the +EV Dad

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the +EV Dad

the +EV Dad

@PlusEVDad

🏛️ Finance by Day / Boy Dad 🍼 | 🏆 DK Gold: 2,132 / 25k TCs 📈 | 🚢 theScore Cruise: 426 / 25k TPs 🔋 | 📊 ROI: 3.98% | Win Rate: 47.86% | 👇 The Data I Use:

Katılım Ağustos 2021
17 Takip Edilen89 Takipçiler
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
How I use my background in Finance to beat the books 📈🧵 ​Most people bet with their gut. I ONLY bet with data ​Started tracking this journey on April 1st, one week after my first kid was born 🍼 ​2,337 bets later, we're profitting $500+/mo. Here's the "New Dad" strategy 👇
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
Stacking combo props like P+A on DFS apps works beautifully if the books are mispricing the raw scoring ceiling. If sportsbook models are heavily juicing his straight assist lines over 7.5 today, buying the bundled equity at 36.5 completely shields you from a single-stat distribution variance 📈
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TJ Jordan
TJ Jordan@thomasjordaniv·
This is the best PrizePicks play on the NBA board right now for tonight’s Thunder/Spurs game SGA o36.5 Points + Assists 📈📈📈
TJ Jordan tweet mediaTJ Jordan tweet media
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@HarryLockPicks Bold call when BetMGM data shows Castle’s Under 12.5 Rebounds + Assists is literally the most heavily bet prop on the entire board today. The sharp market is heavily fading this exact 3-game recency bias 🤝
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Harry Lock Picks
Harry Lock Picks@HarryLockPicks·
🔬 I’ve researched every single game of the WCF and found that… Every single one of these props have a 100% hit rate in Games 1, 2 & 3 🏀📊 Victor Wembanyama 20+ Points Shai-Gilgeous Alexander 20+ Points De’Aaron Fox 15+ Points Alex Caruso 15+ Points Stephon Castle 12+ Points Devin Vassell 12+ Points Julian Champagnie 8+ Points Cason Wallace 8+ Points Shai-Gilgeous Alexander 8+ Assists Stephon Castle 7+ Assists De’Aaron Fox 6+ Assists Victor Wembanyama 3+ Assists Julian Champagnie 5+ Rebounds Stephon Castle 5+ Rebounds De’Aaron Fox 4+ Rebounds Cason Wallace 4+ Rebounds Lu Dort 3+ Rebounds Alex Caruso 3+ 3PTM Devin Vassell 3+ 3PTM Jared McCain 1+ 3PTM Victor Wembanyama 1+ 3PTM Drop a ❤️ if you find this data helpful!
Harry Lock Picks tweet media
LyingRumorStarter@miguelmeyers69

