Bob Shinice

COVID SHOTS INCREASE YOUR RISK OF 7 MAJOR CANCERS Breast: +54% Colon: +35% Prostate: +69% Bladder: +62% Stomach: +34% Lung: +53% Thyroid: +35% HUNDREDS of studies now confirm COVID-19 “vaccines” are one of the largest carcinogenic exposures in HISTORY.

Jeff Bezos says "you should be so happy!" about AI because dual income households are about to have one income earner "drop out" of the workforce...

@htsfhickey market up despite $nvda and $wmt down, bubble calls early as usual. I'll short $qqq at $800 after shorts get creamed

Record low consumer sentiment per today's University of Michigan report. Historically, consumer sentiment has moved with the stock market. Not this time. Were it not for the AI-driven capex (and stock market) bubbles, the U.S. economy would be in recession (likely a deep one). The bubbles better not pop... but of course, they will. wsj.com/livecoverage/s…

Tom Lee just said he thinks the stock market as a whole will have some tough tests over the next couple of months

@RealJimChanos Look at $rklb valuation and you tell me with SPACEX is going

SpaceX Adjusted EBITDA Table

@DariusDale42 Thanks D2.

MARKETS: Friendly reminder that I don't make market calls. Our quantitative risk management overlays KISS (for retail; since Jan-23) and Dr. Mo (for institutions & sophisticated retail; since Oct-23) are responsible for signaling to members of our global investor community what to do in their portfolios, not me. My sole job as CIO is to narrate the evolution of the distribution of probable economic, policy, and market outcomes so that when KISS and Dr. Mo instruct our global investor community to do something different in their portfolios, they understand the fundamental reasons why and can dispassionately execute the signals. Most investors struggle to execute systematic processes in isolation because most people suffer from narrative fallacy and need to assign cause and effect to market movements. I don’t. To Druckenmiller and me, markets are simply squiggly lines that make us richer or poorer. But since this is admittedly a highly unusual method for approaching capital markets, I am happy to meet our members halfway with high-quality fundamental research. Plus, as a former member of the bottom 0.001% of our K-shaped society, I derive personal satisfaction from piecing the macro puzzle together faster than Wall Street consensus. At any rate, here is our latest Fundamental Research Summary, which we feature in every @42Macro research report and incrementally revise as the data and our themes evolve:

Q. Cody, is it worth it to dabble in $rklb or train has left the station? Saw some news on tie up between Google and RKLB. A. Rocket Lab is a great company. That said, has anybody around here done any modeling on RKLB lately? It was a stretch to get my valuation models to make sense when the stock was at $10 or $20. At these prices, Rocket Lab will need to grow topline 50%+ for 10 years in a row while doubling their gross margins to make this stock look attractive here. We have to remain displined! Remember that our goal is to build wealth as safely as possible for the next few decades. Discipline is a major differentiator for the great investors. $GOOGL $GOOG #SpaceRevolution #Investing @codywillard

@DariusDale42 OK max confused, I thought it was time to be defensive/short now

POLL: Dr. Mo's been max long Tech $XLK since early April. Time to sell?

Funny, I don't remember such a backlash against the internet during the dot.com years. Probably because the benefits to the average American were a lot easier to see and understand (information at one's fingertips) versus so many of the negatives people see today. Improved search engines versus cost inflation (including rapidly rising electricity rates), potential loss of jobs and wage pressures, wealth inequality, wholesale theft of peoples' work (writers, artists, etc.), a deluge of fake and scam advertising, threats to children's well-being...the list goes on. The average American also doesn't care much about computer programmers' increased ability to write code faster. wsj.com/tech/ai/the-am…

@DariusDale42 follow up question, what do you say to the argument that "everyone is short QQQ and it is crowded" .

@SteveDa19026883 Weren't they bearish while we were ragingly bullish throughout 2023 and 2024?

