LakeMacro

@BickerinBrattle Trump: May be a joint US-Iran venture for Hormuz tolls - ABC

What about the toll to cross Hormuz stays for good and both Iran AND the US (alongside some Gulf states) share the proceeds? Trump sugarcoats it as "reconstruction fee", allows Saudi, UAE, Qatar etc to partake as a "thanks for playing" and to keep them on his side. Nato allies, SK, Japan etc don't get anything - they will have to pay the toll actually - as they weren't collaborative. By doing that, the U.S. : 1) co - manage the Strait ("cannot trust Iran to do that on its own") 2) get some revenues (range of estimates is huge but something in the region of $30-50 bio seems realistic) partially offsetting the hit coming from SCOTUS striking down IEEPA tariffs

The only route open to Trump is to continue until ripe casting Iran as a non human other and then intense carpet bombing a la Lemay and eliminate any threat for Hormuz then large USN convoys running the Strait then repeat.

Long Eurchf one of the best risk/rewards out there

@KrakenStockRes @DeItaone Ty, much appreciated

@LakeMacro @DeItaone axios.com/2026/02/18/ira…

U.S. ON BRINK OF WAR WITH IRAN The Trump administration is moving closer to a large-scale conflict with Iran, with officials warning strikes could come within weeks. Donald Trump has combined stalled nuclear talks with a major U.S. military buildup in the region, including aircraft carriers, warships and hundreds of fighter jets. A potential operation would likely be broader and longer than recent limited strikes elsewhere. Advisers including Jared Kushner recently met Iran’s foreign minister, but gaps remain. Vice President JD Vance signaled diplomacy may soon run its course. With no breakthrough in sight and forces in place, the risk of imminent military action is rising.

@MichaelAArouet It’s not same culture. French/Savoyard, Austria, Papal State, Arab, Norman, Greek, Spanish

@BickerinBrattle does the prospect of growing fiscal impulse over the coming quarters change your thesis at all? (chart is courtesy of GS)

this should and will be in a TMF post but sending this in rough form now to yourself as you have been complimentary and attentive love your feedback especially if critical still rather alone in this though more folks coming around. my short is still long JPM and SPX OTM put

something is going on that is unprecedented - the wake of this can be seen in the monetary impulse (the flow (not stock) of total system bank loans and leases. the shadow bank - just an educated guess - likely doubles this in terms of flow

@BickerinBrattle Don’t forget ft.com/content/8c953f…

making good money today why is market down? Trump base coming unglued - internal revolt MTG Trump acting more looney than usual - which is something Epstein still AI coming undone concern over the core non tech econ SP500 overvalued opinion stated different sources crypto

@dampedspring x.com/spencerhakimia…

All these guys are motherfucking panicked. This 2000 can not be legislated so is fake news

@dampedspring You mean because it cannot be enacted through an executive order ?

@dampedspring @RealJimChanos @DanielSimonyi Little better, thank you and noted

@LakeMacro @RealJimChanos Is this better? We built it ourselves. @DanielSimonyi who runs DSData for damped spring builds this for Damped Spring and for clients

We did this ROIC/IRR/MOIC analysis of the $IREN deal with $MSFT, being as generous to IREN as possible. We used 5-yr life for the GPU’s, with 20% residual value. And only considered the supercluster/acceleration costs for the DC buildout at Childress.

@dampedspring @RealJimChanos Cannot read chart - what’s the bbg function pls if you don’t mind me asking

@RealJimChanos You watching credit markets? Credit spreads on all the debt to finance the stuff acting like they can't swallow all this debt. Spreads bear steepening over the last week as the debt comes to market.

@BickerinBrattle wonder how long before markets start to look through this dissimulation. Tx

@LakeMacro typical mania. and Trump dissembles as well as his cabinet are silenced or sycophants. same with Fef

This econ is completely dependent on capx for large data centers. And that capital comes into the economy as very low transactional money with no effect on NGDP. Everything else indicates a recession.

@BickerinBrattle Very possible. Tx

@LakeMacro what would be Trump's response to SCOTUS shutting him down and ending the drive to unitary executive? methinks he will flail (Jan 6 style) and this response is what crashes markets

Not good for Trump - Supreme Court getting set to rule not leaving any debate. The unitary executive will be struck down - otherwise this stay would have been granted. all use of Executive Orders to be struck down. use of national guard to police cities ends all tariffs will cease and refund process start - will be 400 billion by then likely.

Risk assets : us stocks etc . Playing devils advocate here as valuations are stretched and the impact of Trump in terms of tariffs/fiscal is being ignored, as per your analysis. But could SCOTUS be the hope markets are leaning on to defy gravity ? Also, PE stocks decoupling (downward) from the broader indices - what you make of that ? Thanks as always for your thought provoking posts

@LakeMacro who's risk?

@dampedspring Running 50pc cash on clients’ money is a massive risk to take - what makes your convinction so high (for full transparency, I don’t disagree with your view but keen to hear your rationale, especially in relation to timing) - tvm

Got out of some gold, equity and bonds yesterday raising cash to my maximum amount of 50% which is a clearly cautious allocation Haven't done a single 3 month horizon "alpha trade" which are leaning toward shorting the long end, shorting gold and shorting equities and adding stir longs as hedge to a super dovish Trump Fed yet Mostly none of my levels are near execution prices. So patient.

Tx - Finding it v difficult to have conviction about the markets reaction function to that type of development. However, I think the awakening is more likely to stem by something which exposes the Emperor’s new clothes - either directly or in terms of its adverse ramifications on the credibility of the US institutional framework and/or the economy - than by something that may restore (some resemblance of) credibility of the institutional support itself. Interesting times ahead.

@LakeMacro over shadowing all of the points is the Trump response. I suggest he does Jan 6 10X as if any of this happens and hits the market and he does nothing Dems win 2026 and he is impeached and his kids go to jail - perhaps him

would add to put position if I had more money. a spectacular drop ahead. heck. might be early but timing impossible but for proximity. have never experienced such a callow arrogant context. tariffs are largest and most sudden tax raise ever imposed on US corporates.