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Cathedra Capital
126 posts
@MikeFritzell Sounds like the thesis is pretty good for shorting VWO against developed country indexes (of course adjusting for the business cycle).
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Four types of emerging markets
- US-backed manufacturing powers
- Communism-lite autocracies
- Stable oligarchies
- Resource kleptocracies
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@BTCoptioneer Not if BTC heads to its realized price of 54k.
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$MSTR
- Amplification 36%
- Leverage 9%
$ASST
- Amplification 44%
- Leverage 0%
Both are fairly conservative.
Both can be more aggressive if they choose to be.
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Prior to 1982 stock values didn't increase significantly faster than the GDP. It was only afterward that stock gains started significantly outpacing GDP.
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@VolatilityVIX He was a deficit hawk. Didn't like the big spending bills they recently passed.
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This is a legit question because I try my hardest to not follow politics so I don't really know
Aside from the Iran war and the release of the Epstein files, is there any other major issues Massie went against Trump on?
The_Real_Fly@The_Real_Fly
Trump: "We won the Massie thing. He was a bad guy. He deserved to lose."
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Equal-weighted NASDAQ 100 is sitting right near a record low relative to the cap-weighted NASDAQ 100
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@orrdavid Maybe they're pricing in a longer and longer Hormuz closure timeline?
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@RodriGo_ethe HFND takes the returns data of hedge funds, infers their positioning from that, then creates a portfolio of stock indexes and corporate bonds (generally speaking) that imitates the return profile of the hedge funds.
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@CapitalCathedra I take this is built using historical data, but what are they actually betting on?
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@RodriGo_ethe SDIV is a great short that David also shorts in ORR. The long term absolute returns are barely positive even with the dividend. HFND borrow rate is 3-4% but it's basically a low beta product that has underperformed (long corp bond futures and emerging and value).
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@CapitalCathedra Ha you said it yourself, do you like the fixed income nature of the product? it's maybe offsetting SDIV short in that sense...
how's borrow on HFND? I don't exactly understand how they track the HF gross returns tbh.
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Rate rises have been the most common prick that pops bubbles throughout history.
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YouTube
QME
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"With these perpetuals, they never have to return your principal. You're totally dependent on secondary markets. If liquidity tightens, the infinite duration could mean a bigger price dislocation than most of us think." - @LeveredUSTs
The risk nobody's pricing in on STRC.
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I'm also on the side of the Fed not hiking from here. Another question is that if the Iran Conflict is temporary, how much further can rates really go from current levels?
Michael Kao@UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 5/15/26: The Iran War and its consequent Oil Shock has truly put the Fed in a bind. But I'm not so sure this leads to Fed Hikes as many seem to be predicting. What makes this bout of Oil-led Inflation DIFFERENT than 2021-2022 is that it's NOT Demand-Led and that it's happening amidst secular DEFLATIONARY trends brought about by AI. Gasoline at $7 (at least here in CA) is DEMAND DESTRUCTIVE. Hiking would also be DEMAND DESTRUCTIVE. AI is also DEMAND DESTRUCTIVE on many sectors outside of AI. While I don't see imminent Rate Cuts anymore, neither do I see imminent Rate Hikes. I think we're walking a tightrope between Inflation and a weakening Consumer / Labor market, and the Fed needs to reserve firepower in either direction when it becomes clearer which side dominates.
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Shiller P/E (CAPE ratio) is now over 42 ! 🚨
Getting pretty close to the most overvalued stock market in history
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@SowingAlphaSeed @alphaarchitect Have you seen the spread on $HFND vs. $QQQ? Remarkably stable during lifetime with ~10% drawdowns. Worked really well to hedge in the Liberation day selloff (excess downside beta).
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@alphaarchitect I just reviewed the ~30 ETFs I was short and one was actually issued by @alphaarchitect ($CHGX). I closed the short!
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Another signal is the issuer. e.g. you can go through all of the Tidal ETFs and find a lot of junk. @alphaarchitect on the other hand seems to have a quality filter on what they're willing to sponsor.
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed
For shorts, I'm almost exclusively short crappy ETFs. Qualities I look for in shorts are: - poor past performance - absurd premise for a fund - managers that are better talkers/marketers than PMs - high distributions - more downside beta than upside beta - high fees - low borrow - hedges something i'm exposed to - etc
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@SowingAlphaSeed @alphaarchitect Yes... keep leaking that short alpha!
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But with one bubble over, the possibility for bubbles to form come elsewhere... $QQQ
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Looks like the Gold and Silver bubble are done for now. Might be down from here, or perhaps years of sideways action. Especially in Silver, bubble action is punished harshly for years to come...
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Nasdaq up 7 weeks in a row. I feel like fading it a bit, but at the same time this is a lock out rally that will go higher and higher before correcting (if ever)
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