Sengi

📌Here's my deep dive into Metaplanet's Operating Profit. Metaplanet has a revenue target of ¥16 billion in 2026. How will it be achieved? #metaplanet #mtplf #メタプラネット youtu.be/FuiZgVrjngM

E172: @Saylor: Why Hard Work Won't Make You Rich Michael Saylor is the chairman of @Strategy - the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with over 840,000 BTC and $65+ billion deployed. He bought his first Bitcoin in 2020 when the Fed cut rates to zero hasn't stopped since. With WSH, I always want to go much deeper than the current narrative and that’s exactly what we did here. We gradually moved past the surface and into the things that really shaped Michael. We talked about his childhood, growing up in a military family, buying domain names in the 1990s and flipping them for tens of millions, losing $6 billion of his net worth in a single day during the dot-com bubble, his great Apple bet in 2012, why working hard won't make you rich, why you should mortgage your house but probably not sell your kidney to buy BTC, why "THERE IS NO SECOND BEST", and a lot more. The conversation lasted more than two hours, much longer than originally planned, and it was just amazing. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:05 - Explain what you do to an Uber driver 05:35 - Advice for Rick, the struggling Uber driver 07:07 - Who is Michael Saylor? 11:02 - Sponsors @Trezor & @Bitwise 11:48 - Kevin's Business Intelligence Company 13:14 - Michael's childhood and chip on the shoulder 17:56 - Has Michael conquered the world yet? 19:49 - Just because you can, doesn't mean you should 28:23 - Sponsors @KASTxyz & @sumsub 30:02 - Low time preference and scarcity 43:50 - Buying and flipping domain names for tens of millions 55:11 - Bitcoin is a lifeboat 1:01:31 - Should you mortage your house to buy Bitcoin? 1:09:50 - The great $60B in Bitcoin bet: risks 1:15:32 - Sponsors @JupiterExchange , @ethena 1:16:16 - Sell the kidney if you must but keep the Bitcoin 1:20:14 - What's the endgame for Strategy? 1:28:16 - Where does Bitcoin price end? 1:29:36 - Where would Bitcoin price be without Michael Saylor? 1:31:06 - What is STRC? 1:35:34 - Should my mom put her life savings in STRC? 1:37:12 - How do you always invent new ways to buy more Bitcoin? 1:49:19 - From God to Madman every 6 months: handling insane volatility 1:51:49 - How Michael lost $6 Billion of his net worth in one single day in 2000 and then watched MSTR go down another 99% 1:59:09 - Why Michael doesn't have children 1:59:44 - Why working hard is the worst advice you can get 2:07:37 - Why THERE IS NO SECOND BEST, there is only one crypto asset 2:15:03 - Thanking Michael from the whole crypto industry

𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐋𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬. 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐑𝐄𝐍 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬. There's been a lot happening at IREN recently. Expansion across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The NVIDIA partnership. The Mirantis acquisition. New GPU deployments. New customer discussions. A growing global footprint. Underneath all of it is a fairly simple view of where the world is heading, and a deliberate strategy for how we position IREN within it. That strategy is built on three layers. Together, they compound into a structural advantage that gets harder to replicate every quarter we execute. Layer 1: Physical infrastructure. Power, land, substations, data centers, cooling. The foundation that everything else sits on. Layer 2: Compute infrastructure. The GPUs, servers and networking that go inside those buildings. Deployed at scale. Generating revenue. Building execution track record. Layer 3: Software and operational capability. The orchestration, deployment tooling and enterprise expertise that makes the first two layers work harder for customers, and opens the door to a broader, higher-value market over time. Layers 1 and 2 are where the overwhelming majority of IREN's value is being created today. Layer 3 is where that advantage compounds further over time, but only because Layers 1 and 2 are built, owned and controlled at scale by IREN, not subscale nor contracted from a third party. Think of Amazon. They didn't win e-commerce by building a great website. They won it by controlling the fulfilment infrastructure at a scale nobody else could replicate. The foundation you don't control becomes the ceiling on your business. That is exactly how we think about IREN. The physical infrastructure - the land, the power, the substations, the data centers - is owned and controlled by us. The compute deployed into it generates the revenue and execution track record. And the software, orchestration and enterprise capability we are more methodically building on top is what turns the total product into a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform that compounds over time and deepens into a competitive moat. AI is still early. The bottleneck is increasingly physical. And we have spent eight years building the foundations.

