Neutral

$NMM Two weeks ago, I spent several days meeting with both listed and non-listed shipping companies in Greece. It’s encouraging to see that, overall, shipping owners are now more disciplined than before and are not rushing to order vessels on spec. However, we all understand human nature, and I believe everyone will become greedy at some point. Balance sheets look very good, and rates are excellent, so I think the only reason for the delay in placing more orders is that you have to wait until late 2028 or 29 to take delivery of newbuildings. Although I’ve been following NMM since 2016 and regularly meet with them—usually with a team lead by the COO—the meeting with Angeliki was particularly surprising. She presented a compelling investment case, emphasizing the company's resilience and predictability. She also highlighted that she automatically buys shares in the market every day to remain fully compliant and avoid interfering with the ongoing buyback program. By increasing her stake, she aligns completely with the minority shareholders. It's important to note that she is purchasing shares in the market similar to us, unlike other companies that offer large stock-based compensation, which significantly dilutes minority shareholders. Navios's true strength will be revealed not during good times, but when the market suddenly shifts. NMM has a robust backlog that ensures the company's safety even in a major crisis, as its contract revenues more than cover all cash expenses. However, the backlog alone isn't enough, as it diminishes over time; the key factors are the young fleet and diversification. A 5-year-old vessel is 30% more efficient than a 10-year-old one. Technological advancements have greatly improved efficiency, which is less noticeable in good times but critical during downturns. Diversification allows better management of investments and strategies, especially as drybulk and tankers are rarely impacted simultaneously. She assesses risks carefully, especially in good times. While Navios must continually renew its fleet, current vessel prices are high, so they secure long-term charters that greatly reduce residual value risk. This makes the investment either good or excellent, depending on future market conditions, but never poor. Shipping is fundamentally about risk mitigation. For example, Navios has five vessels in the Hormuz area paid through time charters. She noted that even if a counterparty tries to reduce payments due to force majeure or if a vessel is attacked, trapped, or abandoned for a year, insurance coverage ensures they are fully compensated for any lost revenue and the vessel's value. She also showed us the Navios' technological capabilities. Starlink provides them with increased data access and supports their smartship tool, enhancing efficiency and profitability. Finally, we discussed the three segments. We both agree that Containers are the most vulnerable, especially in the event of a global crisis. However, the low activity in the Red Sea and NMM's long-term order book in this segment makes them quite secure. Additionally, she emphasized that NMM is not focused on the largest sizes (>10k TEU), which are crucial for liners and have a massive orderbook. Therefore, NMM's container segment is likely more resilient than the typical container segment. On the other hand, tankers and bulkers look very positive. Hormuz traffic will take some time to return to normal due to damage and the 70 vessels trapped, which limit activity. However, when the hub reopens, we’re likely to see a rate squeeze, with NMM having some vessels ready to seize any opportunities. Additionally, there’s a high chance that the USA and Russia will reach an agreement, leading to the dark fleet's disappearance. The dark fleet is now blacklisted and will likely be scrapped, similar to the Venezuelan vessels that were seized. Tanker rates are at all-time highs, and tanker equities are also trading well above NAV, though Navios remains deeply undervalued at around 0.45 NAV. Does that make sense? Lastly, drybulk shipping remains very robust. The ME conflict is boosting gas-to-coal switching and highlighting coal's continued importance for many economies. She speculated that countries may begin building strategic coal reserves in the future. Demand for iron and bauxite remains strong, especially given the aging fleet and the minimal orderbook. The outlook for this segment is excellent, and Navios charters are positioned to benefit from rate spikes, particularly on capesize vessels. In the first four months of 2026, Capes averaged $28,000/day, up from $18,000/day last year, more than doubling their earnings. Term charter activity is rising, with 3-year charters near $30,000/day, compared to the $27,000/day average on the spot market over the past five years. Navios has performed well in recent years, but I believe it is still significantly undervalued on both a relative and an absolute basis. I also anticipate that contracted revenue in 2026 will surpass that of 2025, as Navios is seizing opportunities to secure very favorable charters. While many shipping segments may be near the peak of the cycle, I argue that Navios still has considerable upside with limited downside risk. This is why it remains my sole exposure to equity shipping companies at this time. We also own a significant position in Navios bonds.

Listen to me. This is your FINAL warning. This is what will happen. The next cycle is May 25th - June 5th. 1. Trim your winners. Don't sell fully. Take minimum ~20% of your profits and rotate into defense. Or hedge with oil stocks, gold, cash, or puts. 2. AI will keep going up in the future, we're still very early. But $SPY will START its dip of -5% to -10%. 3. This will turn into -20% - 50% dip on high volatility stocks. Why will this happen? 1. It's a natural "breather" before we go up again (3 months of rest). We're too HOT. 2. No more earnings catalyst - we will have a period of LIMBO from June to August. 3. S&P 500 is stretched 15% away from its moving average. This is historically the time to trim. Future forecast? 1. Buy the BIG dip. Markets are still bullish and will continue to go up. What to do? 1. Balanced with AI, international exposure (Japan, Brazil, etc.), precious metals/miners (gold and silver miners), stable compounder companies, cash, and puts. Follow my every move or else you'll lose everything. I've already started to rotate, and I will more.

Listen to me. This is your FINAL warning. This is what will happen. The next cycle is May 25th - June 5th. 1. Trim your winners. Don't sell fully. Take minimum ~20% of your profits and rotate into defense. Or hedge with oil stocks, gold, cash, or puts. 2. AI will keep going up in the future, we're still very early. But $SPY will START its dip of -5% to -10%. 3. This will turn into -20% - 50% dip on high volatility stocks. Why will this happen? 1. It's a natural "breather" before we go up again (3 months of rest). We're too HOT. 2. No more earnings catalyst - we will have a period of LIMBO from June to August. 3. S&P 500 is stretched 15% away from its moving average. This is historically the time to trim. Future forecast? 1. Buy the BIG dip. Markets are still bullish and will continue to go up. What to do? 1. Balanced with AI, international exposure (Japan, Brazil, etc.), precious metals/miners (gold and silver miners), stable compounder companies, cash, and puts. Follow my every move or else you'll lose everything. I've already started to rotate, and I will more.

My secret gem $HYLN is making new YTD highs today Most of you may remember this from the SPAC bubble and how they were making CNG trucks. Not anymore, the stories different now. They ditched the trucks and focused entirely on building the engines that will help power this buildout (generators) among other applications. Years of R&D later, and they are about to reach commercialization in one of the biggest power/grid buildouts ever recorded in history. They have multiple advanced contracts with the Navy and Army for their KARNO linear compressor. They have been awarded mission critical readiness status multiple times so you know this product is REAL. It delivers fantastic efficiency for all applications involving power generation. Do not sleep on this company because of their history. The thesis has very much changed since then. (Full transparency I own 1250 shares at a 1.28 cost basis. NFA!)