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@unusual_whales One trade every 7 minutes while running the free world. Meanwhile retail investors get investigated for insider trading for buying calls on a company their cousin works at. Two sets of rules
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John Miller
355 posts
John Miller
@SwissInvestr
Swiss macro lens on US markets.
USA / Europe Katılım Mart 2024
78 Takip Edilen125 Takipçiler
@WhaleInsider India: crypto is "high risk"
Also India: 119 million crypto users, #1 on the global adoption index 3 years running, thousands of crores flowing offshore because there's no regulatory framework
Maybe the high risk is the regulatory vacuum they've been sitting on for 4 years.
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JUST IN: 🇮🇳 Indian government flags crypto system as ‘high risk’ in note to parliamentary panel.
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$DLO
The market still hasn't priced this in:
• TPV +73% YoY in Q1 2026
• 60+ countries, one API
• 140%+ net revenue retention 4 quarters running
• Forward P/E of ~13x
• Analyst avg target: $17.65 (+60% from here)
While everyone chases AI darlings, DLocal is quietly becoming the payment rails for 5 billion people in emerging markets.
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@Mr_Derivatives If that seasonality holds, late May through June is historically the VIX floor before the summer creep into Aug/Sep. Options premium is cheap right now.
Great time to be a buyer of tail risk, not a seller.
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The PBOC regularly injects hundreds of billions in yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations as standard monetary plumbing.
This week's figure isn't unusual by historical standards. Framing routine liquidity management as a harbinger of collapse is a recurring pattern in finance content.
Worth verifying the specific context before drawing conclusions.
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@QCompounding Investing is maybe 20% knowledge and 80% temperament. Everyone reads the same books. Not everyone can sit still when their portfolio is down 30% and the headlines are screaming.
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Why do most investors fail?
"Over time people get smarter but not wiser. They don't get emotionally stable. You can teach people all you want, tell them to read Graham's book, you can send them to graduate school, but when they are scared, they really get scared." - Buffett
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@Vivek4real_ Every generation thought they were living through the most disruptive moment in history.
This time they might actually be right.
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@Coinvo This is one of those stories that sounds like sci-fi but is completely real.
Space-based solar works 24/7, no weather, no night cycle. If they can scale the transmission efficiency, this changes the entire energy equation. Japan has been quietly working on this for 20 years.
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@leshka_eth Kiyosaki has been calling a crash every year for about a decade. One day he'll be right and take full credit.
The silver industrial demand thesis is actually solid though. That part doesn't need the doom framing to be compelling.
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🚨BREAKING:
ROBERT KIYOSAKI JUST SAID GOLD WILL HIT $35,000 SILVER $200 IN 2026
$SILVER IS CONSUMED BY SOLAR, EVs AND ELECTRONICS AND CAN'T BE RECYCLED
CENTRAL BANKS ARE BUYING $GOLD AT RECORD PACE AS THE DOLLAR COLLAPSES
HE PREDICTS THE CRASH COMES FIRST, THEN METALS EXPLODE
Leshka.eth ⛩@leshka_eth
GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE BREAKING IN REAL TIME Bond yields are spiking around the world simultaneously US 10-year Treasury: 4.6%, biggest weekly jump since 2025 Japan 30-year: broke 4% for the first time since it was introduced in 1999 Japan 10-year: 2.78%, highest since May 1997 UK gilts up 15 bps in a single day on political instability The cause in the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, meaning oil stays elevated and Inflation expectations refuse to come down The Trump-Xi summit ended without progress Bond traders are pricing in stagflation instead of pricing in rate cuts This matters beyond bonds Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments The US has $39 trillion in debt and pays $1 trillion a year in interest Every basis point up costs the Treasury billions Polymarket now gives 66% odds that Kevin Warsh hikes rates in December Markets are still in disbelief The bigger risk is if Japanese institutional investors stop financing US Treasuries and start repatriating capital They hold $1.1 trillion in US debt When the same thing happened in August 2024, the yen carry trade unwound and global markets crashed in 72 hours Bond markets are the foundation of everything else And the foundation is moving
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The Nasdaq just went on a 13-day winning streak.
Record S&P profit margins. Strong jobs report. Earnings beats across the board.
Everything looks great on the surface.
So why does the macro picture feel so fragile?
Brand new Fed chair taking office into an active war in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz still a wildcard. Inflation not fully tamed. AI companies spending hundreds of billions with investors now demanding proof it's working.
The market is priced for things to keep going right.
That's exactly when you need to pay attention.
Markets closed Monday. Good weekend to zoom out and think clearly.
What are you watching heading into the week?
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@WOLF_Financial Pichai's human mind analogy is actually pretty solid. We deploy surgery, pharmaceuticals, and financial systems we don't fully understand either. The question was never "do we understand it" but "is the risk/benefit ratio acceptable."
Honest answer from him.
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THE CEO OF GOOGLE $GOOGL ADMITTED THAT THEY DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND HOW THEIR OWN AI WORKS
He called it a "black box."
Then the 60 Minutes interviewer pushed him on it:
"You don't fully understand how it works. And yet you've turned it loose on society."
