@The_Ice_Creamy @JoshHousden Labour + Greens + Lib Dems + SNP would have a 1 seat center-left majority based on my quick mental math. Would be an ugly coalition negotiation.
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Noble Numbers, Polls & Politics
970 posts
Noble Numbers, Polls & Politics
@NobleNumbersPol
Project by Brendan Noble to examine political trends in the US and across the world from a data-focused perspective.
Illinois, USA Katılım Kasım 2025
197 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler
@JoshHousden Trying to watch a government form out of that would be tragically funny
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*hypothetical* seat projection based on current polling applied to a Single Transferable Vote system
Boundaries inspired by Denis Mollison's 143 constituencies proposal
Reform lead by ~40 seats
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@Nowcast_EU Oh look, they can form a Weimar... I mean Kenya Coalition.
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🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — May 23, 2026
➡️ AfD: 28% | 200 (+13)
⬛ Union: 23% | 163 (-12)
🟩 GRN: 14% | 99 (+2)
🟥 SPD: 12% | 89 (-5)
🟪 Linke: 11% | 78 (+2)
—
🟨 FDP: 3.7% | 0
🟪 BSW: 3.0% | 0
+/- vs. April 22
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@JoshHousden STV would be a great system for the UK, and honestly I wish the US would use it too
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Here's my central estimate for how the 2024 UK General Election would've looked using Single Transferable Vote
Boundaries inspired by Denis Mollison (143 constituencies)
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@Rachellane9606 @USA_Polling Tell that to Jeb Bush
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2028 President Democratic Polling:
Harris: 25%
Newsom: 17%
Buttigieg: 15%
AOC: 9%
Kelly: 8%
Shapiro: 6%
Booker: 5%
Pritzker: 4%
Beshear: 3%
Whitmer: 3%
Harris: 52%
Newsom: 48%
Lake Research / May 11, 2026
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@ASm1thee @bryan_eric60309 @USA_Polling Biden was historically unpopular. Sure, better than Trump, but I don't think given a choice between returning to his style vs a fresher candidate that people are going to be clamoring for Biden's VP. Especially given Gaza and Israel
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@NobleNumbersPol @bryan_eric60309 @USA_Polling No one will care about whatever problems they had with Biden by 2028. Considering how bad things have gotten, I've seen people getting NOSTALGIC for him.
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@ASm1thee @USA_Polling Biden was the VP to a popular president. Kamala was not.
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@NobleNumbersPol @USA_Polling Biden was the frontrunner in 2017.
Name recognition matters a lot more nowadays.
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@IAPolls2022 @PatrickRuffini Insane that the lead could be so slim in a blue wave. This redistricting war is insane.
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🇺🇸 House Redistricting Impact by @PatrickRuffini
🗺 If Dems win every Trump +9 or better district:
• New map: Dem 222 – GOP 213
• Old map: Dem 239 – GOP 196
Net result: 🔴 +17 seat GOP gain from redistricting
——
A strong Dem wave (Trump +10/11) would net Dems ~12 GOP seats
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@bryan_eric60309 @USA_Polling Pete definitely struggles with black voters. Whoever wins obviously will need a coalition within the base that includes black voters. Kamala obviously starts with an advantage there, but the weight of Biden will be a lot to overcome for her.
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@NobleNumbersPol @USA_Polling Kamala has close to majority support among black voters. Of she runs not saying she would win, but she will be a factor. I don't think it will be Pete. He can't win polling at like 4 percent with black voters.
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@TheStefanSmith I honestly think that would be better for him than presidential candidate. He is a bit of a technocrat while still being somewhat progressive. That fits at DNC.
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@_carlbeijer But I was told you appeal to the youth by going on the weird bald guy's show.
I say this as a somewhat weird bald guy 😂
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Obviously maternity/paternity leave is different, but proxy voting exists for certain cases and you don't fall off the face of the earth because you had a kid.
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Hot take: If you can't show up to Congress for months and no one knows where you are, then you should be automatically stripped of the position.
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Noble Numbers, Polls & Politics retweetledi
@electionsjoe Igniting the People's Republic of Madison-Milwaukee 😂
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Karl Marx himself would represent this district.
Owen@Nebraskademsoc
This would be a CD if the GOP could do it in WI i assure you.
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@electionsjoe Actually Duggan was taking more from the GOP in polls so this isn't ideal.
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WOAH. MASSIVE NEWS IN THE MICHIGAN GOVERNOR'S RACE. INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE, FORMER DETROIT MAYOR, MIKE DUGGAN IS DROPPING OUT OF THE MICHIGAN GOVERNOR'S RACE. INCREDIBLE NEWS FOR THE PRESUMED DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE JOCELYN BENSON.
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
🚨 BREAKING: Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is ending his independent bid for governor.
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@admcrlsn Goldman has voted to support a war we all hate, and Lander showed his ethics and beliefs during his mayoral run. Lander will make a solid congressman.
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Brad Lander has objectively been the favorite since he launched, but just an absolutely devastating poll for Dan Goldman.
I cannot recall a time in modern American political history in which an incumbent congressman was down 30+ points without facing some sort of major scandal.
Emerson College Polling@EmersonPolling
NYC CONGRESSIONAL POLLS with @PIX11News NY12 Micah Lasher 22% Alex Bores 20% Jack Schlossberg 11% George Conway 10% 32% undecided NY10 Brad Lander 57% Dan Goldman 23% 20% undecided NY07 Claire Valdez 23% Antonio Reynoso 21% Julie Won 13% 43% undecided emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-city-…
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@IAPolls2022 You highlighted White No-Degree, not the one with just men. He's just barely above water with that category just to the right of the highlighted one.
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Fox News Poll: Trump's approval trend among White non-college men
🟢 Mar 2025: 58-41% (+17)
🟢 Dec 2025: 55-45% (+10)
🟡 Feb 2026: 50-50% (=)
🟤 Mar. 2026: 46-54% (-8) ← new low
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL By Fox News (A) Approve: 39% (-3) Disapprove: 61% (+3) Lowest approval in either term —— Trump's net approval on key issues 🔴 Inflation: -52 (new low) 🔴 Economy: -42 (new low) 🔴 Foreign policy: -24 🟤 China summit: -9 🟤 Immigration: -8 🟤 Border Security: -2 —— Beacon (D) & Shaw Res. (R) | 5/15-18 foxnews.com/politics/fox-n…
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GOP senator grows a spine the second he loses his primary.
U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D.@SenBillCassidy
People are concerned about paying their mortgage or rent, affording groceries and paying for gas, not about putting together a $1.8 billion fund for the President and his allies to pay whomever they wish with no legal precedent or accountability. This is adding to our national debt. If there needs to be a settlement, the administration should bring it to Congress to decide.
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Noble Numbers, Polls & Politics retweetledi
I know a few teachers in Queens who would beg to differ.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bezos on CNBC: "You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens. I promise you."
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