Shai Ben-ari

Today, right after the call of “Allahu Akbar” at dawn, the regime in Iran, placed a noose around this young man’s neck and kicked the chair from under his feet, so he would struggle, suffocate, and die. Yes this is happening in 21st century. They executed him because he went to protest with empty hands and said he wanted freedom. His name is Amirali Mirjafari. He was only 22 years old. They called him a “leader” of the protests. But they never said when he was arrested, how he was tortured, or how he was tried. Because everything was done in silence, a silence enforced by threats against his family. They imprisoned him in silence. They tortured him in silence. They tried him in silence. And they executed him in silence. Dozens of protesters have been executed the same way. Yet many political leaders in the West, who suddenly worry about “international law”, after a military strike against Ali Khamenei and members of IRGC have not said a single word about these barbaric killings. Why? Why is there silence when young civilians are hanged for demanding freedom?

📢 ECPS Interview 🇮🇷 Dr. Azizi: The Islamic Republic Will Survive, but in a Less Ideological, More Pragmatic Form ✍️ Interview by Selcuk Gultasli 🚨 As confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States intensifies, Dr. Arash Azizi (@arash_tehran) of Yale University offers a sober, analytically grounded assessment of Iran’s trajectory. Rather than collapse, he anticipates transformation: a gradual shift from revolutionary ideology toward strategic pragmatism. 📍 At the core of his argument is the decline of “Soleimaniism” and the erosion of militia-based regional projection. “That era is now largely over,” he notes, pointing instead to a recalibration centered on regional integration and diplomatic engagement. ⚖️ Yet this outward pragmatism coincides with internal consolidation. Dr. Azizi highlights the rise of a militarized, securitized state, with IRGC-linked elites increasingly shaping power structures. 🌍 Crucially, Tehran appears to recognize that “sustained hostility toward the United States and enmity toward Israel… is not sustainable,” opening space for normalization and reconstruction. 📌 The outcome: not regime collapse, but reconfiguration—less ideological, more technocratic, and strategically adaptive. 📕 Read the interview: 🔗 populismstudies.org/dr-azizi-the-i… #Iran #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Authoritarianism #Populism #IRGC #USIran #IsraelIran #SecurityState #ForeignPolicy #GlobalPolitics #Islamism

من بنظرم ۳ تا سناریو ممکنه رخ بده: ۱. سناریوی نسبتا خنثی: سران نظام در توهم قدرت فکر میکنن میتونن امتیاز بگیرن و امریکا فهمیده که امیدی نیست و باید کار رو اساسی یکسره کنه. بنابراین این آتش‌بس صرفا تاکتیکی هست برای زمان خریدن که امریکا و اسرائیل نفس تازه کنن و مقدمات حمله سنگین یا حتی مستقیما حمله زمینی رو فراهم کنن معیار سنجش این سناریو: تحرکات هوایی و جابجایی های لوژیستیکی امریکا و اسرائیل. تکرار بازی‌های مسخره در مذاکرات قبلی مثل تعویق، تاخیر و بهانه تراشی. ۲. سناریوی سیاه: واقعا ترامپ از شرایط جنگ و تنگه هرمز خسته شده و ادامه جنگ به هزینه مالی و سیاسی‌اش نمی‌ارزه. بنابراین از این آتش بس بدنبال رسیدن به توافق هست. ج.ا هم همون رویه سابق رو با اندکی تعدیل می‌خواد طی کنه بدلیل نباختن به امریکا مغرور تر از قبل میشه. اما درگیری ج.ا و اسرائیل احتمالا ادامه خواهد داشت ولی ترامپ دیگه اهمیتی نمیده. معیار سنجش: آتش‌بس به تفاهمی بین امریکا و ج.ا منجر می‌شه که توش، تنگه هرمز باز میشه و ج.ا احتمالا فقط هسته‌ای رو محدود و ۴۰۰ کیلو رو تحویل می‌ده. امریکا به شکل محدودی تحریم‌هارو برمی‌داره. اسرائیل اما در توافق و مفادش نقش پررنگی نداره. ۳. سناریوی تا حدی مثبت: افراد باقیمانده در راس ج.ا به یه عقلانیت نسبی برای حفظ جان و منافع رسیدن و قصدشون تغییر رویه ج.ا هست. بنابراین واقعا دنبال بستن تفاهم‌نامه و دست کشیدن تدریجی از ماجرا جویی و تروریسم و غرب ستیزی هستن. اما اجرای این سناریو در داخل وقتی دست بسیجی‌های دو آتیشه اسلحه دادن ممکن نیست. بنابراین پلنشون این می‌شه که برای داخل حرف از پیروزی و تحمیل مفاد تخیلی به امریکا بزنن تا بسیجی مسلح رو راضی به تحویل سلاح و برگشتن به خونه بکنن و همزمان بعد در یک بازه زمانی شاید ۱ تا ۳ ساله یک سری تغییرات اصلاحی در ساختار ج.ا بدن تا اون هویت اسرائیل‌ستیزی و غرب‌ستیزی رو ازش جدا کنن. مثلا طی یک سری انتخابات نمایشی که توش چهره های جدید با وعده های پر زرق و برق از همین اهداف (آزادی زندانیان سیاسی و شورایی کردن رهبری و پایان دادن به مخاصمه با امریکا و اسرائیل و ...) در کنار چهره‌های منفور و ترسناک مثل رئیسی‌ها، این شعارها منجر به جذب مشارکت توسط مردم می‌شه. اینطوری جا انداختن و عمل به این شعارها عملی و ممکن میشه طوریکه: ۱. مردم حس کنن ج.ا رو دارن عقب میدن و این تغییر رو خواسته اون‌ها داره باعث می‌شه و مشروعیت به نظام برمی‌گرده. ۲. عرزشی و بسیجی افراطی توی مسیر انتخابات و فرآیند کنترل پذیرتری راضی با تغییر گفتمان ج.ا روبرو می‌شه. اینطوری الیگارشی و تکنوکرات هم سر سفره و منافع قدرت میمونه و هم بقاش رو تضمین میکنه (از محاکمه قضایی یا مرگ به دست مردم یا نیروی خارجی نجات پیدا می‌کنه). معیار سنجش: آتش بس به توافقی منجر میشه که توش ج.ا هسته‌ای و موشکی و نیابتی رو کلا محدود یا حذف کنه، تحریم های امریکا هم برداشته بشه، چون حل مسئله اقتصادی برای کنترل مردم و پایداری داخلی سیستم بدون رفع تحریم‌ها ممکن نیست.

