Cmac

@Amena__Bakr great coverage 👍

Here is the answer: Adjust downward the overall production by 2 mb/d, from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022 for OPEC and Non-OPEC Participating Countries #OOTT

@Big_Orrin Are you expecting a 1.6m bpd increase in May (ie the whole OPEC+ reference level revision)? Concensus seems to be we move from +400kbd/mnth to +430kbd/mnth, but it is no clear in OPEC+ communications...

@markfny While the threat of sanctions are probably part of the reason urals weakness, it is also to do with the prompt trading cycle of the grade being impacted by the extreme CFD backwardation. Makes is so much more expensive for a refiner to buy. They are better off running inventory.

Urals getting crushed (again)- new offer at $4.05 less dated Brent and still no bid. I talk more about it below. China already purchased some, and they will likely show up as a buyer as prices move lower. youtube.com/watch?v=TFHsdd…

@Big_Orrin I despair. The contrast between the British approach of lectures and hollow warnings vs the French/German approach of trying to find a solution, is just embarrassing.

@anasalhajji Saudi increased by 139kbd vs the 105kbs permitted under the OPEC+ agreement. Are they perhaps catching up on their underproduction from 1h'21 to fulfil demand?

OPEC production increased in September by 486 kb/d. But look at the increases, there is one surprise, what is it? #OPEC #oil #OOTT

Does Russia unilaterally removed condensate from their quota not mean that ~700 kbd additional production can come to market? Does this not potentially wipe out the 500kbd cut?! #OOTT