Andrew Paul

10.3K posts

Andrew Paul

Andrew Paul

@ASPaul85

Data Science, Economics, Politics, Philosophy, Rugby. Veteran of two tours of duty in the posting wars. Inputs commands at the terminal to rearrange 1s and 0s.

Brisbane, Queensland Katılım Şubat 2016
842 Takip Edilen344 Takipçiler
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
Burying bottles with $20 notes in the desert would reduce UE and raise inf. Legalizing the drug trade or trade in organs would reduce UE and increase inf. What you need to explain is why forcing economic activity through real estate is the best way to achieve these goals.
Peter Tulip@peter_tulip

.@1RossGittins avoids the central question. Further action (QE, negative rates, $A depreciation, etc) would reduce unemployment and raise inflation. There is good research on this. The RBA has not explained why the costs of action are more important than lowering unemployment.

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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
@DrCameronMurray I've been wondering if there is a any story we could invent to justify why capital gains taxes must be inflation adjusted but income taxes must not be inflation adjusted.
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Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray@DrCameronMurray·
A funny observation. CGT, as it stands, often taxes inflationary gains and not real gains. The proposed changes will not tax real gains. Those arguing against the change are implicitly arguing for a system that taxes inflationary gains, which is clearly no big deal.
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
And our immigration program probably retards productivity. For every Egyptian cement plant manager with genuine rare and valueable skills, we get lord knows how many foreign engineers driving uber or technology or business grads padding out rentier bloated bureaucracies.
Claire Lehmann@clairlemon

"The productivity slump is the most important macro fact about the Australian economy right now. It is the supply-side problem behind the inflation problem behind the rate differential behind the currency. It is deep, it has been persistent for two decades, and it will not be fixed by the next budget, by the next rate decision, or by waiting it out." markthegraph.blogspot.com/2026/05/austra…

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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
Alright fine, I'll listen to these discussions, even though it'll probably enrage me. I miss Misha's posts on here he was one of the best. kvetch.au/p/confessions-…
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Andrew Paul retweetledi
Mark 🇦🇺
Mark 🇦🇺@Mark_Graph·
I have been thinking about the impact of Australia's (primarily low-skilled) temporary migration program on productivity. Initial thoughts follow. If I have the maths or analysis wrong, please let me know. A skilled migration program lifts productivity. A temporary migration program that brings in workers for sectors that would otherwise automate (hospitality, retail, aged care, logistics, food delivery) suppresses it. Australia has been running the second program at scale. The composition of the visa stock is the evidence. Students, working holiday makers, bridging visa holders and graduate visa holders dominate the working temporary cohort, and they concentrate in exactly the sectors where capital substitution would otherwise be advancing. The labour is cheap, available and willing. The capital investment doesn't happen. The productivity number doesn't move. These are estimates built from Home Affairs quarterly visa stock data multiplied by ABS ACTEID 2021 employment rates by visa class. The employment rates are held constant at their 2021 Census-linked values, so if recent cohorts (especially students after the uncapped-hours rule changes) are working more intensively, the true working stock is higher than 1.83 million. The figure is conservative to moderate.
Mark 🇦🇺 tweet mediaMark 🇦🇺 tweet mediaMark 🇦🇺 tweet media
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
What an amazing economy our government has engineered. It can't grow beyond a 2 percent without producing excessive inflation. But if it doesnt grow faster than 2 percent we start accumulating unemployed people. 🤡
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk

Barely 2 weeks from the RBA lifting interest rates to an equal 14 year high comes sorry news from the labour market. Employment down 19,000 in April, unemployment rate spiked to 4.5%, the highest since 2021... & this is before the effect of the 3 rates hikes so far this year impact. The risk is that we see unemployment at 5.5% this time next year with 5% close to a lay down misère. From the perspective of the labour market, the RBA has clearly over-tightened monetary policy - look at the weakening wages profile and now the deterioration in the labour market. Job vacancies are as sick as a dog. Surely the RBA can't be so misguided to hike rates again? youtube.com/watch?v=lO58Nt…

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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
@DrCameronMurray You can rent most of these car parks out. So the extra cost comes with extra imputed or actual rents. What's the waste?
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
So far as I can tell multiculturalism can't exist and has never existed. Multiethnicism, multiracialism, multinationalism is all possible, common and like Konstantin says can be great. But you can only have one dominant culture. Or you can have incessant conflict.
Konstantin Kisin@KonstantinKisin

Multiculturalism has failed. Even the politicians who pursued it now admit it. That's because diversity is not a strength, unity is. The solution to the failure of multiculturalism is monoculturalism, where all citizens subscribe to a shared national identity which is more important than their individual differences.

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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
@ZacGross What is the value proposition of university in the UI utopia? For dedicated people in the technical fields its much faster and easier to learn with AI. Will it just be networking, frontier research and signalling?
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Zac Gross
Zac Gross@ZacGross·
I think AI could revolutionise teaching at universities. But it will take a long time. Paper exams were super right up to covid. And a lot of the use cases for AI will require development beyond the scope of a vibe-coding professor.
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
@TheKouk Everyones years ahead on their mortgages. Everyones sitting on millions in equity. Everything is fine, relax. Stop trying to make people panic.
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Abul Rizvi
Abul Rizvi@RizviAbul·
@DrCameronMurray I have been critical of people who use NPLT as virtually identical to net migration. ABS has also criticised that. I have been using NPLT as one input to determining broad direction of net migration for at least a decade. It’s really not that complicated. independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
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Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray@DrCameronMurray·
Rizvi has regularly insulted others who use NPLT arrivals data as a leading indicator of net overseas migration. And now he is doing the same thing. So now it's not misleading? Weird
Cameron Murray tweet media
Abul Rizvi@RizviAbul

NPLT for March 26 surprisingly high 40,400 despite tightening of offshore student visa policy from Oct/Nov. Suggests NOM remaining above 300k for both 2025 & 25-26. Will Treasury upwardly revise its NOM forecasts in tonight’s Budget? Will govt now commit to actively managing NOM?

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Andrew Paul retweetledi
William Meijer
William Meijer@williameijer·
Diversity is a tax on cooperation that slows progress
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Cameron Kusher
Cameron Kusher@cmkusher·
@DrCameronMurray @ASPaul85 I think a lot of people are unaware or naive to how hard it can be to fall pregnant if you wait longer. We started trying to get pregnant in our mid-30s (didn’t meet until we were 30) and it was very hard.
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
@DrCameronMurray And concomitantly developed a culture which generously, deprioritizes motherhood, or less charitably actively discourages or demeans it. I regret that it took me so long to see this.
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Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray@DrCameronMurray·
@ASPaul85 Yep. I think we have developed a socio-economic system that is mismatched with the female body clock
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Andrew Paul
Andrew Paul@ASPaul85·
Performative compassion like this only gets interpreted as pathetic weakness. But more importantly it demonstrates that we don't value membership of our nation at all. We will accept any abuse. Betray us and treasonously join a death cult commited to destroying us - thats fine.
Mike Carlton@MikeCarlton01

The panic over the so-called ISIS brides is pathetic, whipped along by the usual suspects in the media and politics. They are Australian citizens. They’re legally entitled to return. If some have committed crimes they can be charged. Their kids, of course, are innocent.

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Keşfet

@DrCameronMurray @cmkusher @ZacGross @TheKouk @RizviAbul @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13