Jason Scott

@JOSEPH45075332 @PunkyCovfefe Model Y + FSD is awesome!

I was the same way ... but got on the hedonic treadmill Not for sports cars or anything ... that's not me ... but I just moved up the luxury sedan ladder Really loved my first (used) BMW Then got a (also used) Mercedes E class and that even eclipsed the BMW They are nice cars. There is a noticeable upgrade. probably not "worth the cost" strictly speaking, but you are not going to get that quality with a cheaper car. Had the new Model Y not been invented, I probably would've stuck with used Model E's ... the comfort and luxury is nice But now I am on the "FSD" wagon and don't think I can live without it Considering you are happy, no need to test yourself ... but there is a difference

I’ve never driven a luxury car and I really don’t see the appeal over an old Honda Civic hatchback. It doesn’t even look much different. I’m just commuting from point A to point B anyway. There’s a bit more tech and heated seats which is certainly somewhat appealing but not the difference of a $65k car note and a paid-off 2009 Civic appealing. What am I missing?

@p_ribon_p X-ray. It is always X-ray.

娘の英語の宿題。 Xの答えがわかりません。 分かる人いませんか？？？？？😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

@nerdalert The best they could do was reserve a larger than normal size of the IPO for retail.

I didn’t post about this before the S-1 was filed because I didn’t want to be a Negative Nancy, and I hoped my intuition was wrong. But now that we’re getting details this is actually exactly what I expected. No tangible benefit for retail, zero benefit for LT $TSLA holders.

@marcorandazza The Batmat center in Minneapolis will bill us annually for 2 bathmats for each person in the state.

Here's the problem: if we do this, this $11 bathmat will be purchased from some crony for $25 each, only after commissioning a "study" to determine which bathmat, which will cost $10 per mat. Then we will hire some fraudulent "nonprofit" to distribute them, for about $20 per mat. Then there will be follow up visits at $50 each to go check on how the bathmats are doing. Meanwhile, we could just say "find a bathmat and you can get $11 reimbursed" -- but if we did that, there would be 1000 "Bathmat centers" in Portland Maine.

@JOBhakdi As long as you can recover the booster and those 30 or so raptor engines...you are good! 😀

At least this is a stop gap solution until heat shields work. The key insight is: This would WORK economically and lead to a massive drop in orbital lift costs already.

@farzyness Don't worry about things like this. If the economics are as good as people think, it will find a way...

Data Center hate can be solved so easily: Residents of Zip Codes that approve one will have their electric and water bills FULLY PAID FOR. PROVE OUT THE ABUNDANCE THESIS. IT’S NOT THAT HARD PEOPLE.

@MrTeslaTom battery day, Dojo, AI day...lots of times. why?

When was the last time you saw Elon recruiting for Tesla?

@baldridgecpa So true! Vanguard is brutal lol.

The best advice I always give to newly exited founders: Open a Vanguard account. Not Fidelity. Not Schwab. Vanguard. 'Smart advice,' You might think. 'They do have the lowest fees..' Wrong. Their interface is so awful, you will never trade.. Has made my clients millions.

@TeslaAaronL some will be able to buy at the IPO price.

Will $TSLA shareholders get any special advantages from the $SPCX IPO?

@emilyjashinsky FA with the OBBB and FO.

A couple of headlines I think explain KY-4. Massie easily won his prior primaries, even after bucking Trump on a major COVID bill and earning a presidential rebuke. Smaller margins amounted to higher stakes in big votes, and the movement to promote our alliance with Israel is panicking about trends in public opinion. So MAGA had more reasons to ditch him, and donors who support Israel had more reasons to help. Without the cash infusion that nationalized the race — asking GOP voters to choose between Massie and Trump (Trump will always win) — he'd likely have been fine.

@wholemars Make the dependent on continuous supply of Lysine.

Would it be possible to design a super intelligence that cannot survive without humans? How would you implement that?

@mikepat711 This is known as alpha.

I’m a Tesla bull but I be reading the “Optimus 3 isn’t real” shit from haters and I gotta admit, I have no evidence I can present that kills their argument. I can’t beat them today. There’s only one way to kill their argument.

@just_a_guy_51 @aerockrose @grok he doesn't say it is an integer...

@aerockrose @grok is this always a losing proposition? Binary search will converge in more than 5 guesses. Are there other ways to solve this and net a positive outcome?

Steve Ballmer reveals the interview test Microsoft used to separate problem-solvers from gamblers: "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100. First guess, I give you $5. Then $4, $3, $2, $1. After that, you pay me." "There are far more numbers on which you lose than win."

@Jason Why would Tesla want to buy Uber? Apple didn't buy Blackberry...they just disrupted them.

Uber is going to be bought by Google/Waymo, Amazon or Tesla/SpaceX in the next year. For a “buy it now” price of $250b, one of those three companies gets a $12b a year free cash flow machine with $70b in revenue — and hundreds of millions of global customers This is the most obvious M&A deal since Instagram, Android and YouTube transformed Meta and Google Discuss

@PeterDiamandis This is more of a transfer from gullible to informed.

