Max Groucho

@respeculator spoke with someone who deals with treasury and ATO, this is likely to be fixed — ie real losses likely to be offset

This is the key issue below in the CGT changes IMO - it's not just that the 50% CGT discount is removed and ur left with 47% cap gains tax.. it's that the gains you get to index with inflation whereas the losses you don't... Inflation erosion on the CGT plus bracket creep and inflation erosion cos they keep the progressive tax brackets the same or indexed below true inflation... is stealth theft

@CRUDEOIL231 @acemoney21 given this view back in April, curious what your take is on why it didn’t play out end of April, and what your latest estimate is?

@acemoney21 Yeah, at the very latest end of April. And that’s even accounting for the SPR.

I actually wrote this back on March 18th to explain things to my Korean friends, but I'm posting it here on X as well since so many ppl still seem to get it wrong. Global Total Crude Inventory = Commercial MOI + Commercial Available Inventory + Surplus crude + SPR The world looks like it’s overflowing with oil, but prices don’t wait for all 2 billion barrels of global inventory to vanish before they spike. Every single time oil crossed $100/bbl, it was the same story. Take the US as the prime example. Right now, US commercial crude inventory is sitting around 440 million barrels, but that number physically cannot drop below 280–300 million. You might say, "What the hell are you talking about? Just draw it down, you idiot lol." But let’s look a bit closer. That "Commercial MOI" I mentioned stands for Minimum Operating Inventory. This isn't oil sitting in a refinery tank or a hub ready to be used instantly. MOI is the volume physically locked in the system you cannot pull out. It’s the baseline required just to keep the entire US oil system running. Here are the main components: 1) Linefill: This is the oil filling the entire pipeline network across the US. bc of the "push from one end to get out the other" structure, about 110–120 million barrels must stay in the pipes at all times. 2) Tank Bottoms: This is the volume at the very bottom of storage tanks that pumps literally can’t reach. Estimated at around 80–90 million barrels. 3) In-transit & Working Stock: The minimum volume sitting on tankers, barges, or waiting at refineries to be blended and fed into the units. Without this base feed, the refinery simply stops. Just combining Linefill and Tank Bottoms (Unavailable Stocks) gives you ~200 million barrels. Add the Working Stock needed for operational flexibility, and ~300 million barrels becomes the actual hard floor. I used the US as an example, but you probably get the point by now. The "Global Total Onshore Inventory" figure includes all that MOI—Linefill, Tank Bottoms, etc. Since it’s global, we don't have the exact numbers, but this MOI accounts for 60-70% of the total figure. Minimum Working Stock is another 20-25%. Most of those 2.3 billion barrels are scattered across tens of thousands of kilometers of pipelines and the bottoms of thousands of storage tanks. The vast majority is essential just to keep the system alive; it’s physically impossible to gather it all in one place and dump it onto the market. Therefore the actual available crude—the delta actually moves prices and balances—is much smaller than ppl think. That’s why the oil market sees massive price swings even over a quarterly shift of just 1mb/d. Think of the "buffer" I mentioned as cash on hand for immediate liquidity. The rest of those 2.3 billion barrels? That’s like your factory equipment. No matter how much equipment you have, if you run out of cash, you go bankrupt. The oil market is the same; once that tiny sliver of available crude vanishes, the system hits a crisis and faces desperate bidding. Right now, we are in the phase of burning through the "excess cash" in the corporate account. And we're doing it very fast. Next we'll start dipping into personal savings. But like most business owners, there isn't actually much cash in the personal account. It’ll run dry in no time. Now imagine if you knew as long as you kept the factory running, you could eventually pay off the debt and fix the cash flow—but right now you don’t have a single cent of available cash. What happens? To keep the factory from going under, you’d do anything to scrape together cash for the electric bill and payroll. You’d sell your kid’s iPhone or even put your wife on the street—you’d do anything desperate to get that cash. Once we hit that stage, prices go absolutely vertical. Bottom line: when the buffer is gone, you have to start withdrawing all available commercial inventory. The pace will be lightning fast. Even the ppl who were sitting on the sidelines hoping for the war to end will start bidding desperately bc they need oil 'right now'. I’m not just acting calm or pretending I’m okay with this taking a long time. Even if you believe a long position is the way to go, there’s a specific process and setup must be cleared for the environment to force prices up. And it won't take that long. Until then I expect vol to be absolutely violent in both directions. #oott #com

You're right, this is horrifying. We need more Asians in the NBA. Blacks make up 80% of the NBA but Asians only make up 0.8%. That means for every 1 Asian player, there are 100 black players. This is discrimination. Let's even the numbers out! #StopAsianHate

@tax_oz @clairlemon 30% corporate tax on 180k gets 54k…you get 27k how?