Sundar Pichai's answer:
"Let me put it this way, I don't think we fully understand how a human mind works either."
He pointed to one Google AI program that taught itself to translate all of Bengali after just a small amount of prompting, a language it was never trained to know. That single discovery pushed Google into a new effort to reach 1,000 languages.
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@growthrapidly Already in. The GLP-1 tailwind combined with the peptide/longevity pivot is underappreciated. Market is anchored to Q1 noise. If Q2 shows the revenue inflection, this re-rates fast. Risk/reward here is asymmetric.
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$HIMS could shock a lot of people this summer.
Q2 has the potential to be one of the most important quarters in the company’s history.
The market is still focused on the Q1 miss and margin concerns.
But if HIMS shows strong GLP-1 demand, accelerating revenue, and real progress on peptides/longevity, the sentiment could flip fast.
A lot of people may end up chasing this higher.
Are you buying $HIMS before Q2 earnings or waiting?
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@StockMarketNerd Fair point on Threads, but the X comparison cuts both ways. Threads couldn't kill X because X has network effects built over a decade. Meta's playbook works best against younger platforms still finding their footing. Reddit and Snapchat learned that the hard way.
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@SwissInvestr Threads is doing pretty well! Users & average engagement rising nicely
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$META is the master of using competitors to test products & concepts to take for itself.
From Stories, to Reels, to Threads and now the $RDDT copy-cat.
I'm sure it drives competitors crazy. I understand why people get annoyed.
But man is it effective.
And man is it an extremely low risk way to introduce products you know people want.
And man is it 100% their prerogative to take advantage of their massive network effect and make sure it has all the tools they want in one place.
Don’t hate the player…
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Hormuz reopens.
Here's who wins and who loses:
Winners:
Airlines. Jet fuel is their biggest cost.
Emerging markets. They were bleeding on energy imports.
Shipping stocks. War-risk insurance premiums collapse overnight.
European consumers. Energy bills were already stretched.
Losers:
US shale producers. $126 oil was their dream. That's over.
Saudi Arabia. They helped broker the deal that cuts their own revenue.
Defense contractors. De-escalation is bad for their order books.
Tanker stocks. War-risk premiums were a goldmine.
The most interesting question tonight:
Saudi Arabia just took an oil price hit to make this deal happen. What did they get in return?
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Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with America.
Trump announced a deal to reopen it few minutes later.
Oil markets on Monday are going to be interesting.
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@KobeissiLetter If this holds, it's a massive market event. Hormuz reopening means oil supply shock in reverse, energy prices drop, shipping insurance normalizes, and Gulf sovereign wealth funds get a lot more comfortable deploying capital. Watch crude futures at open.
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BREAKING: President Trump says an agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated” and will be announced shortly.
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened under the agreement.
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@Investingcom Under UNCLOS, the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait subject to transit passage rights for all nations. No single coastal state can unilaterally restrict that. This claim has no basis in international law.
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*THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH AMERICA, AND THIS IS A MATTER BETWEEN IRAN AND THE COASTAL COUNTRIES - IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON
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The $AMD comparison doesn't really hold up. $AMD is a mature semiconductor business with stable, predictable cash flows.
SpaceX is building global internet infrastructure (Starlink) and a reusable rocket monopoly. The losses are largely R&D and capex, not operational failure. Investors are pricing the optionality, not the current P&L.
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Space x is valued at $2T & not even profitable
$18.7B revenues & $4.9B losses
Just for context $AMD is worth $800B posted $34B revenue & $4.3B profit
So no I’m not buying Space X IPO
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The memory shortage part is real and well-documented. Nvidia reportedly completed the design of its RTX 50 Super refresh but deprioritized production due to the ongoing memory chip shortage, and the RTX 60 series has been delayed beyond 2027.
The China angle is speculative though. Chinese GPU makers are nowhere near competitive with Nvidia on performance yet, and gaming GPUs require years of software ecosystem development (drivers, DLSS equivalents, game support) that can't be filled overnight. The EV comparison is a stretch since GPUs are far more software-dependent than cars.
The "2028" timeline for next-gen is also not confirmed, just a rumor based on leaked production schedules.
Interesting situation, but the conclusion that China is about to "take over" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
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🇨🇳 CHINA IS ABOUT TO TAKE OVER THE CONSUMER GPU MARKET.
For the first time in nearly 30 years, $NVDA is not releasing a single new gaming GPU in 2026.
The reason is simple.
AI data centers are consuming every gigabyte of memory that exists.
Gaming memory production is getting devoured by AI servers at a 500% price premium over what gaming cards pay.
There is nothing left to build consumer GPUs with.
Nvidia started as a gaming company. The RTX brand built its entire consumer reputation.
Now the memory that would go into your next graphics card is sitting inside a data center training a model somewhere.
Gamers may not see meaningful new hardware until 2028.
China sees the gap. Cheaper consumer GPUs are already in the pipeline same playbook as electric vehicles.
Spot the vacuum left by a distracted Western company and build for the market they abandoned.
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@Kalshi Jeff Bezos at 2% is wild to me. He's not even trying?"
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