Normal Guy

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Normal Guy

Normal Guy

@NormalGuybh

Just an average normal person

Normal Town, USA Katılım Aralık 2023
309 Takip Edilen78 Takipçiler
Normal Guy
Normal Guy@NormalGuybh·
@chamath Is $SOAR back on the table with their newly acquired 88k tonnes of copper?
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Stock PlayMaker 🌐
Stock PlayMaker 🌐@stockplaymaker1·
IF YOU HAD $10,000 TO BUY ONE STOCK AND HOLD UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY, WHICH ONE WOULD IT BE?
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WallStreetBets
WallStreetBets@wallstreetbets·
Wow! Prediction markets started as a retail curiosity. Now they are becoming foundational financial infrastructure! Huge congrats to the entire @Kalshi team on becoming the clear market leader with over 90% US market share 💰🇺🇸
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others. In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set of questions and harness the power of the masses to price them better than Wall Street. Kalshi was born to fulfill that dream. Today, most of these questions are traded indirectly, priced through imprecise proxies or negotiated bilaterally in opaque, restricted, relationship-driven markets. But thanks to our incredible community of users who make our markets work, Kalshi has the opportunity to change that by turning historically fragmented and untradeable risk into open, liquid, and standardized markets. We’ve seen this movie before. When interest rates, currencies, commodities, and crypto moved from dark to lit markets, volume did not just migrate: access expanded, new use cases emerged, and the opportunity grew by orders of magnitude. Today, Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally, with annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months. What started as retail is quickly becoming institutional — hedge funds, asset managers, prop firms, and insurers are beginning to trade, provide liquidity, and hedge real-world risk directly. The scope and scale of prediction markets are just beginning to take shape. We’re using this new capital to accelerate the institutional adoption underway — unlocking trillions in capital to facilitate active trading and risk management. Prediction markets are moving from early adoption to core financial infrastructure. This is just the beginning.

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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
NEW: Dairy Queen to test AI ordering at drive-thrus, aiming for at least 99% accuracy.
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AliceMia
AliceMia@Alice_MiaX·
Worst financial decision you ever made?
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ARK Invest
ARK Invest@ARKInvest·
Our May "In The Know" with @CathieDWood will be published this Friday, May 8 following the jobs report. As always, Cathie will weigh in on policy, jobs, and whatever else is moving markets. What other topics do you want her to cover?
ARK Invest tweet media
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PeloSwing🎯👸🏻
PeloSwing🎯👸🏻@PeloSwing·
$FLWS Earnings Thursday Morning EPS Estimate: -0.753 (Prev. -1.02) Rev. Estimate: $292.42M (Prev. $702.18M) Is this not the Easiest Beat Ever? @MrZackMorris
PeloSwing🎯👸🏻 tweet media
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Anthropic is reportedly nearing a $1.5 billion joint venture with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, & other Wall Street firms.
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Evan | Investments
Evan | Investments@NotA_Bull·
Which stock are you buying when the market opens tomorrow morning?
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Normal Guy
Normal Guy@NormalGuybh·
@NomadBets This is one of the most sane estimates of current NAV/share I’ve seen. Well done. I’m excited to see the outrageous premium the SpaceX shares go to post-IPO and how much of that DXYZ will capture after lockup. Those profits will uptick NAV too.
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NomadBets
NomadBets@NomadBets·
$DXYZ has the recipe to go absolutely nuclear. 30% short of very thin float (10M) of which ~20% BELOW NAV(!). Breaking out from wedge. SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI IPO play. Let me explain; bear with me because it's going to be long and for some boring story, but it's worth it. $DXYZ is a public fund that acquires exposure in private pre-IPO companies. Most notably they own SpaceX (25% of portfolio), Anthropic (20%), OpenAI (2%), Revolut (2%). The most looked-at metric for such a stock is the NAV, basically the actual value of a company's assets (which is all equity). What I've been doing is list all the companies they have in their portfolio listed in the Annual Report and their reported NAV is $19.93. So far no biggy. I then took this list and adjusted the value of each company to the values of today found on Forge Global. Forge is a website, like Hiive, where you can buy private companies and they show stock price and market caps. The kicker is that Forge is also the founder of $DXYZ, so we can confidently compare values of the Annual Report (1-JAN-26) and today (1-MAY-26). There were some winners and some losers, but the NAV increased to $22.85. Last week however, we got some big updates from some of these companies on new funding rounds or IPOs. Most importantly Anthropic, implying a 900Bn market cap instead of the 350Bn noted for in the DXYZ portfolio. DXYZ reacted +17% on the news. When adjusting these few companies to their "rumors" I came to a NAV of $31.70. In the meanwhile, since start of '26 shorts have increased the Short Interest from 6% to 30%, on a razor thin float of 10M and most of that has been below my calculated NAV. Meaning shorts have to cover above the actual Net Value of Assets of the company. I don't think I've seen anything like that before. Combine that with a clear break-out attempt on the technical side, with the 200EMA (white line on pic) squeezing the NAV🫦. If you want to see what these kind of things are capable of, check what this stock did at the start and what $VCX did last month ($30>$570>$75). Disclaimer: NFA, high risk, lottery ticket, extreme volatility, practically gambling. I'm already in since $24's.
NomadBets tweet mediaNomadBets tweet mediaNomadBets tweet media
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Stock PlayMaker 🌐
Stock PlayMaker 🌐@stockplaymaker1·
IF YOU HAD $10,000 TO BUY ONE STOCK AND HOLD UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY, WHICH ONE WOULD IT BE?
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Normal Guy
Normal Guy@NormalGuybh·
@unusual_whales "Palantir staff reportedly are morons who seemingly want to make less money"
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
"Palantir staff reportedly question company’s commitment to civil liberties," per FORTUNE
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Normal Guy
Normal Guy@NormalGuybh·
@BrianSozzi There should be an ETF that includes just those. Static, point in time (now). I’d bet on that.
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Brian Sozzi
Brian Sozzi@BrianSozzi·
The median S&P 500 stock trades 13% below its 52-week high:
Brian Sozzi tweet media
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Normal Guy
Normal Guy@NormalGuybh·
@no_tickerr Yep. It’s done it before, and $VCX is still WAY over NAV. Mostly need to figure out an exit strategy and watch it all happen.
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ThickCarl
ThickCarl@no_tickerr·
@NormalGuybh I have to stop myself from over leveraging. I have a modest position and want to be able to add if market stays irrational. Legit feels like one of those that will pop to 50 and then everyone will talk about it all of the sudden.
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ThickCarl
ThickCarl@no_tickerr·
$dxyz is likely 40% Anthropic and 30% SpaceX. Trading at NAV.
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Conspiracy Realist
Conspiracy Realist@br549ms·
@Polymarket Eliminate the number one capital gains penalty for most Americans- End Property Tax entirely.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Republicans are reportedly exploring indexing capital gains to inflation ahead of the midterms.
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