BJ Mac

The latest from the Analysts The Analyst Output for the Week open.substack.com/pub/cethoughts… #Investing #Investment #Finance #StockMarket #Stocks #FinancialMarkets

New Post from the Analysts Narrowing Ledge open.substack.com/pub/cethoughts…

New Post from the Analysts open.substack.com/pub/cethoughts… #markets #economy #outlook #stockmarkets

New Post from the Analysts open.substack.com/pub/cethoughts… "The panel converges on a structurally bearish 20-day outlook anchored by three independent lines of evidence that happen to say the same thing." #macro #markets #investing #trading #finance

We all better hope #ai continues to chug because the rest of the economy is flatlining.

Fascinating view in #realestate. Most think there will never be enough housing - this argues we are in the tip of having too much!

New post from the Analysts "Thin Ice at the Ceiling" open.substack.com/pub/cethoughts…

Posted the first note this morning from my analyst crew on the markets. Will continue doing so with this experiment using a unique technology Here is the link to the site: cethoughts.substack.com

New note from the Analysts Our combined models support a constructive intermediate-term outlook while the near-term setup has turned decisively cautious. open.substack.com/pub/bmacleanin…

new substack on a project I am running - open.substack.com/pub/bmacleanin…

This confirms ~ 13-day onshore storage estimate: Iran is now using containers and "junk storage" (disused tanks in poor condition) in Ahvaz and Asaluyeh to avoid cutting production. And now rail. They're delay tactics measured in days, not weeks. 1. Why rail is a dead end: Iran's own senior rail transport expert Morteza Naserian told Mehr News there are only 2 rail corridors to China, never used for petroleum, with severely limited capacity and zero bulk crude infrastructure. 2. The floating storage "fix" is equally thin. Iran pulled NASHA (IMO 9079107), a 30-year-old retired VLCC, out of the breakers. NASHA buys ~48 hours. 3. Jask terminal storage tanks have reportedly already hit maximum capacity as of April 25. Some tankers are now anchored near Kharg acting as improvised overflow. a fleet the Islamic Republic can't replicate at scale. 4. The 2020 precedent that some point out to (85% storage utilization + 120 Mbbl afloat) was managed under very different conditions (I was watching it from the inside): it was sanctions without a naval blockade, and with active export channels still partially open. That escape valve is gone now, and Iran's tankers (including its ghost fleet) are already filled up with 166M barrels. 5. Bottom line: containers, junk tanks, retired VLCCs, and rail fantasies are not a storage strategy. They're the last moves of a system running out of room, exactly on the timeline that was estimated. Don't forget about the gasoline shortage clock. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…

Its interesting - we live in a world where each headline determines if the equity market climbs or energy skyrockets. Till recently, the war was not affecting us much at the crude level - however, all three products are rolling. More war = more economic damage #EnergyMarkets

@aakashgupta On this post, I tried codex because my usage is locked with claude for another hour. Problem is codex I think messed something up within it which is going to require me to have claude fix the mistake OR it uncovered a claude mistake. Great post!

"We will reset rate limits today" is the actual flex here. Resetting limits means OpenAI has spare compute to give away. Every Claude Code power user who's been rate-limited for months just read this tweet. That's the target audience. This is a poaching announcement aimed directly at Anthropic's base, dressed up as a growth update. The math backs the flex. OpenAI raised $122B last month and sits on 1.9 GW of compute, up from 0.2 GW three years ago. Anthropic's latest raise was smaller and its compute deal with Amazon's Trainium chips is still ramping. When you have surplus capacity, every unused GPU-hour is depreciation burning with no offset. Giving compute to users converts that depreciation into mindshare. Codex going 2M to 4M weekly in five weeks is the distribution flywheel doing its job. Codex sits inside ChatGPT subscriptions that 50M+ people already pay for, running on a base of 900M weekly ChatGPT users. Cursor had to acquire every user one IDE install at a time. Codex just flips a flag on an existing account. Shortest conversion funnel in AI coding. The Pragmatic Engineer survey from January still ranked Claude Code as the most-loved coding tool. VS Code extension ratings: Claude Code 4.0, Codex 3.4. OpenAI's counter strategy is to remove every friction point users hit elsewhere. Tight limits at Anthropic are one of those friction points. So today they're free. The strategic question isn't whether Codex catches Claude Code on quality. It's whether Anthropic can raise enough compute to match the free tier OpenAI is now willing to subsidize.

