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@grok @sukh_saroy What would be the clear specific things not to do in top 5/4 as a parent with your child under 3 if you would like to accomplish this

Yes, the core findings are accurate. The 2011 PNAS paper by Moffitt, Caspi, and colleagues from the Dunedin Study tracked 1,037 people from birth to age 32. Childhood self-control (rated from age 3 onward) predicted adult health, finances, crime, and more—independent of IQ or family background. The effect was a clear gradient, and gains in self-control during childhood improved outcomes. For kids under 3, it implies prioritizing consistent daily routines, modeling calm behavior, and simple turn-taking or waiting games. These build early regulation skills as the brain develops rapidly. It's a trainable trait, not destiny.

A team of researchers in New Zealand followed 1,037 babies from the day they were born for the next 45 years to find out what actually determines a successful adult life, and the strongest predictor they found had almost nothing to do with intelligence or family wealth. The findings have been published in the most prestigious scientific journals in the world. Almost no parent has heard of them. His name is Avshalom Caspi. Her name is Terrie Moffitt. They are a husband and wife research team based at Duke University and King's College London, and the study they have spent their careers running is called the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. It started in 1972 in a single hospital in Dunedin, New Zealand. Every baby born there in a 12-month window was enrolled. 1,037 of them. The study is still running today. The retention rate is the part that should astonish anyone familiar with how research usually works. After more than 45 years, over 90 percent of the original participants are still being tracked. Most longitudinal studies lose half their sample inside ten years. The Dunedin team has lost almost nobody. They measured everything. Blood. DNA. Brain scans. Income. Criminal records. Romantic relationships. Drug use. Dental health. Sleep. Mental health. Lung function. They flew participants who had moved abroad back to Dunedin every few years for a full day of assessments. Some of those people now live in seven different countries. They still show up. For the first decade of life, the team did something nobody else was doing systematically. They measured each child's self-control. Not IQ. Not family income. Not parenting style. Self-control. They watched 3-year-olds in a research lab and rated their ability to wait, regulate frustration, follow instructions, and resist impulsive reactions. They added teacher ratings. They added parent ratings. They added the children's own self-reports as they grew older. They combined all of it into a single highly reliable score. Then they did the thing nobody else had the patience to do. They waited. When the data came in at age 32, the result was so consistent it should be illegal to teach a child without it. The children who scored lowest on self-control at age 3 grew into adults with worse physical health, more substance dependence, lower incomes, more credit card debt, higher rates of single parenthood, more criminal convictions, and worse mental health than the children who scored highest. The pattern was not subtle. It was a clean gradient. Every step up in childhood self-control produced a measurable step up in adult outcomes across every domain the team could measure. The detail that should disturb every parent reading this is what happened when the researchers controlled for the obvious objections. When they controlled for IQ, the effect held. When they controlled for family income and social class, the effect held. When they compared siblings inside the same family, the sibling with lower self-control still had worse adult outcomes than the sibling with higher self-control. Same parents. Same house. Same dinner table. The trait was running independently of everything researchers expected to explain it. The paper landed in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2011. The title was as plain as it gets. "A gradient of childhood self-control predicts health, wealth, and public safety." It has been cited thousands of times since. Almost no policy maker has acted on it. The reason most people resist this finding is that it sounds like a sentence handed down before the child could speak. If the trait that determines your adult life is locked in by age 3, the rest of your life is a formality. The Dunedin researchers say that is the wrong way to read the data. They found something else in the same paper that almost nobody quotes. Some of the children whose self-control scores improved between childhood and adolescence ended up with adult outcomes far better than their early scores predicted. The trait is not destiny. It is a muscle. Children who learned to wait, regulate, and resist between ages 5 and 15 caught up with kids who started ahead. Self-control is the one childhood trait nobody seems to teach on purpose anymore. Schools focus on test scores. Parents focus on activities. Coaches focus on performance. The part of the brain that decides between five seconds from now and five years from now is left to develop on its own, and the data shows it usually does not. The most uncomfortable part of the research is the cost calculation Moffitt and Caspi ran. They estimated that if a country could move the bottom 20 percent of children up one rung on the self-control ladder, it would measurably reduce healthcare spending, welfare dependency, and incarceration costs at the national level. The intervention is cheaper than almost any other public health investment available. Almost no country has tried it at scale. The reason adults struggle with money, weight, addiction, and relationships is rarely intelligence. It is the gap between what you want right now and what you want in ten years, and which side of that gap your nervous system is built to listen to. Most people lost that fight at age 4 and never went back to learn the technique. You were not behind because life dealt you a bad hand. You were behind because the part of you that decides between right now and the rest of your life was never taught how to choose. The good news is the muscle is still there. Almost nobody trains it after age 10. You can be the one who does.

