Ashwin M

@Mystic_Soul25 @grok which railway station is this?

Life of a cockroach

We are this @Cockroachisback @CJP_2029f2

@InvestWithJoshi I always used to believe the screener numbers, an eye opener for me. But even if it is 63 cr it is a small percentage of EBITDA. That's not considered good. Cash flow is the ultimate test for any business.

@Ashwin_Krypto Screener numbers are wrong.

If you believe land prices in India will NOT keep compounding at crazy rates like they did over the last 10 to 15 years, then Raymond Realty is probably one of the most mispriced real estate stocks in the market today. 👀 And honestly, I think most investors still do not understand this shift. The old Indian real estate playbook was simple: Buy massive land banks. Sit on appreciating assets. Keep leveraging the balance sheet. Watch NAVs explode higher. That model worked brilliantly from 2010 onwards because land prices kept moving up aggressively across every major city. But what if that cycle slows down now? Because realistically: how long can land prices keep compounding at the same pace in already expensive urban markets? 🤷‍♂️ This is exactly why Raymond Realty’s model looks structurally superior to Prestige Estates going forward. Yet the market is still pricing Prestige like the undisputed king while Raymond trades like some random regional developer. MARKET CAP Prestige Estates ~₹60,000 crore Raymond Realty ~₹4,000 crore. 15x valuation gap. Now let’s compare actual business performance. FY26 REVENUE Prestige ₹13,195 crore Raymond Realty ₹3,039 crore. FY26 PAT Prestige ~₹1,200 to ₹1,300 crore Raymond Realty ~₹305 crore. Prestige is obviously larger. Nobody is denying that. But here’s the part nobody wants to discuss properly. Prestige NEEDS massive capital deployment just to sustain growth. Huge land acquisitions. Commercial offices. Retail malls. Hotels. Large annuity assets. Heavy Mumbai and Hyderabad expansion. This works beautifully during strong land inflation cycles. Because asset appreciation itself does a lot of the heavy lifting. But if land appreciation slows? Then suddenly shareholders are left funding: massive balance sheets, slow moving assets, and years of locked capital. Which is exactly why despite all the scale, Prestige still generates: ~7% to 9% ROCE ~6% ROE with ~₹10,900 crore net debt. Now compare that with Raymond Realty. Raymond is not trying to become India’s biggest land hoarder. It is trying to become India’s most capital efficient developer. Huge difference. Instead of aggressively buying land, Raymond is scaling through JDAs across premium MMR markets like Bandra, Mahim, Sion and Wadala. Which means: lower capital requirement, faster project cycles, better inventory turns, stronger cash conversion, and far less balance sheet stress. And the return ratios are absolutely crushing Prestige. ROCE ~30.5% ROE ~37.7% Net debt ~₹656 crore only. 🚀 Now let’s talk about the biggest misconception around Raymond Realty. People still think this is just a Thane land monetization story. Wrong. Very wrong. Raymond already has: ~₹25,000 crore GDV from Thane land bank + ~₹14,000 crore JDA pipeline + future launch visibility pushing total GDV opportunity toward ~₹43,000 crore. A company sitting on ~₹43,000 crore development visibility is being valued at ~₹4,000 crore market cap. Read that again slowly. And unlike Prestige, Raymond is building this pipeline WITHOUT blowing up the balance sheet. Another thing people are completely ignoring is revenue booking quality. Prestige’s future earnings increasingly depend on long duration monetization cycles where huge capital stays tied up inside annuity assets and mega projects for years. Raymond’s JDA model creates much faster capital recycling because the company does not waste enormous upfront capital buying land. Which means: better IRRs, better cash flow velocity, better shareholder returns. Honestly, I think the market is still pricing Prestige based on old cycle assumptions where land inflation alone keeps making developers richer every year. But the next decade may reward something very different: Execution. Capital efficiency. Cash flow discipline. Balance sheet strength. And if that happens, Raymond Realty at current valuations looks ridiculously underpriced while Prestige honestly looks priced for perfection. 🔥 Some people will hate this take. But I think Raymond Realty has a far better chance of outperforming Prestige from here over the next 5 years.

