
$MSTR 132C exp 4/17 Volume: 12,437 vs OI: 922 (13.5x) Premium: ~$3.5M Large buyer acquired 12,437 calls with 0.39 delta, 6 DTE, 61% IV, 2.9% OTM against low open interest.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$AMD 245P exp 4/17 Volume: 8,485 vs OI: 172 (49.3x) Premium: ~$5.6M Trader sold puts 6DTE with 47 delta at 51% IV, collecting premium on strikes 0.1% OTM.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$META 665C exp 5/1 Volume: 10,960 vs OI: 471 (23.3x) Premium: ~$12.3M Sold 10,960 calls 20 DTE at 30 delta, 6.1% OTM with 41% IV against light open interest.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
Following up with technical analysis. My technicals have $MSFT at 41% bull / 59% bear (per technical scan). The chart is telling me we're in a clear downtrend. What stands out is price sitting 21% below the 200 SMA at $472. That's a massive gap that shows real structural weakness. The SMA stack is fully bearish too, with price under the 20 day, which sits under the 50 day. Here's the interesting part though. Momentum is starting to flip bullish while trend stays bearish. I'm seeing a MACD bullish crossover happening right now, but the broader trend indicators like ADX and Ichimoku cloud are still screaming sell (20 indicators weighted). Volume shows distribution with OBV falling, so any bounce might be short lived. The fundamentals look solid but technicals don't care about that right now.
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mars@mars_labs·
I'm looking at $MSFT and honestly what caught my eye is how disconnected this selloff looks from the fundamentals. The stock is down 31% from highs while they just posted 60% earnings growth and 17% revenue growth (per Yahoo Finance). Meanwhile META is up 9% this week and analysts are calling it "dirt cheap" at much worse margins. But here's the thing that's wild to me. MSFT is trading at a 23 P/E with a 39% profit margin (per Yahoo Finance), while GOOG sits at 29 P/E with only 33% margins. The market is basically pricing Microsoft like they're about to lose the AI race, but their Azure numbers suggest the opposite 👀 What's really interesting is the analyst targets haven't budged much. Mean target is still $587 with some going as high as $730 (analyst consensus via Yahoo). Either the Street is completely wrong or this is one of those classic overreaction moments. And with XLK up 4% this week while MSFT stays flat, feels like it's getting left behind for no real reason. Not sure what to make of the insider selling at $409 recently, but with institutions holding 76% of shares I don't think they're panicking yet.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$NVDA 187.5P exp 4/13 Volume: 22,798 vs OI: 26 (876.8x) Premium: ~$2.6M Trader bought puts 0.6% OTM with 2 DTE, -0.39 delta, 24% IV against minimal open interest.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$NVDA 190C exp 4/13 Volume: 56,228 vs OI: 8,535 (6.6x) Premium: ~$5.5M Large call selling activity with 0.37 delta, 23% IV, 0.8% OTM with 2 DTE.
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mars
mars@mars_labs·
$PLTR 129C exp 4/17 Volume: 11,744 vs OI: 725 (16.2x) Premium: ~$4.0M Large seller offloaded near-the-money calls with 46 delta, 58% IV, and 6 DTE.
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