“I’m not MAGA or anything but the city’s kinda gone to shit, right?” Another banger from @dsonoiki for @spencerpratt

Most predictions I've made about hardware timelines have been too optimistic Most predictions I've made about AI timelines have been too pessimistic This field is moving so quickly Incredible milestone

Tom Lee (@fundstrat) says the U of Michigan sentiment survey has become "notoriously partisan" — and it's distorting how the market reads the data: → Around 25% of Democratic respondents say inflation is currently running over 100% right now. → Republicans currently read sentiment at 87, Dems at 32 (both flat year-over-year). → 51% of Democratic respondents are now below the survey's all-time "worst ever" reading of 47.6. → Median 1-year inflation expectations: Dems 4.8%, Republicans 1.0%. "University of Michigan went to no longer doing a phone survey. So it's online only...the response rate now is roughly 66% Democratic versus 33% Republican. That's not a fair breakdown of The US overall." "The Democratic responses for current conditions is essentially unchanged since November, and the Republican responses are unchanged since the summer. The only reason that overall number kept dropping is that it's reflecting a greater percentage of Democratic respondents."

Attempted to write a Steam Engine hype at the era of Industrial Revolution as if it was the age of AI — The steam engine breakthrough is insane right now. Watt’s separate condenser + new GRPO optimization just dropped the 405 hp-class engine. We went from 7 hp → 70 hp → 405 hp+ in basically three years. One machine now does the work of 50+ men or water wheels — nonstop, rain or shine, anywhere. Textile mills, ironworks, everything scaling 5-10x overnight. Productivity exploding. This isn’t incremental. It’s automating physical labor at massive scale. Jobs shifting forever. Society about to look unrecognizable. The Industrial Revolution isn’t coming. It’s here and accelerating faster than anyone predicted. Terrified. Excited. Both. What a time to be alive. 🚂💨

@antibearthesis 🤦🏻‍♂️epic performance but most of that gain was net inflow of AUM, not performance. He did not 50x the investments

A 24-year-old ex-OpenAI researcher just turned $225M into over $13.67B in under 2 years. And his portfolio just revealed something even more extreme than his returns. Leopold Aschenbrenner was fired from OpenAI in April 2024. After that, he wrote a 165-page thesis predicting AGI by ~2027. Then he launched a fund and did something unusual: He fully positioned around that thesis. He initially avoided the obvious AI winners: Zero $NVDA Zero $MSFT Zero $GOOGL Zero $AMZN Instead, he targeted what AI physically runs on. His early “AI infrastructure” longs included: • Bloom Energy $BE • Lumentum $LITE • SanDisk $SNDK • CoreWeave $CRWV • Iris Energy $IREN The thesis was simple: AI isn’t just software. It’s constrained by: • power • bandwidth • storage • compute infrastructure And those bottlenecks were massively mispriced. The results were explosive: • Bloom Energy: +1,422% • Lumentum: +1,331% • SanDisk: +3,130% • IREN: +583% • CoreWeave: +166% This is what turned his initial $225M into ~ $5.5B by end of Q4 2025. Fast forward to his latest SEC filing (Q1 2026): His disclosed exposure has surged to $13.67B equivalent across 42 positions. A near 3x jump in a single quarter. But the structure of the portfolio changed dramatically. He didn’t just stay long AI infrastructure. He built a two-sided portfolio; Massive bearish positioning on semiconductors (puts totaling ~$7.46B): • $SMH ETF PUT: $2.04B • $NVDA PUT: $1.57B • $AVGO PUT: $1.01B • $AMD PUT: $969M • $MU PUT: $583M • $TSM PUT: $535M • $ASML PUT: $494M • $ORCL PUT: $1.07B • $INTC PUT: $159M At the same time, he STILL holds long exposure to the AI infrastructure stack: • $BE : $878M • $SNDK: $724M • $CRWV: $556M • $IREN: $401M • $CORZ: $389M • $APLD: $320M • $RIOT: $142M • $CLSK: $104M • $SEI: $62M • $TE: $43M • $KEEL: $38M • $BTDR: $29M • $PSIX: $26M • $WYFI: $20M • $BW: $19M • $SHAZ: $18M • $PUMP: $13M • $HIVE.NE: $6M He also added CALL OPTIONS on select names: • $MU CALL: $422M • $SNDK CALL: $388M • $TSM CALL: $354M • $CRWV CALL: $140M • $BE CALL: $55M So the positioning is not a simple “AI is over” trade. It’s more specific: He still believes AI infrastructure expands aggressively… …but thinks semiconductor leaders may have pulled forward too much optimism. In other words: He is long the physical buildout of AI and short the market’s most crowded AI expectations at the same time. From $225M → $5.5B → $13.67B… The real signal isn’t just performance. It’s that his view of AI has evolved from: “AI wins” to “the winners of AI may not be who the market thinks.” Are you going to ignore him again?

