Bernard Yaros

We modeled two scenarios in which former President Donald #Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of Congress after the 2024 election. Download our full report here: okt.to/qBmdtk

In this week’s #BeyondtheHeadlines, Bernard Yaros, Lead Economist, outlines two scenarios for the #US #economy if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans sweep #Congress. Explore the scenarios here: okt.to/JraHm1

We modeled the macroeconomic impact of a second #Trump presidency. 🗓️🎧 Join Ryan Sweet and Bernard Yaros for our upcoming #US webinar, register now okt.to/wphtzg and learn more about #inflation, #GDP, monetary policy, trade and #immigration.

Mapping CPI and PPI details to the PCE deflator points toward a 0.4% m/m increase in January. Not the start of the year the Fed wanted but remember, it's only one month. Plenty of inflation data will be released before the May meeting and disinflation is in the pipeline.

.@OxfordEconomics has 5 states flipping to GOP, led by inflation-hate "This is the 1st update of our 2024 US Presidential Election model. We will update our state-based election models 3 more times this year and introduce county-based election models for key battleground states"

Our election models are up and running. Spoiler alert, it’s a nailbiter and could come down to voter’s moods on inflation. We constructed three state-based election models that seek to capture the different perspectives on inflation that swing voters may have.

It costs $734 more each month to buy the same goods and services as two years ago for US households who earn the median income: Moody’s Mark Zandi bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

We're 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐚 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 our Build Your Own #TaxExtensions model, which let's users decide how to extend, reform, and/or expire all parts of the $3.4 trillion of TCJA tax policies expiring after 2025. Try it out and let me know what you think! crfb.org/blogs/tax-cut-…

#MarkZandi: The Treasury may run out of the cash it needs to pay all of the government's bill on June 1, but it almost surely will by June 8. #DebtLimit #DebtCeiling

Moody's Analytics has updated two #alternativescenarios that bookend the #economicimpact of a #debtceilingbreach. Read @MarkZandi, @AdamKamins, and @BernardYaros analysis: moodysanalytics.com/-/media/articl…

“A selloff in stock and bond markets may be what’s required to get donors and voters to pound on lawmakers’ doors to stop the drama and increase the limit,” @Markzandi tells @CNN on the #DebtCeiling cnn.com/2023/05/22/bus…

Mark has done some great analysis on the chaos that would ensure if we do not lift the debt ceiling or do a way with it entirely. The 14th Amendment is no panacea given threat it could be overruled by SCOTUS.⬇️ Hard to see the Fed not stepping in. The 2013 “playbook” …

Check out the latest Inside Economics episode in which I discuss silver linings in the April #ConsumerPriceIndex and the dark clouds ahead with the #DebtLimit. Always an enjoyable conversation w/ @MarkZandi ⁦@MiddleWayEcon⁩ & Marisa DiNatale. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moo…

Read more about the regional impacts of a debt limit breach in my latest analysis with @Markzandi and Adam Kamins here: moodysanalytics.com/-/media/articl…

States that rely most on the federal government (e.g. DC) would suffer the greatest job losses initially in a prolonged debt limit breach. As the resulting recession takes on a life of its own, highly cyclical state economies like MI, FL & NV would see job losses mount into 2024.

Great article by @MattEganCNN @CNN covering the main points of our latest research assessing the economic hit to U.S. state economies from a #DebtLimit breach. See 🧵 below for some additional visuals on regional vulnerabilities… cnn.com/2023/05/10/eco…

Odds of lawmakers not acting in time & letting @USTreasury default on its obligations for any period of time are uncomfortably high. Recession would be sure to ensue in this dark scenario. Read about our #debtlimit research in this article by @nicolenarea vox.com/politics/2023/…