Rockwater

@CaesarCapitalz @babyfolio Its real alright and its not worth holding out hope when your other bucks are killing it ATM.

@babyfolio I'm trying to build a more concentrated portfolio and was wondering if I should sell my underperforming positions. I just have a hard time selling stocks I believe in for the long term! But you're right, opportunity cost is real!

I don’t get why people insist on fighting the trend by loading up on SaaS / Healthcare / Fintech. I see so many still posting about them. Not saying those sectors can’t work. There are definitely quality SaaS names that are unjustifiably beaten down, I’m just not interested in trying to catch them here. I want strong sector momentum behind my investments, and right now these sectors simply don’t have it. Retail favorites like $SOFI and $ZETA are still down YTD, and some of these names have been dead money for years despite all the hype. Trust me, I know the pain personally too. (Thanks $TSLA.) Could they eventually do well? Absolutely. But if you’re looking for outsized returns, weak sector sentiment is usually not where the biggest winners come from. My opinion: It’s completely okay to sell a stock even if you still believe in the company. Opportunity cost is REAL, and sitting in dead money while other sectors run can hurt more than taking the loss.

@ChairmansLedger @X Yes it is

An LLM plus @X is a weapon. I’m here to use it properly. My aim is simple: reach the next level before 40, and help as many of you as possible do the same along the way. As someone who spent time on Wall Street, I can tell you this room is ahead of where the traditional market conversation still is. This is one of the best places on earth to get rich if you have the judgment to use it.

@ChairmansLedger Hear hear Mr. Chairman. Cheers

I’ve only been on X for 12 days, and for the most part people have been incredible. Welcoming. Engaging. Sharp. Generous with ideas. There have also been one or two haters. Truth be told, I actually value them. Every insult gives you a chance to reflect and remember what kind of person you want to be and to be thankful that you are not like that. It is easy to insult someone online when you do not have to look someone in the eye. So I'm happy to welcome them. They are free reps to build your character.

@BlackPantherCap Most excellent dive. A Triple Lindy.

Deep dive: x.com/BlackPantherCa…

$OUST is up 65% since I wrote this. Added link to my deep dive in comments section. We are still early. Physical AI is the next wave. $OUST is imo a ten-bagger. -BP Not financial advice.

@BlackPantherCap You were my first source….

I only sell Puts on the stocks I want to own or already own. Let that sink in. I only buy LEAPS on stocks I want to own or already own. See the pattern yet?

Feeling grateful for the super smart people I follow on X.

@dxwin129 @IamRamenPanda $1 per month

@IamRamenPanda 请问需要付费订阅吗

Serenity 是美股头号牛散 是收割美国大机构的牛散，檀香园做空AAOI，他一条推就打爆人家机构了 全球银行、券商、家办、富豪们，同步关注的大牛散 你可以取关所有博主，只看他一人都行

@tajon58 Certainly warrants deep consideration. I can’t predict the future but I can prepare for uncertainty.

Ray Dalio向全球发出严厉警告：2026年将迎来史上最严峻的金融危机。 比2008年更惨，堪比1929大萧条。 有人说他危言耸听。但这次他不是一个人这么说——Michael Burry、Jamie Dimon、Ken Griffin全在发同类警告。 说三个已经冒烟的雷区。 第一个：全球债务320万亿美元。 美国国债刚刚突破39万亿，增速比经济还快。利息支出超过军费——你交的税，先还利息再打仗，最后才轮到你。 日本政府债务240%的GDP，利息支出的1.7%。新兴市场未来3年需偿还3.2万亿到期债务。 IMF说：极端情境下，2027年全球公共债务将达GDP的117%，二战以来最高。 第二个：AI泡沫。 这不是"可能"是泡沫——数据已经摆在那了。美国头部10家AI公司平均市盈率95倍。2000年互联网泡沫峰值是150倍。现在95倍，离顶点还有距离吗？ Michael Burry的原话："The scene of the bloody car crash, minutes before it happens." 而大部分AI公司，零盈利。全靠故事撑着。 第三个：美元信用松动。 美元指数从113高位跌到96，全球避险资金不买美元了。这在历史上只发生过几次——每一次都对应当美国霸权的转折点。 真正可怕的不是某一个雷区爆炸，而是三个雷区同时爆炸。 债务危机 + AI泡沫破裂 + 美元信用动摇，这三个完全可以在同一年发生。而且它们会互相强化：债务危机→政府被迫印钱→美元信用更差→AI泡沫破裂加速→税收减少→债务危机加深。 这才是2026年真正的风险。 还有，2026年美国正值换届年 + 伊朗战争持续扩大 + 政府停摆危机不断。政治不确定性叠加经济脆弱性，等于往火药桶上浇油。 Ray Dalio说美国正走向"债务死亡螺旋"。 Jamie Dimon说"某种形式的危机几乎不可避免"。 CBO自己说：未来十年利息支出将再翻一番。 你不需要预知未来才能知道要出事了。你只需要看数据——而数据已经喊破喉咙了。 不是2026年一定会崩。但如果你不做好准备，等真的崩了才反应过来，那就晚了。