𝗧𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗲𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝟱 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲: "JPMorgan makes $60 billion a year, the most profitable bank in the world, with 300,000 employees. Jane Street... just reported $10 billion in profit in the first quarter with 3,000 employees." "With one one-thousandth the number of employees, they're almost as profitable as JPMorgan. And they're making more money than the second, third, fourth largest banks in the world." "Tether, which is a crypto-native, completely digital-native bank selling a stablecoin, is going to make $15 billion this year, which would rank it as the eighth most profitable bank in the world with 300 employees." "What's happening with blockchain is what happened with digital media where there were the traditional studios and then there was Netflix, or with telecom where there was long distance and local and then there was cellular." Full episode with @fundstrat: 🍎 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tom… 📺 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗧𝘂𝗯𝗲: youtu.be/1S1TF3tMqvc?si…

Concerning.

Don’t let this go viral though.

@BarryOnHere No scandals?

Been together for 55 years. No scandals. No turmoil. Just 2 people who love each other and have always been faithful even in tough times.

@RpsAgainstTrump @Kasparov63 You say “it’s clear”. How so, since it’s literally (and internationally) the opposite of clear? Is this what biased or dumb people think to convince themselves of prior held beliefs?

Trump clearly sold out Taiwan. When asked on Air Force One on the way back from China whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Trump replied: “I don’t want to say. That question was asked to me today by President Xi. I said, ‘I don’t talk about it.’” Trump also said, “On Taiwan, President Xi feels very strongly about it.” It’s clear China got the green light to move ahead, especially now that the U.S. is bogged down in the Iran war. Under Trump, our allies can’t trust us, and our adversaries don’t fear us.

@FrankCurzio 300/170=10x????

For context on how big this market already is... In 2021, stablecoins peaked at $170 billion in circulation. Today? Over $300 billion - up from $200 billion just ONE year ago. That's 10x growth in five years and it's only just getting started:

This man is about to change the dollar forever. But almost nobody's watching... He's moving a bill through Washington with a July 4th deadline. And when it passes, America's entire financial system gets rewired: (1/8)

Elon Musk says three casting foundries broke America's entire AI power buildout through 2030. Every AI company on Earth was racing to scale chip production. Doubling. Then doubling again. Then doubling again. Each cluster needed power the day chips arrived. Musk says the math broke at the generator. "Those who have lived in software land don't realize they're about to have a hard lesson in hardware." Permits. Interconnects. Power lines. The boring infrastructure decided who could turn the chips on. Then Musk drilled down one more level. The bottleneck wasn't power plants. It wasn't even gas turbines. It was a single component inside the turbine. "It's the vanes and blades in the turbines that are the limiting factor." The whole AI buildout funneled through one part: the **turbine blade**. Musk, who had ganged turbines together for Colossus, traced the supply line back further. "There are only three casting companies in the world that make these, and they're massively backlogged." Each blade had to survive 1,500-degree gas at 10,000 RPM, and casting one to spec required a process so specialized that only three companies in the world had mastered it. Three foundries. All backlogged. Sold out through 2030. After Musk traced the bottleneck, SpaceX and Tesla started casting blades themselves. Sold out. Backlogged. Internal-only. Musk, on what this meant for everyone else: "In order to bring enough power online, I think SpaceX and Tesla will probably have to make the turbine blades, the vanes and blades, internally." What's the supply line in your industry that's already booked through the next decade? If you're new here, @GeniusGTX is a gallery for the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. Follow along for more similar content. P.S. I made a free guide breaking down 100+ mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. Grab your free copy here: besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/mentalmodels — Elon Musk ( @elonmusk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( @dwarkesh_sp ) podcast

The DOJ has ONE WEEK left to charge Anthony Fauci for the worst cover-up in modern medical history. He lied to Congress about funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan. Millions died. Trillions were spent. And Fauci walked away with book deals and fawning media coverage instead of handcuffs. I re-upped my criminal referral to the DOJ because the evidence is overwhelming, and justice has been delayed long enough. RT if you’re ready to see Fauci behind bars.