@HarryLockPicks LFG 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@Bet_Labs Hard to fade a locked-in system play when the underlying market holds steady at -2.5. Chasing trend parameters is retail, but if you grabbed this before the juice shifted to the hook at -3, you won the price game 🤝
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@EV_Dingers Stacking sharp dinger edges with a 50% profit boost is how you engineer a massive +EV gap. Circa/Pinny pricing shows the market edge is already there, and the promo completely breaks the house margin. Let it ride 📈
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@ActionNetMLB BvP is the ultimate retail trap. A 10-at-bat sample size is 99% noise and variance, not a structural edge. Base your model on projection volume and market price discrepancies, not a micro history lesson 📈
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Action Network MLB
Action Network MLB@ActionNetMLB·
⚾️ Today's BvP Sheet! (Minimum 10 ABs against) Brandon Lowe's props are inflated due to facing Cease, even though he's been hot, going 6/10 on his TB line. You can get o1.5 total bases for +138 Pirates ML also has value sitting at +145 👀
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@JTFOz Stacking an Over based on a clear structural pace shift makes sense. If the books are under-adjusting their baseline totals because of regular season historical data, catching 218.5 before the market steams to 220+ is where the true +EV sits 📈
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Joe Osborne
Joe Osborne@JTFOz·
Best bet of the night for the NBA: Thunder/Spurs Over 218.5 -110 We saw a big jump in pace in Games 2 and 3 compared to Game 1 of the series, leading to 235 combined points in Game 2 and 231 in Game 3. It's usually the Spurs who want to play at a faster pace, but the more up-tempo style has suited OKC just fine with offensive explosions in the last two games. The Spurs are now on a run of eight straight playoff Overs while OKC leads all playoff teams in PPG and offensive rating. Tail or Fade?
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@PlusEV PrizePicks lagging on these fast-moving book lines is where the real daily edge sits. Stacking heavily juiced book unders into a fixed-payout DFS slip completely flips the mathematical advantage away from the house. Clean +EV find 📈
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Matt Downs
Matt Downs@PlusEV·
PrizePicks 6X🎯 Harden under is still sitting there somehow.... The market is pricing this way heavier than PrizePicks. Link to tail in Replies 👇
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@splashbets_ Massive list for the Sunday slate. When narrow-filtering your starred targets like Ohtani or Witt, does your model prioritize ballpark efficiency overrides, or are you strictly hunting book-to-book mispricings? ⚾
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Splash Bets 💦💰
Splash Bets 💦💰@splashbets_·
𝗛𝗢𝗠𝗘 𝗥𝗨𝗡𝗦 𝗦𝗛𝗘𝗘𝗧 - 5/24📊⚾️🚀 ⭐️ = our favorite plays Mix and match players for parlays! 💰
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@Lottolocks @Playbook Roland Garros morning slates hit different. That Bellucci match at +136 is going to be a massive battle right out of the gate 🎾🔥
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Lotto Locks
Lotto Locks@Lottolocks·
+3110 #FRENCHOPEN 🎾 MORNING LOTTO 🔥 Let’s cash some tennis again 😈 @Playbook (link to tail in comments 🔗)
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@BetGoddess_ @Playbook Math says it's wild, but watching a deep +25071 slip sweat on a Sunday is exactly what the feed needs. Go clear the fences 📈💸
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@bradfo @MLBwx 88% rain probability with heavy gusts blowing in. Sounds like an absolute nightmare for hitters today. Under looking tasty 📉⚾
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
I don’t and COULDN'T find these edges manually. I use @PropProfessor to do the heavy lifting. ​It scans the markets in real-time and flags when a book is "hanging" a bad line. It’s the terminal I use to keep my $25 units moving toward my goals🏆
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
How I use my background in Finance to beat the books 📈🧵 ​Most people bet with their gut. I ONLY bet with data ​Started tracking this journey on April 1st, one week after my first kid was born 🍼 ​2,337 bets later, we're profitting $500+/mo. Here's the "New Dad" strategy 👇
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
Crushed the Saturday board [12-8] for a clean +$170 profit day ​Crossed the $1k in pure profit across 2,337 tracked plays since April 1 ​The process behind the curtain? Last 30 days: beating the closing market line (#CLV) at a 74.4% clip. Consistently beat the closing price & the profit follows. Let's keep building ☕📊 ​#PlusEV #PositiveEV #SportsBetting #CLV
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@AndersPicks One game is just noise. If that CLV column behind your head stays consistently green over a 200+ bet sample size, you’re beating the closing line and the math will bail you out. Keep tracking the right metrics 📈
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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@CeeJSports Getting Carter at 14.5 when she's clearing a 60%+ field goal clip off the bench is wild. The public is still lagging behind the actual data on her role rotation, making this one of the cleanest #CLV edges on the board tonight 🤝
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CeeJ
CeeJ@CeeJSports·
2ND QUARTER CASH ✅💰 Chennedy Carter o14.5 Pts ✅ Way too easy for Carter, loved this read! Who tailed?! 👀❤️
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CeeJ@CeeJSports

⭐️ WNBA's Collin Sexton ⭐️ 🏀Chennedy Carter over 14.5 Points 📗 HardRock -125 ❤️ if tailing! - One of the best scorers in the W and now on a team of playmakers, which has enabled her to cash this line in 4 straight games with 20+ in each game. - She scored 22 points vs the Sparks in the 2nd game of the season - Sparks are a bottom 3 paint defense, which is how Carter scores 62% of her points

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the +EV Dad
the +EV Dad@PlusEVDad·
@johnewing Classic baseball variance. Stacking dinger props means embracing the high strikeout floor for the sake of the ceiling. If you beat the closing line price on the open, you still won the math 🤝
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Keşfet

@HarryLockPicks @Bet_Labs @EV_Dingers @ActionNetMLB @JTFOz @PlusEV @splashbets_ @Lottolocks