The $NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang just revealed the full 5 layer stack the AI super cycle is built upon… These 5 layers include: 1. Energy ~ $CEG, $VST, $OKLO, $EOSE, $GEV 2. Chips & Computing ~ $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, $MU, $ARM 3. Cloud & Data Centers ~ $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, $APLD, $CIFR 4. AI Models ~ $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL 5. Applications ~ $PLTR, $TSLA, $NOW, $SNOW, $CRM Without these companies there is no AI; which is exactly why these names will continue to see massive long term growth. Save this for later…

THE ULTIMATE ORANGE PILL IN 12 MINUTES BITCOIN IS INEVITABLE:

Metaplanet issuing their prefs to buy only 200 BTC/day would be absolutely psychotic. I ran the CEBE math on this scenario (no common stock issuance or crazy mNAV expansion, and only 1,400 Bitcoin per week) Starting point: 40,177 BTC 0.97x EV mNAV $297M debt $149M preferred 2,463 raw sats per diluted share ~2,157 CEBE sats/share after senior claims Now imagine Metaplanet buys 200 BTC/day for 3 years using preferred equity only. No common issuance. That adds 219,200 BTC. Total stack becomes 259,377 BTC Yes, a quarter-million Bitcoin treasury built by feeding yield addicts into the preferred equity wood chipper. At 0.97x CEBE NAV, projected Metaplanet share price: Year 1: BTC to $100k: $1.97 BTC to $150k: $2.73 BTC to $200k: $3.49 BTC to $300k: $5.00 BTC to $500k: $8.04 Year 2: BTC to $100k: $2.62 BTC to $150k: $4.86 BTC to $200k: $7.11 BTC to $300k: $11.60 BTC to $500k: $20.59 Year 3: BTC at $100k: $3.58, +73% BTC at $150k: $8.03, +288% BTC at $200k: $12.49, +503% BTC at $300k: $21.39, +934% BTC at $500k: $39.21, +1,794% The bear case is literally “what if Bitcoin only goes to $100k and Metaplanet only goes up 73%.” Horrifying stuff. At $300k BTC, common equity CEBE rises to ~7,351 sats/share even after the preferred claims. At $500k BTC, it hits ~8,084 sats/share. Preferred investors get their yield. Metaplanet gets Bitcoin. Bitcoin goes up. The dollar senior claim shrinks in BTC terms. Common equity eats the residual like a starving rat behind a Tokyo 7-Eleven. Remember, this is with ZERO common shares issued or mNAV expansion. BULLISH ON THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY: :::

Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS. The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades. This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries. Here are some of the names that Trump bought: $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN.

