Ido Oren

@JustinTLogan @stephenwertheim Thanks for retrieving it!

@stephenwertheim Reminds me of my favorite letter-to-the-editor ever published in an academic journal:

This is actually a key insight into Trump's second-term foreign policy to date: Trump is picking unfair fights with countries weaker than the United States but more respectfully addressing large adversaries, namely China and Russia. The punch down doctrine.

@LizHurra Could it be that the slower rate of Iranian missile firings is deliberately designed to deplete Israeli interceptors faster than Iranian missiles?

Several factors that limited the previous IL/US-Iran war to just 12 days now carry less weight. The Israeli leadership would prefer this war to be long. Why? Decreased rate of Iranian missile fire at Israel: Compared to the 12 Day War, the daily rate of missiles fired at Israel is lower, meaning less material damage, fewer lives lost, and slower depletion of interceptor missiles (which were running low by the end of the previous conflict). The lower intensity also allowed the Israeli government to partially reopen the economy five days in, with further restrictions lifted today. All businesses near shelters can now operate. This limits the economic cost of prolonging the war. Larger bank of targets due to more ambitious goals: In the 12 Day War, the Israeli target set included only sites linked to the nuclear and missile programs. Israel completed this list and then sought to end the war. Some regime targets were hit on the 12th day to compel Iran to accept a ceasefire, but they were not struck otherwise. The current target set is much larger. Israel wants the war to continue until the Iranian regime is stripped of all military and repressive capabilities, creating optimal conditions for collapse. A senior IDF official told @mako_feed: Israel wants to destroy "every missile, tank, jet, artillery cannon and ship" of the Iranian Army and IRGC... "we have enough work for weeks, maybe even more." Targets linked to the regime's repressive apparatus include all IRGC, Thar Allah, Basij, police, and "Morality Police" bases and stations, plus alternative locations once those forces flee their headquarters. Any gathering of such forces (numbering in the hundreds of thousands) would also be a relevant target. Unclear cut-off point: In the 12 Day War, the goals were limited and the endpoint was clear. In this war, the regime's breaking point is unknown. Regime collapse is notoriously hard to predict. I suspect Israeli intelligence is seeing signs of destabilization (such as soldiers refusing orders, per information they provided to @TheEconomist), while other parts of the regime are holding. In such uncertainty, it is easy to believe that a few more days of strikes will bring the regime to its breaking point. This is a recipe for an attrition war (which is mostly one-sided in the case of Israel and Iran, but not Iran and its Arab neighbors). The U.S. factor: In the 12 Day War, Trump's pressure contributed to ending the war when it did. In this war, Trump's position appears unclear, with varying durations for the war mentioned. A senior IDF official noted last week that the initial target set was developed for two more weeks of strikes. He was rebuked by the Prime Minister's Office (per @Haaretz), as this seemed out of line with Trump's recent mention of a 4-5 week campaign. Bottom line: At minimum, the initial target set will likely be completed. If the U.S. maintains its demand for "unconditional surrender," the war could last considerably longer. Israel definitely won't be the one to pull the plug.

“Where are our leaders? Where are our institutions?” 🎥 From J Street President @JeremyBenAmi's conversation this week with @PeterBeinart: jeremybenami.substack.com/p/watch-peter-…

"Food is unaffordable. There is nothing": In Gaza, a third of the population has not eaten for multiple days in a row, according to the World Food Program. @rawanshaikh @IKershner @abubakrbashir4 nytimes.com/2025/07/24/wor…

🚨 Today, we’re launching a national initiative calling on our Jewish communal leaders and institutions to speak out about the urgency of ending the war, releasing all hostages and surging aid to Gaza. Take action. Silence is complicity: act.jstreet.org/sign/jewish-le…

The suffering and starvation unfolding in Gaza is unspeakable and indefensible.

🚨New statement from @NancyGEO in response to reports of the components of the Israeli Security Cabinet-approved plan for the full takeover of Gaza.

Howard Lutnick's Kids Will Run Cantor Fitzgerald youtu.be/60evE_xmEUI?si… via @YouTube American meritocracy in action!

State audit finds overall unnecessary spending under former UF President Ben Sasse alligator.org/article/2025/0…

No ceasefire in the West Bank, where settlers are terrorizing Palestinians, with backing from a government looking to perpetuate conflict and control

אני מגיש לכם 4 דקות של שפיות. תקשיבו לישראל פריי. אני עומד מאחורי כל מילה בסרטון. אלו הן שעות קריטיות ניתן להציל את ד"ר חוסאם אבו-סופייה. מפציר ומתחנן: הפיצו ותייגו

“If civilization is what counts, … the likelihood of violence between Ukrainians and Russians should be low. They are two Slavic, primarily Orthodox Peoples who have had close relationships with each other for centuries” (Sam Huntington, 1993).

@LeeMordechai אתה איש מצפון ומגדלור מוסרי. המאמר בהארץ ודאי יביא עליך קיתונות של שופכין, אבל ההסטוריה תשפוט אותך לחיוב. תודה!

9 וסוף/ עמודים 9-12

1/ אני היסטוריון ואזרח ישראלי. כבר שנה שאני כותב באופן ציבורי על המתרחש בעזה במהלך מלחמת חרבות ברזל, תוך איסוף ותיעוד אלפי ראיות ועשרות דו"חות כדי להבין את התמונה הגדולה שלא מועברת לנו, אזרחי ישראל.

🇺🇸: Israel is not deliberately preventing aid 🇮🇱 Media: Israeli soldiers prevented people from getting aid then set fire to it

Today, we are calling on the U.S. to stop the transfer of offensive weapons to Israel. For far too long, the U.S. government has refused to enforce its own laws, enabling Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government to act with impunity. Our statement: buff.ly/4fJ8iHr

Middle East latest: Human Rights Watch accuses Israel of war crimes in Gaza Strip - ABC News via @ABC - abcnews.go.com/International/…

Summary of @tomerpersico post: The IDF is systematically expelling the population of the Northern Gaza Strip, blocking humanitarian assistance. This prepares the ground for Jewish settlement. IDF soldiers must refuse to participate in ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.

The consensus surrounding this ethnic cleansing is shameful. If the process is not stopped immediately, hundreds of thousands of people will become refugees, entire communities will be wiped out, and the moral and legal stain of the crime will stick to and haunt all Israelis.

Israel is sliding toward ethnic cleansing, its soldiers are implementing the criminal policy of the messianic, Kahanistic right, while the Center and Center-Left opposition remains silent.

Summary of Haaretz’s editorial today, titled: “If it looks like ethnic cleansing.” In the past 3.5 weeks, Israel has blockaded the Northern Gaza Strip. Israel is blocking humanitarian assistance almost entirely, starving hundreds of thousands of people. Israel ordered residents