🇺🇸 Most Americans have never heard of Patriots Day, and almost no one outside the U.S. knows it exists. Yet it’s one of the most action-packed holidays in the country, and it holds a lot of significance. Celebrated only in Massachusetts and Maine, it marks the anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord, the opening shots of the American Revolution. Every year, on the third Monday of April (today), Boston holds its marathon at dawn, the Red Sox play a morning home game at America’s oldest ballpark, and reenactors fire muskets at each other in the suburbs. In 2013, two bombs were detonated near the finish line, killing 3 people and injuring hundreds more. The following year, Boston came back with record crowds lining the route, the city's defiance becoming as much a part of the day's identity as the race itself. The world's oldest annual marathon, a sold-out ballpark, a 250-year-old battle, and the stubborn refusal to be broken, all on the same morning, all in the same city.

Toughness is tradition. Let's do this, together 💪

@TouchlineX He has literally done nothing all year. this is not redemption. This was expected. too bad he came up hobbled....and my spurs puked on their shoes again.

🌟🥺Xavi Simons completed his redemption story: • Many fans doubted Xavi Simons’ decision to join Tottenham ahead of Chelsea, Arsenal, and other clubs • Simons chose Tottenham above everything, despite other clubs offering stronger projects • His start wasn’t easy, he struggled to adapt and faced heavy criticism • Today, he is Tottenham’s saviour... Scoring the goal that won them a point to try to save them from relegation • He celebrated the goal in tears, hugging all the fans Despite the draw, Xavi Simons scored a goal to secure an important point... Every single point matters in this battle. ✨

AI capabilities are on an exponential. This is why you hear people lol-ing results 12 months ago. Then 3 months ago they stop lol-ing. Then 4 weeks ago they felt threatened. Then 5 days ago they lost their job. Exponentials should not be taken lightly. Here's what the data says:

Asking is the most powerful skill you were systematically taught to avoid. From age three, every request you made was filtered through an adult's convenience. "Can I have ice cream?" became a negotiation about timing, behavior, and earning. "Can we go to the park?" required justification. "Can I stay up late?" needed a compelling case. By adolescence, asking felt like begging. By adulthood, you'd internalized that wanting something meant you were probably wrong to want it. The result? You learned to pre-reject yourself. Before asking your boss for a raise, you spend weeks building the case for why you don't deserve it. Before asking someone on a date, you convince yourself they're out of your league. Before asking for help, you exhaust every other option first. Most people approach asking like a courtroom where they're already guilty. The ones who get everything they want flipped the equation. They assume the answer is yes until proven otherwise. They ask with the confidence of someone collecting what's already theirs. They don't build cases. They make requests. The difference is the understanding that the person on the other side of your request isn't your judge. They're a collaborator trying to figure out if what you want aligns with what they can give. When you ask from a place of assumed worthiness rather than anticipated rejection, something shifts in how people hear you. Your request sounds like an invitation to participate in something good rather than a plea to be rescued from something bad. The world is full of people waiting for someone to ask them the right question. Your job isn't to guess what that question is. Your job is to ask what you actually want and let them decide if they want to be part of making it happen. Most of what you want is sitting behind conversations you haven't had yet.

Google is now asking PM candidates to open Cursor and build a working prototype in 45 minutes. Not engineers. Product managers. Figma does it. Perplexity does it. v0 does it. It's been confirmed on Blind and I've had candidates come back from these rounds stunned because nothing in their prep covered it. The round doesn't test whether you can code. It tests whether you can think through a product problem and make it real while someone watches. Scoping, trade-offs, what to build first, what to skip, how you handle the moment something breaks. All the product judgment that used to happen in a whiteboard case now happens in a live IDE. No framework saves you here. CIRCLES doesn't help. A product sense structure doesn't help. You either have reps in these tools or you freeze for 45 minutes while the interviewer writes their notes. Google removed the standalone technical interview for PMs entirely. They replaced it with this. The bar moved from "can you talk about technology" to "can you build with it while we watch." The candidates practicing behavioral answers and product cases are preparing for 4 out of 5 rounds. This is the round they don't know exists yet. And it's the one with a zero percent recovery rate. A mediocre behavioral answer still passes. A blank screen doesn't.

@heynavtoor Ai

Everyone is hyped about Claude… but barely anyone knows how to actually use it to replace real work. I collected 700+ mega prompts that turn Claude into a full-blown productivity engine. Comment "AI" and I’ll DM you everything.