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Anthropic showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually prompt Claude. Taught by the people who built it. Free. No signup. No paywall. I've watched $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Today I spoke for the first time on @FransBakker9812's space about $IREN. Some of my key points for the short term and long term: Short term: 1. IREN is going through a rerate as an AI company. The initial move was early movers who could see beyond the bitcoin miner framing and recognised that IREN's transition to AI would compound on their proven blueprint of mass-printing bitcoin mining facilities which are not far off AI data centers. Most of the market hasn't caught up yet. The Mirantis acquisition, on top of all its software benefits, has a second-order effect of accelerating the rebrand. My thesis is this rerating has just started and will continue as new tech-native investors discover IREN through Mirantis and realise the potential. 2. It's been ~6 months since the Microsoft deal. I didn't expect a new deal at last earnings — IREN is conservative and was always going to execute on Microsoft before committing to another customer. That's partly to prove out the blueprint for the first time post-BTC-to-AI-HPC pivot, and partly to manage the risk of scaling too fast. Now that Dan has posted about delivering on the first Microsoft tranches, my thesis is they'll have the confidence to scale up and run multiple build-outs in parallel. Combine that with the "advanced negotiations" language from last earnings, and I wouldn't be surprised by a deal before or at earnings — either a new customer or a Microsoft extension. With the blueprint now battle-tested through production hell, I also wouldn't be surprised by a second deal at the same time or shortly after (given the 6 months – almost 2 quarters of no deal), to scale data center production simultaneously. The constraint is no longer execution risk — it's capital, and that's what the ATM is for. 3. IREN has been plastering the US and Australia with ad spend. Knowing how conservative they are with capital, I doubt they'd let that momentum die without capitalising on it short-term. That leads me to expect (one or the other) an announcement on their enterprise strategy targeting higher margin, easier to serve customers than just Hyperscalers or something specifically in Australia. 4. I find it hard to believe IREN hasn't front-run commercial negotiations ahead of Sweetwater energising and the Microsoft deal completing. Having that much uncontracted power sitting available without a deal lined up to keep monetisation going feels off for such a highly competent pair of co-founders from deep infrastructure banking backgrounds. 5. IREN has dropped substantial announcements in the last few weeks — Horizon progress, Sweetwater energised, the Mirantis acquisition — all before the earnings call. Hard to believe they'd reveal all of that with nothing left to disclose at earnings. Contrast with last earnings, where they had nothing big and saved the Oklahoma site reveal for the call itself. 6. Mirantis was happy to be acquired in 100% shares. Employees who've built that company over 20+ years accepting stock-only consideration suggests they see the growth ahead in IREN — and potentially what's coming near-term in price accretion (a customer deal). 7. There's a narrative that Dan and Will don't care about short-term price action vs long-term shareholder returns. But with the ATM they need to tap soon — to fund more build-outs and effectively pay for Mirantis — I find it hard to believe they'd let the stock tank when they need to dilute. I think they've been very coordinated with announcements for exactly this reason. They're price-conscious, they have incentive to drive the share price short-term, and they have a final card to play at earnings. 8. Nebius has run hard recently — to a P/E of over 4,000 as per Yahoo and Google Finance. IREN trades around 40 — ~100x lower. With the software FUD now resolved by Mirantis, I think the market will start to see IREN as the more undervalued pure-AI play vs NBIS. 9. In addition to the ‘IREN has no software’ FUD being solved now, there was also light FUD around IREN being an Australian company and therefore less familiar and trustworthy to some American and International investors. I believe with an announcement for an expansion in Australia, this FUD will turn into a strength as IREN’s roots proves to be a highly valuable access point to Australia and even Asia-Pacific. This is similar to NBIS’s perceived strength of being an access point to Europe. Long term: 1. IREN is a one-of-one company. Dan and Will Roberts are first-principles operators who saw the AI compute demand over 5 years ago, knew how to fund it by mining bitcoin and selling it at the spot rate without needing a customer, prioritised renewables from day one, and understood the importance of investing in local communities to avoid NIMBY pushback. Best management team in the space, in my opinion. The market has largely got it wrong assuming that printing AI data center requires a deep tech background — in my view infrastructure banking and the ability to identify, procure and develop large scale sites is far more relevant - everything else is an add-on. 2. AI compute is the oil of the digital world. It's required to run every industry efficiently and competitively from here on. You can't model IREN's future market cap based on point-in-time GPU pricing. Even applying growth rates is too thin — rates can move exponentially via second-order effects (supply chain disruption, AI breakthroughs that ramp compute requirements). This isn't quantitative; it's probabilistic and exponential. If NVDA can be a future 20T market cap company, I wouldn't be surprsied by IREN being a 1T company emerging as the most competent company to plug their chips in. 3. IREN has the best blueprint for mass producing data centers. Vertical integration means they control the refinement loop — every nut and bolt of the build process. If Coreweave or NBIS lease out one piece of that process to another player, how can they control quality? How can they understand how to improve it? IREN can, because they own the whole process. That closed-loop quality feedback lets them refine the blueprint to the point where they can run it across multiple parallel processes with little incremental risk. As time compounds, that's what monetises their estimated 10GW pipeline runway (4.5GW disclosed so far) exponentially faster than their competitors. 4. I've often joked that IREN is the SpaceX for Earth. Like SpaceX, IREN sits at the intersection of three vectors: datacentres are extremely high value right now, has an infinite TAM, and very difficult to build. That difficulty is the part the market hasn't priced in yet — and it's what will eventually command a multiple. SpaceX and NVIDIA both have plenty of competitors but emerge as winners because they built proprietary mass-production blueprints with closed feedback loops and first-principles thinking. Other neocloud players are too diversified or too leveraged on outsourced construction. NBIS has interests well outside data centers. Coreweave is software-first and leases its construction to Core Scientific — so they don't really own their construction quality in full. IREN isn't missing the forest for the trees. They know the real neocloud edge is compute, and that vertically integrating construction — though hard — leads to better service quality, performance, and blueprint refinement for the next datacenter. @mikealfred

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Your Capex is My Opportunity. The old business cycle is being replaced by the AI capex cycle: semis, power, data centers, chemicals and energy. Earnings are rising, but so are inflation/rate warnings. Benchmarks are late. The AI buildout is early. Latest Video: youtu.be/2ZpMtgN6nTo

Instead of looking for a needle in a haystack, just buy the entire AI haystack. Compute: $NVDA, $AMD, $MU, $ASML, $TSM Networking: $ANET Power and cooling: $CEG, $BE, $VRT Data: $MDB, $ORCL Control layer: $PLTR Security: $CRWD Observation: $DDOG Cloud infrastructure: $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL

$SOFI five years ago: • $16/share • 1.5M members with ~$260M gross profit run-rate $SOFI today: • $16/share • 14.7M members with ~$2.4B gross profit run-rate Same price. Very different business.

Long term compounding of amplified Bitcoin gets you pretty crazy results. HOLDING METAPLANET FOR 10 YEARS FOR THIS REASON:

$SOFI is below $16 as the market opens. Here are my thoughts on 1Q earnings. probabli.ai/articles/sofi-…

$TSLA is positioning to be the largest physical AI deployment platform by the end of this decade. By 2031, Tesla could become a $375B revenue story where AI, robots, services, energy & Cybercab together become larger than automotive: • Automotive 40% • Cybercab 24% • Robots 16% • Energy 11% • Services 9%