Kmadd

📊 MARKET: There are now 12X more shorts than there are longs. What does that tell you?

The thing where ai uses ai generated content as source material and things get dicey fast is already happening. Asked about a stock and it's pulling from substacks and other sources clearly created by AI. The result is an buzzword soup that both painful and difficult to read: "a directional tailwind rather than a core causal thesis" "capex thaw" "touchpoint" "narrative accelerant" "convexity" "picks-and-shovels" "margin/stickiness story" This actually seems to be worse with Opus 4.8.

Going to start trimming and capturing some profits after multiple +100% weeks. Will likely start filling 13Fs soon, I gotta clean things up a bit. In particular Space sector holdings are up an eye watering amount and I was strongly leveraged in this sector going in. I want to gradually scale out into $SPCX IPO on some of it. $RKLB and $ASTS are by far my largest positions and I don't plan on that changing. Trimmed: $DRAM - China entering the game sooner than I expected, will start to gradually scale out. $FLY - captured from $20 to ~$50, will leave a little bit into the $SPCX IPO $RDW - trimming half after $9 to $18. Cool projects and engineering, terrible management track record and margins/dilution. Some early signs of a turn around in Q1. Market cap is now basically double prior ATH. Will continue to scale out into the $20's/$SPCX IPO then watch to see if they are evolving into something I can hold long-term. $ASTI - going to start scaling down gradually. Size is too big (started at just under 5% of company at $2) and I need to see more concrete progress rather than seemingly empty statements. $BKSY - up over 600%, size is too big now/taking some profits. $VELO - traded this for ~500%+, going to trim from $20-$30 range into IPO. Very interested in their decentralized manufacturing move recently. $OUST - held for over a year so going to trim LTCG positions a little into the $40's. Interesting general robotics play long term but they need to shrink things down much further to be viable for the humanoids. $TE - trimmed around $9, been in since ~$2 with big size so it got too big relative to the weight I want it at now. Also will be taking profits/closing on $VOYG, $PL. Going to keep $BE, $LUNR, $OSS, $WOLF, $NVTS, $IFX, $PENG, $ALAB, $INFQ, $NBIS, $JOBY, $QS, $BAER. Sorry for the ticker spam, but hopefully now people will stop asking. Not financial advice. Holdings could change any moment. These aren't all of my positions (don't want to get doxxed with 13F).

Up 15% on $MRLN already, let’s see that short squeeze tm!

Going to start trimming and capturing some profits after multiple +100% weeks. Will likely start filling 13Fs soon, I gotta clean things up a bit. In particular Space sector holdings are up an eye watering amount and I was strongly leveraged in this sector going in. I want to gradually scale out into $SPCX IPO on some of it. $RKLB and $ASTS are by far my largest positions and I don't plan on that changing. Trimmed: $DRAM - China entering the game sooner than I expected, will start to gradually scale out. $FLY - captured from $20 to ~$50, will leave a little bit into the $SPCX IPO $RDW - trimming half after $9 to $18. Cool projects and engineering, terrible management track record and margins/dilution. Some early signs of a turn around in Q1. Market cap is now basically double prior ATH. Will continue to scale out into the $20's/$SPCX IPO then watch to see if they are evolving into something I can hold long-term. $ASTI - going to start scaling down gradually. Size is too big (started at just under 5% of company at $2) and I need to see more concrete progress rather than seemingly empty statements. $BKSY - up over 600%, size is too big now/taking some profits. $VELO - traded this for ~500%+, going to trim from $20-$30 range into IPO. Very interested in their decentralized manufacturing move recently. $OUST - held for over a year so going to trim LTCG positions a little into the $40's. Interesting general robotics play long term but they need to shrink things down much further to be viable for the humanoids. $TE - trimmed around $9, been in since ~$2 with big size so it got too big relative to the weight I want it at now. Also will be taking profits/closing on $VOYG, $PL. Going to keep $BE, $LUNR, $OSS, $WOLF, $NVTS, $IFX, $PENG, $ALAB, $INFQ, $NBIS, $JOBY, $QS, $BAER. Sorry for the ticker spam, but hopefully now people will stop asking. Not financial advice. Holdings could change any moment. These aren't all of my positions (don't want to get doxxed with 13F).

$3.2Bn cap, under 8x sales for the chip that runs the eyes of every robot and self-driving car. The crowd pays up for $NVDA to train the AI brain; almost no one buys the edge vision chip that lets the machine actually see (the difference between studying for the test and taking it live). That's the chokepoint: edge vision SoCs (low-power chips that read a camera feed right on the device, like a brain inside a doorbell) are brutal to build at spec, and $AMBA is the pure-play. The May 28 Hanwha deal runs $800M+ over a decade. 64x forward earnings looks rich until revenue inflects off a $100M quarter. I add more under $60. Where I'm wrong: if vision folds into the big SoCs and $AMBA's design wins never compound.