Hugh Naylor

JUST IN: Sweden says France’s nicotine pouch ban is an “attack on the Swedish way of life”

He’s right, Israel will face a more dangerous strategic reality, on in which the Iron Wall doctrine favored by Netanyahu will hit up against a coalition of states which, whatever their internal disagreements, are united in wanting to oppose Israeli regional dominance. With the U.S. likely to disengage more from the region, after having been burned by an Israeli-encouraged war, a new regional architecture may emerge, one with which Israel will have to deal, without hubris. The Iron Wall cannot survive as a realistic concept in this environment, and some sort of Israeli reassessment will impose itself sooner or later.

The U.S. burned through so many Tomahawk missiles during the fighting with Iran that scheduled munitions deliveries to Japan will have to be delayed up to two years. The U.S. does not have a credible option of returning to military confrontation in such conditions without sacrificing all its other interests: t.co/kkM6wvG9p7

It’s hard to overstate how deeply Netanyahu views this moment as a possible personal and political defeat. A U.S.–Iran agreement under Trump would be a major blow to him mainly diplomatically, but above all politically. For years, Netanyahu built his political identity around being “Mr. Iran,” the leader who insisted that only pressure, deterrence, and force could stop the Iranian regime. And now, after multiple rounds of operational successes but one resounding strategic failure, and after finally succeeding in drawing the United States into direct confrontation with Iran, he may be forced to accept an agreement that not only legitimizes the very regime he sought to weaken, but also exposes the collapse of his long-standing Iran doctrine. His approach was based on the belief that more pressure, more military power, and tighter coordination between Israel and the United States would eventually either force Iran into submission or destabilize the regime itself. Instead, the result has been a more radicalized, more resilient, and more dangerous Iran, one that even Washington now hesitates to confront militarily again. If this confrontation ends with an agreement, an even bigger strategic question emerges: what future American president would be willing to commit U.S. forces to another major Middle Eastern conflict after seeing the political and military costs of this one? Netanyahu had what may have been his greatest opportunity to prove his central strategic theory: that a close Israeli-American military partnership could fundamentally reshape Iran and perhaps even threaten the regime’s survival. By every indication, that assumption failed. Against this backdrop, reports of a tense conversation between Trump and Netanyahu become much easier to understand. They also help explain the extraordinary level of pressure now coming from Jerusalem, and the extent to which Netanyahu is trying to persuade, or pressure, the administration not to move toward a deal with Tehran. The bottom line is that a U.S.–Iran agreement would not only signal the failure of the military confrontation Netanyahu pushed for, but also the collapse of the broader strategic doctrine he has championed since entering Israeli politics, all on the eve of what could be the most critical election of his career. In that sense, the next Israel’s leadership need to learn the fundamental lessons of this war. More than ever, this conflict demonstrates the urgent need for Israel to develop a different long-term strategy for dealing with Iran and especially to understand the following: Israel’s confrontation with Iran will not bring normalization with the Arab world, nor will it resolve Israel’s most fundamental security challenges, first and foremost, the Palestinian issue. The belief that regime change in Iran would transform Israel’s position in the Middle East was always detached from reality. In fact, the consistent opposition of Gulf leaders and major Arab states to further escalation against Iran has demonstrated this repeatedly throughout the conflict. Israel will not be able to use the “Iran card” as a substitute for addressing the core political issues shaping the region. Anyone arguing that military confrontation with Iran alone can unlock normalization is mistaken and, more importantly, misleading others about the strategic reality of the Middle East. Because despite the undeniable tactical and operational achievements of the campaign, this failure may ultimately leave Israel facing a more dangerous strategic reality, one that has not fundamentally improved its position in the Middle East. #IranWar‌

Many gunshots were heard when we were at the White House. We were told to run into the press briefing room

The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that U.S. officials involved in the negotiations sent indirect messages to the Iranian side through intermediaries urging them to “ignore Trump’s tweets,” saying his public statements are “purely for domestic and media consumption” and that “his position at the negotiation table is completely different.” A source told Fars that Trump “has realized that Iran is not one to give concessions” and sends word through intermediaries that his statements “should not be paid attention to.”

BREAKING: President Trump says an agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated” and will be announced shortly. Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened under the agreement.

Washington Times: The United States and Iran will announce a peace agreement within 24 hours.

BREAKING: Tom Lee's Ethereum portfolio is now down $7,800,000,000

Breaking: The Trump administration is preparing for a fresh round of military strikes against Iran -CBS Some members of the U.S. military and intelligence community have cancelled their plans this weekend in anticipation of possible strikes

🚨 Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has resigned

Wow *TRADERS FULLY PRICE QUARTER-POINT FED HIKE BY END OF 2026

"On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world." From Robert Kagan, @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/international/…

Insane stat of the day: California almonds use roughly 3–5.5 million acre-feet of water per year, depending on methodology. That's ~4-7x more water than all data centers in North America used combined in 2025.

Kevin Warsh is facing the highest yields on 10-year Treasuries on his swearing-in date of any Fed chair going back to Alan Greenspan in August 1987.

Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority released a map Fujairah port, critical to UAE pipeline bypassing Hormuz, in the key zone Iran now controls 15% world’s oil and this will add 2% more Iran is seeking power, not a deal to return to prewar status quo

Kind of disturbing honestly. There’s something about God in math proofs so this is a weird moment. Having an AI model solve a famous problem feels way more monumental to me than anything else so far.

BREAKING: Turkey liquidated almost all of its US Treasury holdings in March after the Iran War began.

No one believes me when I say this, but the decline in reading is already having dire consequences for art & culture. The media you loved in your youth—shows, albums, films—was made by artists who were widely read. You will not have that quality of art in a post-literate world.