BabyFish | Fish Pond TG

So many traders already predicting what markets will do before anything is even announced. It probably makes more sense to wait for the actual information first. Otherwise you come into the session carrying a bias you created out of nothing.

@BuiltByTrading Wait to see if tomorrow we pull and hold 50% or greater of today’s move. Then you can get involved and use tomorrow’s low to lean on.

@Babyfish_TG Missed the day one. Have alerts at top of today's pivot. But gapping up a decent amount already tonight. Missed the news if there was some. Most likely missed this trade. but most likely actionable mid to late next week after some rest or selling to reset

$IBM With a stand up and take notice day

@ScottiePippen 💯

Be thankful for the people who spoke to the winner in you before you started winning.

Step away when you make your money for the day and go enjoy your life. If you're on tilt, or feel like you're about to, step away and go enjoy your life. If you have hit your trade execution limit for the day, step away and go enjoy your life. Screens are not everything.

Benjamin Graham is turning over in his grave.

@Barchart And yet the stock market doesn’t care?

Private Credit Defaults soar to highest level in history 🚨🚨

The U.S. has been seeking to get more concrete guarantees on #Iran’s regime’s nuclear program, so I doubt this is the actual version. Again, would advise caution. Mediators wishcasting in the press to inject momentum into the talks despite divisions between both parties.

Five Middle Eastern countries have formally rejected Iran’s establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In a letter to a global shipping watchdog, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said commercial and merchant vessels shouldn’t engage with the PGSA or cross the waterway using a route designated by Iran. The letter was issued earlier this week and distributed by the International Maritime Organization. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

You cannot print molecules. You cannot print the rigs $BORR that lift them either. In a gold rush, the money isn't in the gold. It's in the picks and shovels. Shale is likely finished as a source of growth. The remaining short-cycle barrels now sit in shallow water — and the Middle East has spent fifteen years drilling its way offshore as its onshore fields deplete. Saudi, the UAE, Qatar: all the growth is offshore now. That barrel needs one thing above all else: a jack-up fleet. However, there are zero new orders and zero new-yard slots for years. Unsurprisingly the global fleet only shrinks — a third of the rigs on the water are over thirty years old and aging out. At $BORR they average seven. A newbuild theoretically costs $300m, and the dayrates haven’t come close to justifying one — rates must double, and lengthen, before a single rig gets ordered. Now layer the demand. The buyers are National Oil Companies (NOCs) in countries GDP is heavily exposed to the barrel — the most inelastic clients in any market. The fleet was already above 90% utilized and rising before the war. After the fighting stops: pent-up Gulf tenders, field declines to offset, shut wells to bring back. And the order book already tells you where this goes — energy-security pushing work in Vietnam, Malaysia, Suriname, Gabon. The security premium is no longer theoretical. It’s in the contracts. Either Hormuz reopens and pent-up demand from Saudi Arabia and the UAE skyrockets, or oil pushes into uncharted territory and the international NOCs pick up the tab. Few other energy assets are this exposed to both tails. Low-breakeven shallow-water barrels are the supply the world needs to meet the coming crunch. And pick-and-shovel maker gets paid whether or not the miner strikes. Now the part the market is missing. The whole enterprise trades at roughly forty cents on the cost of replacing its own steel. Enterprise value is about $4bn, split almost evenly — half debt, half equity. The debt is fixed. It does not re-rate. So every dollar the fleet gains as it runs toward newbuild parity falls straight through to the equity. That is the engine. The debt does not move; the steel does. Re-rate the fleet to what it would cost to rebuild, and the equity does not double — it quadruples. The equity does not track the steel. It multiplies it. The 4x leverage is not the risk in this trade. In the upcycle, the 4x is the trade. You can buy an irreplaceable strategic asset at less than half its replacement cost — with the leverage thrown in for free. The market is selling the quarter. We're buying the decade. $BORR is down 14% today on a delayed rig start-up and a one-time receivable provision — operational noise, not structural damage. Utilization held at 97%. Full-year coverage rose to 71%, and the back half of the year jumped from 48% to 65% booked. Nothing in the supply, the demand, or the steel has changed. The one thing that did move — the Middle East conflict — barely touched the financials and made the multi-year case stronger. Every affected rig is back at work. Tenders keep progressing. Management is more confident on 2027 and 2028, not less. The market is selling the noise and ignoring the signal. The dislocation is the entry. Get long. Buckle In. HALO.

@JoshYoung Just taking a page out of the admin’s playbook. Throw out some headlines to juice stocks and to get oil to dump.

Nice try. Oil is still over $100

Where is the amazing China deal we’ve been told about for months and months? Markets have spent a long time pricing in optimism, but eventually headlines need to turn into actual agreements and real economic follow-through. At some point, expectations meet reality.

@FirstSquawk And that helps how? It’s all optics!! Plus this will be reversed with the next admin.

TRUMP SET TO EASE CLIMATE REQUIREMENTS ON FOOD INDUSTRY REFRIGERATION – AXIOS

We’re almost at tank bottom but yet $WTI is pinned to $100 and $brent is not that much higher at around $108. How does that make any sense?

@StealthQE4 Couldn’t have said it any better.

This guy is the best. Spot on. I said this last night. We’ve been abandoned by the political class. They literally hate us at this point. We’re a nuisance to them.

@tradertheory Absolutely zero respect for risk. But how can you blame them? How do you respect a market that hasn’t hurt anyone in 16yrs? The market has become a gambling casino with zero respect for risk.

This is who you're trading against.

Everyone keeps expecting oil to collapse. Meanwhile inventories continue tightening and we are getting closer to tank bottoms. The market is already running in deficit — now it becomes a race against the clock as supply pressure continues building. #Oil #WTI #EnergyMarkets

Equities trying to stabilize this morning, but the real story continues to be the bond market. Yields remain elevated while oil volatility keeps inflation concerns front and center. #SPX #NQ #Bonds #Oil