@YoYInvestor Very nicely articulated. The more I look at $ONDS the more bullish i become.

Yes, $ONDS could trade at $100+ by 2030. Why couldn’t it? 🤔 You’ll have to hear me out before you riot in my comment section. $RKLB currently trades at approximately $80B in market cap. $NOC also trades at approximately $80B in market cap. Rocket Lab does $680M in revenue while Northrop does $43B. Same market cap with a 63x revenue multiple difference. The market is not pricing Rocket Lab on what it earns today, it is pricing the category it represents: foundational space infrastructure, sovereign launch capability, and the platform of the future rather than the platform of the past. Northrop is being priced as what it is: a mature, profitable, institutionally entrenched defense prime. Rocket Lab is being priced as what the market believes it will become at 118x revenue, not because the current business justifies it, because the narrative and the category justify it. This distinction matters a lot for how we think about $ONDS. Ondas at $9 trades at approximately 7.7x EV/Sales on $390M in 2026 revenue. The market is pricing it like Northrop - a mature defense hardware company with a utility multiple. Not because the business resembles Northrop, but because the market has not yet decided what category Ondas belongs to. My strong belief: Ondas commands a multiple closer to Rocket Lab than to Northrop Grumman. Rocket Lab commands 118x revenue because the market decided it owns a foundational layer of space infrastructure that no competitor can quickly replicate. Ondas is building the foundational layer of autonomous defense. The operating system that connects sensing, reasoning, and action across every domain simultaneously that no competitor currently offers as an integrated, proven system. The category premium does not require Ondas to be Rocket Lab, it requires the market to decide that what Ondas is building deserves a growth platform multiple rather than a hardware company multiple. Ondas reaching $2B in revenue by 2030 is analytically defensible. In that scenario, at 30x revenue, the stock implies approximately $100 per share. At 50x revenue, approximately $170. The 118x Rocket Lab multiple? It’s almost not worth saying. These are scenarios, not predictions, but they illustrate the magnitude of the re-rating that I believe is coming. The US Army just officially reallocated billions from legacy manned aviation toward autonomous systems. Jensen Huang just told the investment world the next wave is physical AI. $PLTR will be embedding its core AI platform across the Ondas stack as they pursue multi-domain ISR programs together. The market priced Rocket Lab at $80B for owning a foundational layer of next generation technology. Ondas is building something very similar in the autonomous defense and security space. It trades at just $4.5B. Saying $ONDS could trade at $100 one day sounds crazy now, but people said the same thing about $RKLB in 2024. Look where we are now. I’m willing to be the one who says it now in 2026.

@GlobalCollapse This should land $KEEL in a good position.

I find it interesting that the datacenter companies that signed away large chunks of their capacity months ago at rates that are 40-50% below current rate are being rewarded while the ones that held onto it while rates continue to rise are still underappreciated... $IREN

@CKCapitalxx Very helpful information

The $HLIT thesis is one of the simplest I have ever come across. Cable and internet providers are spending $100,000 to $500,000+ per node on physical hardware. Boxes that sit in facilities. Boxes that become obsolete every 3 to 5 years. Boxes that require trucks, technicians, and massive capital expenditure every single replacement cycle. Forever. $HLIT walks in and says stop. Buy our software once. Run your entire network virtually. Scale with an update not a hardware order. No more replacement cycles. No more truck rolls. No more capex surprises. Just a simple annual maintenance fee that is a fraction of what the hardware costs. The pitch basically sells itself. Every operator that runs the numbers converts. And once they convert the switching costs make it permanent. 150 customers. 45.7 million cable modems running on their platform today. $582 million in backlog up 87% year over year. Revenue up 43% last quarter. Full year guidance $475 to $495 million. 52% gross margins. The whole industry is going to look back in 10 years and wonder why they ever bought hardware in the first place.

