Raj Anand

@aj_inapi @grok, explain me what’s happening

Dear Albanese, WTF are you doing? We are just north of Australia. Starmer doing this in the UK did not bother me because we're thousands of miles apart. But you, the Australian Prime Minister, with big influence on PNG. What the hell is going on?

@acllc2 Thanks for clarifying. Helpful.

@MacroRage that's just how it was "given up" and entered in Clearport (traded off exchange, but needs to be reported with GMI accts), not necessarily the aggressor's side

10:53 ET 10.1k ZNM6 seller @ 111'245, 2.9k UBM6 buyer @ 117'06 - "NOL" bear flattener. 1pm 30yr auction

@Merridew__ GS suggests some oil is flowing through SoH, at least more than last week.

@Barchart World is at highest level of uncertainty while the market implied measure of uncertainty is at 5 year lows. MOVE Index - For Rates

BREAKING 🚨: The World The World reaches highest level of uncertainty in history, surpassing Covid, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble 👻🤯👀

What in the world is going on with Charles Schwab $SCHW? Does anyone know? I don't see any news. Now seeing Morgan Stanley $MS and Interactive Brokers $IBKR also coming under pressure intra-day.

@Merridew__ New Fed Chair starting in June, making market concerned on Fed Independence. Market thinks he is Balance-Sheet hawk but the condition to be selected is known to all. My only concern, is this thesis playing out before June. So think maybe May/Oct may be better.

@aRishisays @EddBolingbroke Agree. As vol gets lower, seller will have to sell more to collect same amount of premium. 10Y yield needs to break out of 4.10% - 4.20 % range.

@0xMerridew Just checked the screen, you can do Nov 65 / 75 call spread for $1.97.

@ColdmanSax All of the above names have already multiplied. Only TUNG.CN so far looks relatively reasonable.

Agreed. Zero US production and a market 80%+ dominated by China. Big defense applications. I don’t have strong views on the group, but have $AII.AX, $FWZ.V, and $TUNG.CN on my watchlist.

@BlueLineFutures From ADP report. ADP also noted they made a methodology change benchmarking to the latest QCEW data - If they had not made that update, ADP would have printed +11k, so 43k more jobs added in Sep (so 43k difference).

Bleak ADP data showed significant downward revisions to prior month figures and a big miss for September.

@conksresearch I agree. 5s20s curve close to 4 year high while the long end realizing so low and vols at lows. Does not make sense. Need to flatten.

maybe the steepener has steepened too much and needs to unsteepen

@crossbordercap @FT While the 2Y to 10Y yields are down, the 30Y yields are up. The curve has twist-steepened (short term yield down, while long term yields are up). See images for change in 30Y yield and 5s20s yield curve.

Strange yields are down on my screen? And, steeper yield curve normally a bullish sign?? Does @FT have a pink agenda

@jrex035 @KobeissiLetter The basket history does not go that far, unfortunately. And most of the constituents are new companies. It's "Unprofitable Tech".

@MacroRage @KobeissiLetter This is distorted by Covid, I'm more curious what this measure looked like during the Dot Com bubble

Non-profitable stocks are surging: Goldman Sachs’ Non‑Profitable Tech Index has surged ~66% since its April low. This gauge tracks high-growth tech names with negative earnings. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen +31% over the same period, or less than half as much. This has been one of the sharpest rebounds in the history of unprofitable tech after a ~33% drop between February and April. To put this into perspective, in 2020, the index soared over 300% before wiping out all its gains during the 2022 bear market. Investors are piling back into speculative growth stocks.

I think it's more because of the positioning. After the last NFP revisions, which took the 3M moving average from ~140k/m to less than ~40k/m, the expectation going into the CPI was pretty bearish. Market was concerned about strong tariff-pass through, which didn't materialize. Core goods was expected to be anywhere between 26bps to 32 bps and it came lower. So the while the number as a whole was still strong, as you correctly pointed out, it was not as concerning as the market expected. Hence the rally. After the CPI is out, FED is now pricing around touch higher than 25 bps cut for September meeting.

Markets had a dovish reaction to yesterday's CPI. Cuts priced for the Fed in 2025 rose from 63 bps before the print to 70 bps now. This reaction stems from items heavily hit by tariffs, where inflation slowed. But it's the wrong take. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/us-inflation…

@Barchart Given the spot price, is this recommendation a buy or a sell? Lol.

@conksresearch Is this responsible for sharp downtick post Retail Sales today?

why now, some would ask

A number of assumption goes in coming up with Debt Borrowing. For example, for this number, Treasury assumed debt-ceiling resolution. Going into the announcement, the street estimate was also very wide. Treasury forecasted number for borrowing was $123 Billion while GS had $ 750 billion with $850 quarter end cash. Overall, a non-event.

US Treasury Unexpectedly Reports Sharp Drop In Debt Borrowing Needs, Rates Slilde zerohedge.com/markets/us-tre…

A new Brooking's research studied Hedge Funds' role in Treasury market and suggests that the Federal Reserve, in periods of extreme stress, be prepared to take over the hedge funds’ positions. As before, the Fed could stand ready to purchase Treasury securities but it would also, as the hedge funds do, take offsetting short positions in derivatives. brookings.edu/articles/treas…