Tom Chen

Jeff Bezos on CNBC: "If people want me to pay more billions, then let's have that debate, but don't pretend that that's gonna solve the problem. You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens.... Airbnb isn't causing high rents. What's really causing high rent is government intervention."

I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out… There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code. That comes out to nearly $1k per month of average Claude spend across every dev in America. Yes, there’s some international usage, but it can’t be that much. Yes there is some non software Cowork usage, but that doesn’t use that many tokens. Yes, some non engineers are using Claude to vibe code, but I really doubt many are spending hundreds per month on. Even if we assume 50% of all software workers are using Claude, that comes out to $2k spend per month per Claude user. Thats 10X more than the highest tier Max subscription. So almost all of Anthropics revenue has to be API billing So the only explanation is that something like 20%+ of software engineers are not only Claude users but on API billing and regularly spending thousands per month. At $5/m Opus tokens that means the average API user has to be going through something like 25 million tokens per day. *OR* the other possibility is API revenue is heavily power law dominated. Maybe there’s just something like 100k super users who are making up the majority of the revenue. For that to work the typical super user would have to be spending on the order of $50k/month and guzzling nearly 1 billion tokens per day.

Anthropic is now showing off $44 BILLION in annual recurring revenue. This is up $14 billion (+46.6%) since last month! BULLISH for AI Infrastructure $NVDA $AMD

Don’t outsource your thinking. Letting LLMs do your thinking is the new TikTok (or slot machine) addiction; intermittent reward, attention fragmenting across parallel streams you’re not really tracking. State management is one of the hardest problems in agent harnesses, and the moment you’re running more than three terminals at once, you’ve stopped managing agents and you’re just nudging them along while losing track of what they’re actually doing. I’d even cut it to one session. Make yourself sit with the problem before you hand it off. The reading, thinking and planning muscles returning in the first week will cause some discomfort. Slow down. Do the deep work.

Product people who have a) deep experience with consumer products *and* b) spike on user empathy & creativity find B2B products to be Easy Mode. They tend to have a high success rate with B2B products *as long as* they commit to acquiring deep domain expertise. Many don’t.

everyone assumed ai would flatten the talent distribution.. turns out it amplifies the hell out of it. it used to be: can you build it. now it’s: do you know what’s worth building, & can you feel when it’s wrong. that’s ~unteachable & ~unautomatable right now. models can generate 100 variants of anything but they still can’t tell you which one matters. amazing talent is roughly priceless in the ai era because with ai it’s leverage++++++.

Dwarkesh and Jensen are civilized men so we didn't see *a lot* of sparks flying, but it is a profound disconnect between generations, cultures, and immigration stories. Jensen is the gangsta poster boy for American Dream. Dwarkesh is the Bay Aryan Thinkboy icon. irreconcilable

The Jensen Huang episode. 0:00:00 – Is Nvidia’s biggest moat its grip on scarce supply chains? 0:16:25 – Will TPUs break Nvidia’s hold on AI compute? 0:41:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia become a hyperscaler? 0:57:36 – Should we be selling AI chips to China? 1:35:06 – Why doesn’t Nvidia make multiple different chip architectures? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!

Every time I see a tweet saying “I can vibe code this in a weekend” - I think of the slack notification system.. It takes time, persistence and effort to get the details right. Sure, a lot of simple workflows will get vibe coded away. And maybe you can put this in Claude Code and get the code right in one shot. But quality, depth and great systems will still have value and take time. You can’t vibe code lessons. Now and forever.

I was chatting with my buddy at Google, who's been a tech director there for about 20 years, about their AI adoption. Craziest convo I've had all year. The TL;DR is that Google engineering appears to have the same AI adoption footprint as John Deere, the tractor company. Most of the industry has the same internal adoption curve: 20% agentic power users, 20% outright refusers, 60% still using Cursor or equivalent chat tool. It turns out Google has this curve too. But why is Google so... average? How is it that a handful of companies are taking off like a spaceship, and the rest, including Google, are mired in inaction? My buddy's observation was key here: There has been an industry-wide hiring freeze for 18+ months, during which time nobody has been moving jobs. So there are no clued-in people coming in from the outside to tell Google how far behind they are, how utterly mediocre they have become as an eng org. He says the problem is that they can't use Claude Code because it's the enemy, and Gemini has never been good enough to capture people's workflows like Claude has, so basically agentic coding just never really took off inside Google. They're all just plodding along, completely oblivious to what's happening out there right now. Not only is Google not able to do anything about it, they don't seem to be aware of the problem at all. I'm having major flashbacks to fifty years ago as a kid at the La Brea Tar Pits, asking, "why can't they just climb out?" My Google friend and I had this conversation over a month ago. I didn't share it because I wanted to look around a bit, and see if it's really as bad as all that. I've been talking to people from dozens of companies since then. And yeah. It's as bad as all that. Google is about average. Some companies at the bottom have near-zero AI adoption and can't even get budget for AI. They may have moats and high walls, but the horde is coming for them all the same. And then there are a few companies I've met recently who are *amazingly* leaned in to AI adoption. One category-leader company just cancelled IntelliJ for a thousand engineers. That's an incredibly bold move, one of many they're making towards agentic adoption. In my opinion, that company is setting themselves up for a _huge_ W. As for the rest, well, it's the Great Siloing. Everyone's flying blind. With nobody moving companies, no company knows where they stand on the AI adoption curve. Nobody knows how they're doing compared to everyone else. Half of them just check a box: "We enabled {Copilot/Cursor} for everyone!" Cue smug celebrations. They think this is like getting SOC2 compliance, just a thing they turn on and now it's "solved." And they don't realize that they've done effectively nothing at all. All because of a hiring freeze.