Hezbollah, and possibly Iran’s other regional partners as well, likely took into account (even if they were deeply concerned about it—and perhaps this is one reason the Houthis joined late and only partially) the possibility that a ceasefire would be reached with Israel while they themselves would remain at war. It is clear that, as part of the upcoming negotiations, Iran will demand a halt to the fighting in Lebanon as well. However, I am not at all convinced that it will be willing to jeopardize a ceasefire for Hezbollah, certainly at the current stage. The main question is what the U.S. position will be, and whether it will adopt the Israeli interpretation (that there is no connection between Lebanon and Iran) or the Pakistani interpretation aligned with Iran’s demand.

My take: I do not need to explain Trump's words. We all know he speaks in bombastic fashion. Anyone pretending he threatened to actually destroy the Iranian people is either dishonest or wilfully stupid. Those asking "who won" - including media outlets like @bbcnews and @nytimes - are mostly doing so because they hate Trump and are desperate to frame this as a defeat. It is a sign of how deluded people have become in the social media age that such a question is even being asked now. In addition - those who say Trump caved to Iran's ten demands haven't even bothered to read the actual Iranian public statement properly - so nobody should be listening to them either. The fact our media is quoting Iranian spokespeople as if they have merit is also risible. This is a regime built on propaganda. Treating it as a reliable source is absurd - so why not tell your audience that? So what is real? Actually - the key message now is to be the adult in the room and wait. There are massive signs Iran has caved. Firstly it promised just two days ago that the age of free travel through Hormuz are over. And hey presto they agreed to it just to get the U.S. to stop firing. Secondly - Lebanon. Hezbollah only entered the war to help its proxy. And it appears Iran has completely abandoned Hezbollah just to get the U.S. to stop. Those are both important tells. But the initial reality will be in the cake. What kind of deal (if any) is struck. When we see that - we can at least begin to judge. Yet even that does not tell us the value of this war. Only time will. History does not reveal itself 12 hours after a ceasefire. The regime has certainly been weakened - what now for Iran and the Iranian people? It will take them years just to rebuild - while those nations that fought Iran will be far stronger then, than they are now. And what about Israel? It's relationship with the Gulf States? If a few years from now, we live in a world in which Iran is no longer a regional threat, no longer holds nuclear ambitions and its proxies have collapsed. If it no longer can hold our economies hostage because oil pipelines lead from the Gulf states to Israel ports on the Med. And if Lebanon is back in control of Lebanon - with Hezbollah reduced to an unarmed political faction. The Middle East will look much safer. Israelis for the first time in their history - will not face an existential threat. Clear winners - and a clear loser - to the war that was just fought. Delusional? I don't know. Is it guaranteed? Also no. But it is far more grounded in reality than the delusional people already declaring that Iran “won”.