@MaxGroucho1 @clairlemon They are pretty simple and straightforward

The CGT changes on small business / start-ups are abysmal--but nipping this in the bud is fair enough. x.com/NoelWhittaker/…

@tax_oz @clairlemon what? can’t make sense of your numbers.

Why? If I ran this activity through a company and pay it out to those 3 as shareholders I pay net $27k of tax. If I run it through a trust I pay net $27k of tax. If I pay them $60k each as wages I pay net $27k of tax. Under the changes I double the tax via a trust and everything else stays the same. Why is this a good thing Claire?

@_mumbling_me @bowtiedstocks effective tax rate on taxable income of $45k is 8.3%, and on $135k its 22.8%, but minimum tax at 30% in trust now…

@MaxGroucho1 @bowtiedstocks Could u elaborate? E.g. how would it work in this scenario: trust distributions to A=$45K and B=$135K. How much is it going to affect A vs B?

I’m discovering that a lot of people in my circle have had discretionary trusts and bucket companies in place This taxation of trusts budget measure will prima facie reduce the tax benefit available through such structures I’m interested how people restructure from this - do they opt for the humble company holding structure moving forward ? If so are they across any potential stamp duty implications…

@_mumbling_me @bowtiedstocks $45k or less? there’s a difference between marginal and effective tax rate…so it’s actually much higher than $45k

@bowtiedstocks This only affects ppl who distribute (from Trust) $45k PA or less per beneficiary. Other than its BAU for the rest.

@Larryjamieson_ not a silver bullet, but i’m exploring the idea of investing under pty ltd giving you franking credits and deferred tax benefits.

all of my investing group chats have moved to immigration and tax minimisation group chats

@fulovitboss @climate_is_ok let me know how you go. i’ve been asking AI and running scenario testing all morning around different combinations of personal income, dividend income and capital gains across putting it in company vs just personal name

@MaxGroucho1 @climate_is_ok Great chat gents, thanks. I’ve got an accountant call scheduled for next week - see what comes up

Whenever the smart people work out the best new tax structure for trading the stock market please share it around. I'm going to miss the 12 month CGT tax discount incentive after next June. I'll definitely not be investing in the stock market for as long anymore.

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss yeah nah I get it now. main benefit is franking credit and tax deferrals

@MaxGroucho1 @fulovitboss Keep the conversation going here. I'm not a tax expert. Hopefully someone can shed more light so everyone can be better informed

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss send me a DM if you can?

@MaxGroucho1 @fulovitboss Company structure best going forward imo Depends on individual circumstances. Superannuation better but locked away. PPOR still a tax haven but large and illiquid

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss i’m not following. so you’re saying future state, company structure no better? or still good?

Also company is better than trust because the credits for paid tax still flow through to the shareholder receiving the dividends whereas the proposed changes stop that happening; excess credits received by individuals are lost and companies cannot receive them at all i.e. double taxation

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss how does that work? happy to chat?

@MaxGroucho1 @fulovitboss As all my income is from investments, I can pay franked dividends to myself and result in zero personal tax bill up to around $130k

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss the drawback is that unlike discretionary trusts, as name suggests, you can’t decide which shareholder gets what % of those franked dividends and thus those tax credits? in any case 30% has already been paid…so it’s no better than personal or trust tax? only benefit is deferral?

@MaxGroucho1 @fulovitboss The company can pay franked dividends to shareholders i.e. with 30% tax credit attached. If/when shareholders are not receiving other sources of income the credits become a refund for the lower marginal brackets of income. Also the company can choose when to distribute income

@climate_is_ok @fulovitboss how does this benefit? co tax still at 30pc

@fulovitboss At this point I think a pty ltd is the way to go (outside of super and poor) The family investco can compound and/or pay franked dividends to shareholders

@LambDownUnder @hTLbLiNk @fulovitboss what? 50% discount removed for traders too. your double negative is confusing

@hTLbLiNk @fulovitboss Already do. But you can have investing stocks and trading stocks as well. Just because you're a trader doesn't mean you don't get the 50% disc on long term holdings.

what a retarded take, clearly never heard of a missed miscarriage or an ectopic pregnancy

@MR0808 @woolworths maybe put your scale on a proper flat surface first

@AdiSurreyEnergy wrong, July contract suffered same fate

Ziad, the driver is called 'contract expiry.' It happens every month, on the last day of the Brent contract. Only now, it is all amplified. To make futures tied to physical, Brent Index' sets futures on the last day and it is based on forward (almost physical) Brent trades.

@TradingWarz Me

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