Unrealized Delusions 🎭

@Kalhageneset @KramerKarma1 What value per share could we get at the end of this commodity supercycle ? > 10$ > 15$ ?

@KramerKarma1 Can’t wait for the Taguas assay results and Bolivia OSP startup news! $ORV.TO

$CERT.TO Cerrado Gold. Ncib 10-20k shares/d seems token vs the limit of 90,597/d: the Company may not acquire more than 2% of the Common Shares, equating to 2,717,916 Common Shares, in any 30-day period. ~close to 10% of vol & est. 6.1m vs.6.7m 5% limit/yr youtu.be/z2s0CEnD4-g?si…

@Silver__Santa What value per share could we get at the end of this commodity supercycle ? > 10$ > 15$ ?

$ORV.TO $ORVMF - ORVANA MINERALS US$235M market cap. Two producing mines. Three countries. Zero analyst coverage. Q2 FY2026 just landed: $54.4M revenue (all-time record, +104% YoY), $19.6M net income, $29.9M operating cash flow. No equity dilution — 136.6M shares, unchanged for years. And the market barely flinched. Gold-equivalent production is on track to triple from ~35k oz to ~106k oz by FY2027 — organically. Don Mario (Bolivia) poured its first doré bar on March 10, 2026. The oxide stockpile sitting above ground contains $1.33 billion in metal — 5.7× the entire market cap. Once copper cathode production ramps, by-product credits could push consolidated AISC into deeply negative territory. Free gold. Literally. At $4,565 Au and $6.20 Cu, illustrative FY2027 free cash flow: $130–165M. On a $235M company. That's a ~1.5× P/FCF. The kicker nobody's watching is Argentina, 15 km from ATEX Resources' C$1.3B Valeriano porphyry, drill hole TADD-278 logged A/B veins and molybdenite at 1,332m — textbook porphyry core indicators. Assays from the critical 920–1,332m interval are pending now. A hit could be worth multiples of the entire company. A miss is already priced in. The valuation gap is absurd. Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) reported the same calendar quarter: Orvana beat them on revenue (+38%), EBITDA (+8%), and net income (+23%). Avino's market cap? US$1.32B. That's 5.6× Orvana. On worse numbers. Among ~100k oz producers, the cheapest peer trades at $5,688/oz of production. Orvana at FY2027 targets: $2,217/oz. Peer average: ~$10,000/oz. Three assets. Three countries. One stock priced like a single-mine junior with no growth. The reasons are structural — thin float (51.9% locked by Fabulosa), zero sell-side coverage, Bolivia discount, complex multi-asset story. Every one of those factors is temporary. The cash flow isn't.

Gold miners are set to outperform We are in the 2nd breakout of gold miners after a multi-decade consolidation phase - 1940–1960: consolidation phase - 1960–1980: 25x return in 20 yrs - 1980–2025: consolidation phase These breakouts after multi-decade consolidation phases tend to be explosive and volatile.

@long_equity Avoid Commodity Sectors 😃... We are in a Commodity Supercycle but ok. Happen once or Twice in 100 years...

I recently rewatched a great interview with Chris Hohn (TCI Fund), as well as reading the recent FT article. Here are my notes on how he invests: What would you add?

🏰 Monopolies TSMC - advance semi fab ASML – EUV lithography Verisign - domain name registry Fair Isaac – credit scores Intuit – tax preparation software Thermo Fisher – ultra-high-end mass spec Illumina – high-throughput DNA sequencing CoStar – U.S. commercial real estate data Sherwin-Williams – architectural paint distribution (U.S.) ⚔️ Duopolies Visa / Mastercard – credit cards Airbus / Boeing – aircraft PepsiCo / Coca-Cola – drinks AMD / Nvidia – GPU chips Apple / Samsung – smartphones Cadence / Synopsys - chip design software IDEXX / Zoetis - veterinary diagnostics Novo Nordisk / Eli Lily - weight loss drugs ICE / Nasdaq - US stock exchanges 🧱 Oligopolies Alphabet / Microsoft / Amazon – cloud infrastructure Fortinet / Crowdstrike / Palo Alto - cybersecurity AT&T / Verizon / T-Mobile – U.S. telecom ExxonMobil / Chevron / BP / Shell – oil & gas majors JPMorgan / Bank of America / Citigroup / Wells Fargo – U.S. big banks Meta / Google / TikTok / Snap – social media platforms ADP / Paychex / Paycom / Workday – payroll and HR software Carrier / Trane / Johnson Controls / Comfort Systems – HVAC and building systems Moody’s / S&P / Fitch - credit rating Equifax / Experian / Transunion - credit data Air Products / Linde / Air Liquide - industrial gas Booking / Expedia / Airbnb - travel Heico / Transdigm - aircraft components What would you add?