@CKCapitalxx Def doing my own research on it tonight and this weekend. Very high institutional ownership- struggling to find the hidden value so far but still looking.

Is $HLIT becoming X new favorite stock?

@Agrippa_Inv @danroberts0101 Looking forward to reading it.

My take on @danroberts0101 new post $IREN Co-CEO just dropped a beautifully written thread on the company's compounding competitive advantages. Seriously, a must read for every $IREN investor or folks who are on the fence. My highlights: - Dan confirmed that the 60 MW cloud contract with $NVDA is in fact measured in 'gross' MW, not IT. That was already obvious to me based on the earnings call material, however, it's great to get definitive confirmation. The implications of this is ENORMOUS. The $NVDA contract has incredible economics, something I've analyzed extensively in my upcoming $IREN deep dive (released in a couple of days on Substack). - Dan firing shots at the likes of $NBIS & $CRWV: "And the asset-light neocloud trying to compete by renting capacity is discovering that sites were locked up years ago, and the operators utilizing them aren’t subletting. By the time new entrants solve for land, power and permitting, IREN will have gigawatts online, execution track record, and customer relationships that took years to build. That gap doesn’t close. It compounds." This is by far my favorite quote coming out of Dan. Eventually, everyone will realize that the real advantage $IREN has over the rest of the neo-cloud sector, is the fact that they are the only provider that's 100% vertically integrated. They don't have to deal with any land-lords. They don't have to pay billions to $BE to secure fuel cells in a desperate attempt to salvage a project that is tied to a large customer contract. $IREN is in control of its own destiny, and eventually that will show up in the bottom line (profits). The “asset-light” model never works in an infrastructure-heavy industry. It works for hardware, when you are the high-margin designer and outsource the manufacturing process to a specialized entity. But it doesn’t work when the infrastructure itself is the product. In cloud, the value is not just in having access to GPUs. The value is in controlling the full stack, which mostly consists of physical infrastructure. If you outsource all of that to colocation partners, you are not building an AI factory. You are renting someone else’s factory, layering a spread on top, and hoping the economics still work after the landlord, the power provider, the OEM, and the lender have all taken their share. That model can look attractive in the early innings because it allows rapid capacity announcements without heavy upfront CapEx. But structurally, it leaves the operator with the worst part of the value chain. I'm really looking forward to comparing the net income lines between $IREN, $CRWV, and $NBIS a few years from now. I wouldn't be surprised if two out of the three remain unprofitable by then. - I really enjoyed Dan's section about becoming a global cloud provider. He did a great job in explaining the importance of being locally present in the markets you want to source customers from. Not just due to local proximity for inference, but also due to compliance & sovereignty. These were my highlights, I'll let you discover the other gems yourself. This is easily Dan's best post and I think it does a lot in terms of IR, especially as it's coming from him; the co-founder and co-CEO of $IREN. As mentioned earlier, very soon I'll be releasing a new deep dive on $IREN. It goes deep into the implications of the $NVDA partnership and Mirantis acquisition, including a bunch of different topics worth exploring. So far, the report is 30 pages long (including graphs / images) and I'm in the process of finalizing it. Honestly, one of my best deep dives to date. I know I'm saying that for each release, but the depth and quality of our work is undoubtedly increasing. Can't wait to publish it. Cheers guys! ✌️

@Ellis8772678531 Sweet

#keel $KEEL KEEL appears on the FTSE 3000 preliminary additions list 👀👀

@wealthmatica Its a wild ride. All the best.

I have an announcement. I have officially started a new position… - $DAD - Allocation: 100% There’s no exiting this one!

@Gubloinvestor Added to research list.

I added 4 new positions yesterday $DRAM Memory ETF $GRID Power ETF $FPS Data centers manufacturing $CLFD Physical infrastructure Added some $CRDO on Wednesday.. Lets win this AI game..

@DaltonKrum Good sign

Not going to lie retail sentiment on $ONDS is as poor as I can remember. Definitely a signal imo

@HertzyTrades Selling. Otherwise LEAPs

the art of selling options > the art of buying options why I believe this: - consistent premium collection is achievable - easier to manage - theta decay works in my favor every day and yes, I do buy options too do you prefer buying options over selling?