@InvestWithJoshi In screener it is showing -237 crores last year, a year before that - 226 crores and this year -910 crores. Thus not a single positive year.

@Ashwin_Krypto Last year CFO was 63 cr this year it got negative because of front loading cost of new launches which is not a concern.

@HelleLyngSvends Lot of anger against the govt in the youth and the govt is marred by scams where ordinary citizens are just treated as cockroaches. Since all legitimate ways of raising the issue is blocked the anger is manifesting in the form of satire. In India media is a cheerleader of govt.

Reading about the Cockroach Janta Party. What would you say the movement tells us about India?

@GulPanag He is not the PM. He was voted out of power but he fudged the numbers in Phase 2.

Not cool. You can dislike a Prime Minister, disagree with a government, protest, debate and vote differently. That’s democracy. But reducing the office of India’s Prime Minister, the man, the office, and what he represents abroad, to a joke on foreign soil -doesn’t feel like the right thing or dissent - to me. It diminishes him, the institution, and ultimately, us.

Indian Agents are in a deep comfort zone - sadly, that prohibits meaningful reform. The need for course correction was never larger; when die-hard optimists lose hope.... indianexpress.com/article/opinio…

For me, my first most bullish ( from a country, not a stock market sense) moment was when Rajiv Gandhi became PM. I was entering the IT industry, in HCL, and over the next few months & years, the induction of top tech pros like Pitroda, Bhatkar ( CDOT, CDAC) etc, made me super enthused about India's tech future. At HCL, we felt it every day. Our small car, bikes, IT services, sectors were born, nurtured under him. I was young but I felt an energy in the country. His speech at the US Congress '85: " I have a dream..." was goose pimples stuff. And what a looker! What a visionary. Our tech course would have been better and higher in tech had he become PM again. It was a loss India & India's Tech never really recovered from.

@ananyashasau I expected that police will ask for bribe but they didn't.

Is there even a single person in India whose passport was made without paying a bribe? 😭 Are any of you here that lucky? And if not, how much did you have to pay?

@MashraniVivek He is shorting the rupee by buying usd.

Try shorting the market then 😇

@Cockroach4India Hey Indian PM, CMs of states, MLAs, MPs should produce his/her educational qualification, this should be a reasonable demand.

@NorthstarCharts I saw the same kind of argument here youtube.com/watch?v=mCKCM-…

IT'S COMING - IT'S A QUESTION OF WHEN, NOT IF 👇

Modi's India proves India's standing in the press freedom Index. India exposes itself globally.

@CJP_2029 Not only Dharmendra Pradhan but Ashwini Vaishnav, S Jaishankar, Piyush Goyal, Nirmala Sitaraman, Amit Shah and Surrender Modi must be kicked out.

If you are a cockroach write - Dharmendra Pradhan must resign!

@abhijeet_dipke Aye

As the Founder of the Cockroach Janta Party, I hereby propose a resolution that if the CJP comes in power, no Chief Justice shall be granted a Rajya Sabha seat as a post-retirement reward. All those in favour, say “Aye.”

Nehru did not inherit India. Nehru made India joining 800 princely states and making a nation out of them. Literacy was 10% and life expectancy 32 years. Bakchodi ki bhi koi limit hai.

@hmalviya9 But you have embraced AI which is nothing but a machine ecosystem and you are advocating using it then how come humans will suffer because of this?

Humans were sitting top at the resource chain, they thought they are the most powerful beings on the planet, and they misused their power to dominate the nature in way where other animals, and plants are going through slow death everyday.. now same humans created machines so they could rule each other, machines will eventually make the whole human race suffer the same way how we did it with animals, birds, plants, rivers, mountains and other part of nature. It’s a payback time.

@Akshat_World Excellent

As INR hits 96, this is a good time to re-read this thread that I wrote 16 months ago. And, explained why you should move to global assets. And, prepare for an INR fall.

@dmuthuk Because the party you support @BJP4India is busy covering up all the bad issues and taking credit for the good ones even if they didn't have anything to do with it.

Only from reading Putin's message, I came to know that more than 100 people have died due to heavy rains in Uttar Pradesh. Why our media did not cover this national calamity? We are coming to know only from Russian President as to what is happening in Uttar Pradesh.