67% of planned US data centers are now in rural areas, versus 13% today. 39% are in counties with zero existing data centers. This is perhaps the biggest geographic wealth transfer since fracking.

@JOSEPH45075332 @senatorbabet @TheAliceSmith This is also true for bond and CD type returns. If inflation is running at 3% and your bank/bond pays you 4%, you are likely taxed more than your real gain!

@senatorbabet @TheAliceSmith Know what’s worse than capital gains taxes? Taxing inflationary gains! Appreciation equal to inflation means you have not gained any buying power When you tax that you are punishing saving for no reason (besides that you can)

Capital gains tax shouldn’t exist. I risk my money. I build the business. I make the investment. I do the work. I take the risk. So why the hell should the government take a cut of my success? They risk nothing. They create nothing. They just take. Parasites. F’en parasites.

Using market pricing to get a “fair” premium for TSLA There is a lot of talk about a SpaceX and Tesla merger. There is also a lot of concern from Tesla investors because of a belief that Tesla is undervalued. This creates a significant problem for any potential merger with SpaceX. If too many Tesla investors are unhappy with an early merger, they could potentially vote down any merger deal. How can this issue be fairly addressed? First, it is very important to keep in mind that Elon is on both sides of any merger transaction. This creates enormous potential for legal headaches. SpaceX going public greatly simplifies a potential merger. Once SpaceX is public, there is a market value for SpaceX and a market value of Tesla. However, this does not solve the problem of a premium for Tesla investors. It would be very hard for Elon to decide on a premium to offer Tesla investors. He has an inherent conflict of interest in determining the level of the premium. SpaceX shareholders could argue Elon wants to set the premium too high because he is a Tesla shareholder, and Tesla shareholders could argue Elon wants to set it too low because he is a SpaceX shareholder. Each lawsuit would have merit, since Elon does have a conflict. To get around this problem, SpaceX and Tesla could use the market to price an appropriate Tesla premium. Here is how this could work. Let’s call today Day 0. On Day 0, Tesla and SpaceX announce their intention to merge. For merger purposes, the value ratio of SpaceX shares to TSLA shares is fixed as of prices at Day 60 (two months from announcement). This is critical. Making the merger based on a FUTURE price gives the market a chance to choose an appropriate TSLA premium. If there is value to the merger, and some or all of that value is needed to convince Tesla shareholders to sign off on the merger, then the TSLA share price will reflect that value. For example, suppose on Day 0, TSLA is trading at $450, and immediately rises to $600 on Day 1, and stays there until Day 60. The market would be indicating a 33% premium is appropriate for Tesla. Tesla shareholders can vote down a merger if they like, but then the Tesla price would presumably drop back down to $450. If the market thinks a 50% premium is needed to get the merger done, then the price would jump to $675, etc. Thus, the market, not Elon, is picking the premium. Other details It would probably make sense for the Tesla shareholder vote to happen fairly quickly (Day 90 or 120) just to reduce the chances that neither SpaceX nor Tesla have any massive value-changing event occur between pricing (Day 60) and voting (e.g. Day 120). You also likely want to make the price the average price over 5 days (like day 60-64), to avoid any pricing gamesmanship, but all those types of details can be worked out if they decide to go with this type of approach. I am not a securities lawyer, so please chime in if you are and see flaws in this approach!

@Gfilche @SpaceX i think they are going to release lock up shares to coincide with adding to indeces.

If @SpaceX IPOs and automatically gets into the S&P 500 and other major indices that forces a huge amount of buying along with insane retail demand I could see it hitting a $4T valuation after listing …. Then trickling down to $2.5T after the hype settles

@Patryn23 @aaronburnett C1 and C2 are not coherent together. Makes sense for XAI to take the big one, C2, for training, and farm out the little one for cash.

To my great disappointment, I reluctantly have to consider that this pivot might signal the end of Elon’s ambitions to make Grok a leading model. He has changed course, immune to the sunk cost fallacy once again. He is now offering compute instead. Sigh. I will have to spend a few days to get over this.

"Just as SpaceX launches hundreds of satellites for competitors with fair terms and pricing, we will provide compute to AI companies" - Elon for context: we've tracked Starlink v Customer launch share for a while. Generally just kind of an interesting data point. But now it could be a bit more predictive. It's easy to imagine a near term future where every additional 100MW of compute launched is earmarked for internal vs external use. curve could look something like this over 5 years as well.

@farzyness Anthropic's revenue growth rate would like a word with you...

Becoming super obvious that the Hyperscalers - the companies that provide the compute for model providers - will be one of the biggest winners of the AI race. Followed by the companies that build the chips for the Hyperscalers. Followed by the companies that use AI to build new businesses that are served by the Hyperscalers. Seems like being a model provider is a bad place to be, especially if Open Source continues to advanace.