Pav

If there’s one thing I’ve generally done quite well this year from a trading perspective - it’s being on the right side of the market / trades Whenever I’ve gone against something as simple as a set of moving averages in the past, guess what ? They were losing trades - despite cutting them early - it was often looking for mean reversion trades that just aren’t there. A good system : trade filter should keep you out of sub par trades. When I look at bitcoin here my last 4 trades have been short over a 2 week period - having now lost the daily 12/21/25 ema bands as well various lower time frames - I would need to see something compelling or shift in micro structure to entertain longs again. Again much of what I’ve stated really depends on the trade context or trading style - scalping ? Intraday ? Intraweek? I’m primarily trading intraweek for Q4 Less trades higher probability setups with conviction.

The Real Risk Behind a 10% Yield in a 4% World A 10.25% yield looks like a no brainer especially when Treasuries are offering somewhere around 3.5% to 4.6% across the curve. But when something promises more than double the risk free rate, that spread is the market pricing in risk that investors might not fully understand. STRC isn’t a Treasury, a CD, or even a corporate bond. It’s a preferred security issued by Strategy Inc., which means you’re not lending to the U.S. government or even to a diversified company, you’re lending to one firm, on subordinate terms, with no federal insurance, no collateral protection, and no guaranteed liquidity. The fine print makes this clear. STRC isn’t backed by the company’s bitcoin or hard assets; it’s just a preferred claim on whatever remains after other creditors are paid. That’s a massive distinction. If Strategy runs into financial trouble, preferred shareholders are behind the banks and bondholders in line. And unlike a bond, there’s no contractual obligation for the company to keep paying. The 10.25% dividend can be reduced, deferred, or canceled altogether, and it resets monthly so it’s not a locked in yield, just a moving target based on market conditions and company decisions. The dividend is also based on a stated value of $100 per share, not necessarily what you pay in the market, meaning if the share price drops to $90, your yield on paper rises, but your capital is already eroding. This is especially important in the current economic climate. The Fed is signaling rate cuts because parts of the system are weakening. In that kind of environment, liquidity risks rise, credit spreads widen, and refinancing costs increase. Companies offering double digit yields are often doing so because traditional credit markets demand even higher rates or won’t lend to them at all. If a mild recession hits or funding dries up, dividends can be paused to preserve cash, and preferreds like STRC can sink fast. You might collect a few months of high payouts and then find the market price down 30–40% with no buyers in sight. There’s also reinvestment and call risk. If rates fall sharply, Strategy could redeem the preferreds at $100, capping your upside just as safer yields are dropping. And because these aren’t government backed or widely traded, exiting your position may not be easy, liquidity can vanish overnight. The glossy marketing pitch leans on monthly dividends and brand association, but the real equation is yield versus structural risk. That 10% is the market’s way of telling you you’re being paid to shoulder concentrated credit, liquidity, and market risk in a tightening financial system. A 10% yield in a 4% world should make you ask why it exists, not how fast you can get in. The fine print already answers the question, it’s a high risk security dressed up like a high income opportunity.

It’s honestly not that difficult. The waiting game is what many screw up. Personal preference: not a fan of dollar cost averaging into a losing trade - I’d rather dca into a winning position.

This latest PA on BTC has me confused we either bounce 117.500 and continue higher or we go back 112k and I am thinking of ultimatly 96k. It just seems really strange to go where it did and not break the low and sweep the highs. It doesn't make sense for BTC to go lower then 112k tbh with all the etf inflows , but if it does it will fuck so many people