Connor Ciomko

@rushtropicalwx 2014-2015 or 2015-2016 season?

@ConnorCiomko What did you get in 2015?

The EMI is forecasting a strong CP El Nino index in the back end. Even stronger than 2015 and opposite of 1997 indicating a hybrid event rather than canonical all the way through. Research shows that this does NOT lead to warming of the east tropical Atlantic as a canonical.

@Climate_Earth20 What do you mean when you say “it won't compliment until winter”?

There's a lot of noise regarding the coming El Niño, here are 3 of the strongest we have on record. Note that the PDO was favourable on all events being positive. 2026 to date has a negative anomaly, it could change but it won't compliment until winter ❄️❄️

@PaulRoundy1 Any early predictions for a more east or central based El Niño during winter 2026-2027?

@WxOntario1 I think the upcoming pattern has the potential to produce snow events in the GTA if the storm track is favourable.

🏳️‍ #OnWx #ONStorm

@PaulRoundy1 Are you expecting a moderate or strong El Niño later this year? At this point, would you know if it will be a modoki signature by winter?

@MeteoMark Do you think models will trend colder for March 5-15 period or do you expect some warmup?

We are about to enter the 4th straight month of models showing a big warm-up for the Northeast in weeks 3-4 that never comes. I’m sure one of these times it will work out, but I remain skeptical. 🧐 #wxtwitter #wxX

@naturemccurdy You mean a weak El Niño is likely to develop this summer?

@MeteoMark Any thoughts on the weather pattern late February into March? Will the cold/snow return to the East?

@WxOntario1 @morris98l Do you think road closures may persist into Saturday in areas east of Lake Huron?

@morris98l Road closures galore...again 😮‍💨

Significant travel impacts are now certain tomorrow afternoon/ evening across rural areas of SW/ Central #Ontario Several hours of Blizzard Conditions in the evening across rural areas as wind gusts of 60-80+km/hr combined with falling snow/ blowing snow will lead to complete whiteout conditions Road closures are likely east of Lake #Huron Many roads will likely become impassable overnight due to significant drifting Strong winds continue into Saturday #OnWX #ONStorm

@MeteoMark Do you believe the warmer trends in models for next week?

@JVinos_Climate To clarify, are you expecting an El Niño similar to 2018-2019 winter? Do you know if it will be central based at this point next winter?

The Equatorial Pacific is warming, and La Niña conditions are disappearing by midwinter. My forecast of an ENSO-neutral year appears to be correct. February should be neutral, with El Niño conditions expected by summer or early fall.

@natlforecast What would this mean weather wise for late December - January in the GTA?

Another run, but the ridge is too strong for comfort. ECMWF Seasonal shows something pretty similar. Alongside that, CFS shows something close even for January. Take everything with a grain of salt, this is very very far out. #onwx #onstorm #toronto

@bam_weather What are your thoughts on lake effect snow this upcoming winter?

With La Niña looking to remain on the weaker side, other pattern drivers will have a big impact on the winter pattern. The biggest factor to watch for the East Coast will be the NAO tendency. The orientation of Atlantic SSTs tend to favor a +NAO/southeast US ridge. Data also tends to transition into more of a Central Based La Niña which favors a +NAO/southeast US ridge. Much more intrigued about a big winter in the Midwest vs. the East Coast right now given these tendencies. Full breakdown here: youtu.be/eGjoVw9NQ_E

@stormwx1 What did the 12z Euro show for snow amounts for the GTA?

Forecast map through Sun PM across SON including Toronto. Widespread 25-35cm along the 401 corridor but potential for 40+cm especially north of the GTA. Less amounts along north shore of Lake Erie with some ice pellets likely. Will take several days to fully clear snow in GTA.

@stormwx1 That’s impressive! Just hints at the potential if everything comes together. One to watch very closely. Appreciate all your posts during this winter season.

@ConnorCiomko Inches it shows more than 50 in the GTA. And that’s within <72 hour lead time.

Hall of famer

@AnthonyFarnell Mix of snow and ice pellets Toronto and north.

A major winter storm headed for southern Ontario later this week. Worst of it will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning but still big ??? with precip type. Will it be snow or ice pellets or freezing rain or all 3?

@AnthonyFarnell $230

‘Cashing in’ my piggy bank today. Anybody want to guess how much money I have here before I start counting?

@AnthonyFarnell Any thoughts you can share on the upcoming winter for the GTA? When will you be releasing your winter forecast for Canada?