The key sentence in this New York Times piece about the Bund is: “Today, the Bund is largely forgotten.” There is a reason for that. As I write in the concluding chapter of Be a Refusenik: “In the long arc of Jewish history, the Bundists, whom today’s antizionists look to for inspiration, have lost decisively and irrevocably. Zionists outpaced the Bund by far in their appeal to Russian Jewry. They drove their point home when they fully implemented their political vision of building a Jewish state and rescuing the remains of Eastern European Jewry that the Bund had insisted must stay in Poland and Ukraine. Long after the Bund perished in the bloodlands of Europe, Zionists kept proving their point. They did it every time they saved more Jews — Moroccan, Tunisian, Libyan, Yemeni, Iraqi, Iranian, Ethiopian — and brought them to Israel. In the Soviet Union, their most resounding vindication came through the refuseniks, who reversed the destruction wrought by the Yevsektsia— the Jewish Sections of the Communist Party, staffed in part by former Bundists — and resurrected Judaism, Hebrew, Zionism, and the rich Jewish identity that Soviet policy had tried so hard to erase.” And that, in a nutshell, is why the Bund is now thoroughly forgotten, while Zionism continues to thrive and be a vital part of Jewish identity. No matter how hard Jewish antizionists like Crabapple try to invoke the ghosts of a movement whose vision proved to be so decisively and tragically wrong, they will not bring it back — and they certainly will not make it relevant for Jews again. So irrelevant is the Bund today, in fact, that it didn’t even make it into the title of the piece about it. What is in the title instead? Zionism. Q.E.D.

Is there historical truth behind the biblical story of the Exodus, the story which is the focus of the upcoming Passover (Pesach) holiday? Did you know that the first written mention of the word "Israel" comes from an Egyptian pharaoh? In fact, that reference actually predates the Bible itself. But how does this relate to the Exodus narrative? In the latest episode of our "Talk in the Library!" podcast, Prof. Israel Knohl presents his theories on what may be the historical reality behind the story of the Israelite Exodus from Egypt. Listen to the episode here: youtube.com/watch?v=kOG0OC… *** Image: "Israel in Egypt", Edward Poynter, 1867

לקראת פסח, שיחה מרתקת שלנו עם פרופסור ישראל קנוהל, חוקר מקרא והיסטוריון, על יציאת מצרים. הכל על הסיפור האהוב בהסתכלות היסטורית, תיאוריות על מה שהיה (או לא היה), והמון דברים שתוכלו לצטט כלאחר יד בשולחן הסדר כדי להצית דיון מרתק! השיחה באנגלית. youtube.com/watch?v=kOG0OC…

Helping an old lady, doesn’t even flinch when he is almost killed. עם ישראל חי

🇮🇱 The National Library of Israel @NLIsrael showed me a Tanach from 1430 (the year that Joan of Arc was captured) The book was rescued from Syria by Mossad in the 1970s and it STILL has that awesome book smell…

This was a lot of fun to work on😀

Read @Kasparov63 on @ZohranKMamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and the Democratic establishment's screwup in New York—and subscribe to The Next Move. thenextmove.org/p/zohran-mamda…

Again, this is why Mamdani's win feels like Trump's in 2016: it reflects a deep discontent with business as usual. And the Dem establishment's insistence on getting behind Cuomo - the absolute worst candidate to run in a change election - just shows how out of touch it is.

"I need a note from a Jewish scientist saying i'm right. Make it happen." 😎

One good indicator that you've become unhinged is when things you were dead-certain about start turning out wildly wrong. What stood out was the confidence. The usual suspects didn’t just voice reasonable concerns - they guaranteed doom. And BTW, it's not over. It's not over; things could still go badly. But once you start predicting disaster, you start rooting for it. That’s a terrible place to be: wanting the worst, just to be proven right.

As Archie Bunker said, "Geeze, Candace, you've painted us into a corner and thrown away the key!" I just get endless pleasure thinking about Dave, Tucker & Scott having to contend with this idiot, tripping over themselves to praise her brilliance while she buries them in lunacy.

1/The Iran - Israel War, Day 8. We are now a week after Israel launched what it labeled its *preemptive strike* against Iran, effectively beginning the war. It’s time to assess what both sides have achieved - and where things stand. Let’s begin with Israel. first, Israel focused its opening move on decapitating Iran’s senior military leadership and targeting around two dozen nuclear scientists involved in Iran’s secret weapons program. It then moved to nuclear installations and surface-to-surface ballistic missile infrastructure. The results have surpassed Israeli and international expectations. In the first 48 hours, Israel killed the most senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian military, and the air force. It assassinated the Iranian Chief of Staff. His replacement relocated to what Iran considered its most secret command bunker, deep in the mountains. Israel struck there too. He fled to a secondary command center in Tehran. He was killed there. (photo I took myself in Ramat Gan, two days ago).

Anti-Israeli protesters have broken into RAF Brize Norton and damaged two military planes, spraying red paint into the engines of two Airbus Voyager aircraft in a supposedly secure airbase in Oxfordshire last night on electric scooters. The British state is now so incompetent it can’t even protect its own military assets from a bunch of activists at a time of heightened international tensions. Various terrorist groups around the world must today be thinking – gosh, we never realised it could be so easy or that the Brits were so useless!

During the rocket fire on Haifa, the Al-Jarina Mosque in Wadi Nisnas was hit, and one of its clercis was injured.

A week into one of the most audacious military operations in history, what is the state of play? Iran is petulantly lashing out, flailing, while Israel is tearing its way through the regime, inflicting 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more damage on Iran than vice versa. 🧵(1/7)