UPDATED: I've recently refreshed my list of Global Compounders. What would you add or remove?

Put it on the board!

The S&P 500 has been doing the same thing since 1920 and almost nobody frames it correctly. A new technology arrives. Markets expand for roughly 25 years while that technology reshapes the economy. Then a short consolidation. Then the next technology arrives and does it again. 🔸Electronics: 24 years of expansion. 🔸PCs and internet: 25 years of expansion. 🔸AI and smartphones: we're in year 15. Every single consolidation phase felt like the end of the world. Every single expansion phase felt "too extended" by year 10. We've been in "too extended" territory for about 5 years now. The last two cycles ran for another decade after reaching this exact point.

Thought this was interesting. China's % of global demand for each commodity

@MathieuJ_X Les Patrons Pétroliers ont déjà du téléphoner à la Maison Blanche de ce risque il y a déjà plusieurs semaines... Et donc si ce détroit reste bloqué, c'est qu'il y a une autre raison... Ce qui s'en vient sera sans aucune mesure...

La situation du choc pétrolier a passé le point de non-retour. Même en cas de déblocage total ce soir, la logistique ne peut ni rattraper la demande immediate avant août ni, structurellement, la rattraper à moyen terme à cause des destructions de capacité de raffinage. On est parti pour un choc pétrolier historique quoi qu'il arrive et le taux américain atteint désormais son niveau de 2007. Bon courage a tous et thank you for your attention in this matter.

Direction Year 2030. Gold $10,000 Silver $350 Oil $400 Bitcoin $250,000 (first $37k) $SPX 10,000 (first 5,800)

$DXY / $CPIAUCSL 1M; The #dollar is often called one of the strongest fiats. But no fiat is truly strong when measured against real assets instead of other currencies. Compare it to inflation or #gold, and the picture changes fast. Fiat loses value over time. Gold preserves it. #gold is king

Does the moon affect stock markets.. This data is INSANE.

Full moon tomorrow, and markets are looking frothy. So I tested whether there’s any pattern in market returns across moon phases, then threw “proximity to payday” into the mix. Oddly, the standout pocket was: Full moon + payday window. Average returns were higher in that overlap. Guess “to the moon” was more literal than we thought.

What do Amphenol, Comfort Systems and KLA all have in common? They have all outperformed the S&P 500 in 9 of the last 10 years. That's not 10 years overall. That’s each individual year they've consistently outperformed.

@peer_metals We are in Overheating but Inflation is growing up fast...

BREAKING 🚨: Ray Dalio live on CNBC just now. 🎙️ "We are certainly in a stagflationary period." No rate cuts coming. Markets in trouble. The 1970s had stagflation too. Gold ran 2,300%. Silver ran 3,000%. 🥇 #RayDalio #Stagflation #PreciousMetals

Sulfuric acid is the most important ingredient for our whole industry. Because of Hormuz and export controls, we have lost a huge chunk of global production. Sulfur/sulfuric acid is needed for: Fertilizer -> food Mining -> copper, nickel, zinc, uranium Water treatment Manufacturing -> plastic, paints, synthetic fibers, drugs, explosives Even before the Hormuz crisis, sulfur prices were surging... now a desperate situation is getting worse. When the most used industrial ingredient is surging, expect prices across the whole global supply chain to rise

Every single midterm year since 1974. Same pattern. 1974 Ford: −35% 1978 Carter: −15% 1982 Reagan: −17% 1986 Reagan: −10% 1990 Bush: −20% 1994 Clinton: −8% 1998 Clinton: −22% 2002 Bush: −34% 2006 Bush: −8% 2010 Obama: −17% 2014 Obama: −10% 2018 Trump: −20% 2022 Biden: −27% 2026 Trump: ??? Every single one had a significant drawdown. Every single one recovered. The long-term chart kept going up. The question for 2026 is not if it recovers. The question is whether you will still be invested when it does.

@badcharts1 It went ballistic !!

Orvana Minerals is another occult gold stock with some upside potential (found on Don's goldstockdata.com)... 3-4 bagger from here. $ORV #gold #silver #fintwit $GDX $GDXJ $SIL $SILJ $GLD $SLV $SPX

@WisdomOfJustice @Boombastic700 Above $10 at the end of the super commodity cycle

@Boombastic700 $ORV.TO 30 million in EBITDA! $20M in NET PROFIT! And the OSP is about to start spitting out 💵! + another $35M CF/qtr $ORV also reiterated guidance for OSP Whick MEANS over next 5 months: 13k to 14k 🥇 at $2300 AISC 6.7 to 7.5 MILLION LBS of CU at $3 AISC PLUS 🥈!!!!! $3?

Good call by Santa. The massive allocation proves the conviction. $ORV.TO