Thomas Nemeth

Supercoach Breakout Study - a thread 🧵/9 Everyone in #SuperCoach wants to pick that next breakout player, and midpricers are more popular than ever this year. I looked back at the past 8 years to see if there was any way to help spot these breakouts. (inspired by @LateRoundQB)

@maltburger85 Unfortunately no, his profile is so unique that he doesn’t really fit many of the historical breakout traits. Will be a fun one to track though !

@TomNemeth8 Was Blakiston anywhere near it mate?

#Supercoach Breakouts - 📈2026 Players who FIT the data 🧵 /4 My annual list of possible BREAKOUTS who strike the right mix of historical breakout traits and favorable contextual factors. New for this year: Bonus for "First Round Draft Pick" status - an emerging breakout trend

@3mountainfamily Windsor already on the list! Philipou priced below 200K so not considered as a mid pricer here. The others certainly a chance

@TomNemeth8 Other 1st rounder breakouts also looking at Sanders, Phillipou, Windsor, Rowston

Many interesting options this year, and only 1 preseason game to get a real glimpse. Let me know your thoughts! Anyone you think I missed?

This year's list! 👇

@podlyf Yes definitely! Will post closer to the games next week

@TomNemeth8 Thanks. Previous years you’ve done a list of people who fit. Will you do the list again this year?

#SuperCoach Breakouts Study Review of 2025 - Another Trend 👀 With lots of recent talk around the AFL Draft and how it has changed with Academies and Father-son, it was interesting to find that a new trend seems to be emerging for #SuperCoach breakouts related to the Draft 👇🧵

@podlyf players originally priced between $210K - $550K who either made at least 150K during the season, or became a top 6-8 player at their position (in other words, what has typically been considered a successful mid-price pick)

@TomNemeth8 What defines a break out ?

In other words, in recent years, nearly 2/3rds of breakouts were First Round draft picks 🤯 Perhaps this is just noise, but it’s certainly an emerging trend that is worth considering when identifying mid price #Supercoach breakouts for 2026

In 2025, a whopping 15 of 22 breakouts (68%) were First Round picks in the AFL Draft. This marked the 3rd time in the last 4 years that this number was >64% Compare this to the four years prior (2018-2021), where this number never reached >50%

🟢 Biggest Hits: NWM, Holmes, Callaghan, Bailey Smith, Caleb Daniel. 🔴 Biggest Misses: Sinn, Powell, Oliver 🤦‍♂️ 🟡Honorable mentions? Ashcroft (raised avg by 19 from 2024), Roberts (looked a win for the first 8 weeks), Peatling (frustrating pick, but did make 139K by week 11)

#SuperCoach Breakouts Study Review of 2025 Part 1: “Hits & Misses" Last year I presented this list of players that I felt struck a good mix between historical breakout data and context. Time to review! ⏬

@jmthrivept What are you seeing here that makes you think TFCC?

TFCC

With so many injuries to premiums this preseason, opportunities are certainly there for breakouts. This year seemed to present a lot of intriguing options, and there were some unlucky omissions here. Let me know your thoughts! Anyone deserving that you think I missed?

Now, onto this years list 👇

#Supercoach Breakouts - 📈2025 Players who FIT the data 🧵 /4 Back for my annual list of players who seem to strike the right mix of historical breakout traits and favorable contextual factors. New for this year are "older breakout" considerations, based on updated criteria

2. The "Vets" Jack Macrae & Luke Parker Since 2015, only 4 breakouts played >248 games prior to breaking out, none with CBAs. Zorko (2024), Ziebell (2023), and Hurn (2022) were all distributing defenders (all with >100 kick ins); Tom Hawkins (2020) was a key forward who avg 106

1. The "Kids" Riley Sanders and Hugo Garcia Out of the 113 Breakouts in the last 5 years, only 9 have been Year 2 players. Since 2015, only 3 breakouts have been 19 years old

#Supercoach Breakouts: 🔴 2025 Players who do NOT fit 🔴 /3 With 1 week until Round 0, lets look at some players who are popular breakout candidates, but do NOT fit historical breakout data. (These are not necessarily players I dislike) 👇