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@kakashiii111 It’s a sharp bearish thesis with some valid risks (Nvidia customer concentration, circular financing), but the core claims don’t match current data. No HBM inventory stacking, no capex cuts, SK Hynix: 2026 HBM3E sold out, strong demand.

Read my last article, "Compute Shortage, Overbooked Components: What’s Really Going On?", where I discussed the behind the scenes dynamics of what’s happening with semiconductor stocks. open.substack.com/pub/kakashiii1…

@FroehlichThors1 @kakashiii111 is a sharp, useful skeptical voice worth reading for balance. But treat the pinned post as strong opinion + risk highlighting, not a factual snapshot of the current cycle.Always verify against the actual filings and earnings transcripts.

Michael Burry pinned @kakashiii111 research for some time on his profile, because his work is so profound and of high quality, you'd better listen. As a lawyer, he can also grasp the legal implications what will follow this sharade. Ths is your AI / chips Sherlock Holmes - and I mean it.

Clarity Act is now poised to accelerate the “Bretton Woods 3.0” framework that I’ve talked about. The yield “ban” is cosmetic & simply something for banks to tout as a victory. It bans stablecoins from paying you interest for just holding them: the way a savings account does. But it explicitly allows stablecoins to pay you rewards for using them: buying things, lending, providing liquidity, participating in any program.. Now consider that those rewards can be calculated based on how much you hold & for how long. I think that’s what we just call interest, but it will now be rebranded under a new name. So, the implications: - The fact that there is now a carve-out for stablecoin yield will accelerate the Bretton Woods 3.0 system. If the ban had been real (no yield in any form) there’s no reason for anyone to hold stablecoins over a bank account. Stablecoin adoption would flatline (especially in Developed Markets) & Bessent’s $3.7T target would be hard to achieve. This carve out keeps the incentive to hold stablecoins, which keeps the growth flywheel spinning. - CBDCs can’t compete. No central bank would design its digital currency to pay activity based rewards calculated by balance & duration (too close to monetary policy). However, dollar stablecoins can. So in every market where a CBDC competes against a $ stablecoin, the dollar product is economically superior. The Clarity Act now guarantees that advantage persists. - The dollar now goes global without permission. The new text allows platforms to pay incentives for payments, remittances, & settlement activity using stablecoins. That’s a subsidy for global dollar adoption funded by private companies (not taxpayers). Meanwhile, increasing Treasury demand in the background. For example, a Filipino worker now gets a rebate for sending remittances in USDC. There’s an additional incentive for him to now transact in stablecoins, which, unbeknownst to him, purchases American debt behind the scenes. A win-win for global stablecoin users & the American economy (fiscal situation). The compromise looks like a ban. But it’s actually a growth mandate. As I’ve stated, the US government needs stablecoins to scale because it needs someone to buy its debt. Bretton Woods 3.0

agentic money = blockchain

🧵 THREAD 1/ Online age verification is the hill to die on. Not a fight you can sit out. Not a battle you can skip. Not a policy you can afford to ignore while you focus on something else. This is it. This is the line. This is the infrastructure that enables every other piece of the digital control grid. If we lose this fight, we lose everything.

Hard to listen to 70s, 80s, even 90s music now. It forces the realization that something split in the late 90s and we ended up in the worse timeline. That applies to almost everything beyond music.

It becomes clarer and clearer to me that the number one thing that technology must provide is net-negative attention drain and focus tax. That's almost the exact opposite of how Silicon Valley has thought about it the last decades. AI agents are the chance to fix or blow this.

Here one thing that AI won't change: The number one human ability always was and still ramais the ability to think through a problem and express it precisely in plain language. It is the root skill for almost everything

Make your life better. Unfollow everyone who uses: short clauses, superlatives, implied scarcity, vague claims, emotional triggers, second-person address, minimal evidence. The typical "this is huge", "...just dropped", "you need this", "leaked", people.

@primal_app @LynAldenContact The shift from insightful, respected global expert to self-promoting memer is incremental at first, then abrupt at times

585 days later we now have a gif button.

So Google TurboQuant is basically Pied Piper and just hit a Weismann Score of 5.2

@zerohedge This is better than any telenovela I've seen so far. Next up: Amnesia is striking

IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES: RTRS

🔴Thoughts on the Future of Energy Markets🔴 The most severe long-term consequence of escalating trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, disruptions involving Venezuela, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and even moves like the Greenland interest isn't just higher prices or short-term supply shocks. It's the irreversible shift where energy becomes fully classified as a core national security issue for every major power and country. Once that mindset takes hold, global energy markets will never return to the old model of open, price-driven, largely commercial trade. Instead, capitalist economies—historically reliant on market efficiency, global supply chains, and comparative advantage—will increasingly mirror the Chinese approach: heavy state direction, strategic stockpiling, vertical integration, subsidies for domestic champions, and prioritization of self-reliance/control over pure cost minimization. The irony? They'll adopt this state-capitalist framework without China's advantages—its unmatched scale in manufacturing, technological edge in key supply chains (batteries, solar, rare earths), massive infrastructure buildout, or centralized political ability to force rapid pivots. The result: higher costs, slower innovation in some areas, fragmented markets, and reduced overall efficiency for Western-style economies, all in the name of "security." Energy stops being just another commodity; it becomes a geopolitical weapon and a domestic fortress.

I'm sort of convinced that until a man is financially stable he won't have peace... *he still might not after that, but he definitely will not before.

Looks-maxxing is dumb. You should be Greco-maxing. Normalize discussions about Eudaimonia and other aspects of ethics or metaphysics while walking in the sun, touching grass, lifting weights, playing sports, having meals, and optimizing the self as an equanimous chad/stacy.

I think the last few months have clearly shown how useless and distracting the entire X finance narrative machine is. Crypto and TradFi alike

@TheStalwart ETH CESR rate 3.47%. S&P500 earnings yield 3.43%. 10 YR TIPS real yield 1.89%. Giving ETH risk premium of 1.58%, equity risk premium of 1.54%, only 4 bps spread. If you think agentic commerce takes off asymptotically on Ethereum, that seems like a steal vs high Shiller stocks.

Now we know for sure. The crypto four year cycle is alive, narratives such as business and liquidity cycles are dead.

Trump and Saylor branding on BTC is holding it back The crypto industry needs to be somewhat apolitical if it wants to succeed long term The tribalism from the last couple years just alienated a large percentage of humanity and has done more damage than you'd think

@nvk Without knowing the actual implementation this information is useless. Use Signal instead of WhatsApp!