RISK MANAGEMENT: While incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh learned from Alan Greenspan and others to avoid “taking away the punch bowl” in the early innings of a Productivity Boom, the rest of the generally left-leaning FOMC is still engaged in backward-looking, CYA monetary policy because of their outsized contribution to the ongoing nationwide affordability crisis. At a minimum, they will take issue with the timing mismatch between the supply-side miracle that Warsh, outgoing Fed Governor Stephen Miran, and others are expecting over the long run and the 2-3-percentage-points-of-GDP-sized positive demand shock for resources and capital in the short run from AI capex. We hope these data-driven insights bless you on your journey to retire on time and comfortably. Best of luck! —Skipper

@DariusDale42 KM also were saying "sell" April 11 2025. Yesterday is the first major split noticed, but not denying you are right with 23/24. Tom Lee is saying we tank hard (at least he say that a few months ago that we would give it back) your research seem to be aligned. Cool you share it

@DylanRatigan How can we invest in that?

HotelPlanner is taking customer service in hospitality to the next level with AI. Breathtaking work - now originating and completing almost 3 billion a year and now moving directly into hotel ownership with AI services. Congratulations 🎉

@DrFrankTurek No, science rejects vitalism.

Is there scientific evidence for the existence of the soul?

A father threw a chair at a judge after the driver who killed his daughter and her grandparents was sentenced to only 120 hours of Community service

Clemson is $1.5B in debt. Syracuse is closing or pausing 93 programs, UNC-Chapel Hill plans to cut spending by $89M over 3 years. Duke recently let 600 employees go in a $350M budget cut. Indiana public colleges announced a plan to eliminate or merge 580 programs statewide.

@gnoble79 don't listen to this bear. follow @TradingWithCody instead. Guys like this never make you money like Cody does

What's happening right now in our capital markets is going to DESTROY the retirement savings of millions of Americans. Anyone of good conscience needs to rise up and say enough. This must be stopped. I don't say that lightly. I've been doing this for 45 years, and what's happening right now to the integrity of our capital markets is unlike anything I have ever seen. This is not about Elon Musk or Donald Trump. This is not about whether you like rockets or hate rockets. This is about the systematic CORRUPTION of the financial system that every American depends on for their retirement. In the entirety of its existence, Tesla has generated approximately $36 billion in cumulative profit. That includes over $20 billion in government emission credits and tax subsidies. The company is valued at $1.7 trillion and its CEO is the richest man on the planet. I'm not talking about the stock price. I know the stock has made people money. That's the popularity contest. I'm talking about whether this company creates enough economic value to JUSTIFY the capital invested in it. And it doesn't. The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation. So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE. Elon Musk is selling hopium and an entire generation of investors is buying it without even knowing what a PE ratio is. I posted two pieces recently on Tesla and SpaceX. Each got over 1.5 million impressions. Thousands of hate replies but NOT ONE response with an actual argument. Not one. It was all "Libtard" and "Elon derangement syndrome." You would not get past a first-round interview at Fidelity thinking this way. But Tesla is just the opening act... SpaceX just filed for a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. $15 billion in revenue but no profit in sight. The private valuation was walked up from $200 billion to $400 billion to $800 billion to $1.75 trillion in two years. And Reuters has confirmed that SpaceX made early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a necessary condition for listing on the exchange. Nasdaq obliged by adopting a "Fast Entry" rule in March that lets mega-cap IPOs join the index after just 15 trading days, completely exempt from the normal seasoning and liquidity requirements every other company had to meet. And this matters because over $600 billion in passive funds track the Nasdaq-100. Unlike the S&P 500, which still requires months of seasoning and stricter float thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 is now a 15-day on-ramp for trillion-dollar IPOs. Every ETF and mutual fund benchmarked to that index will be FORCED to buy SpaceX within weeks of it going public regardless of whether the valuation makes any sense. Your 401(k) is literally the exit liquidity. You don't even get a choice. The structure of the market makes you a participant whether you want to be or not. That's what makes this different from every other bubble in history... You can't opt out. And the agencies that were supposed to protect you from exactly this? They're doing NOTHING. Peter Lynch would always say the product is not the stock and the stock is not the product. Show me one Hall of Fame investor who ever made his fortune chasing hype. Lynch, Druckenmiller, Soros, Buffett, Griffin, Cohen. Not one of them managed money this way. It's only the cult on X who thinks momentum and greater fool is an investment strategy. As Buffett said, in the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a weighing machine. This popularity contest has gone on longer than any I've witnessed in my career. But gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do. This must stop. And it WILL stop. The only question is how much damage gets done first. Are you listening?

Stan Druckenmiller... is #1. (time to fix your list) You and Sonu can be 1A and 1B. 🤣