Uganda Development Bank Ltd

UDB Webinar; Impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on Uganda's Economy twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

UDB Webinar Series Highlights Economic uncertainty often shifts attention toward short-term challenges. However, sustainable responses depend on a deeper understanding of structural conditions and long-term economic fundamentals. The discussion highlighted that resilience is not developed in response to crises, but through consistent investment in systems, institutions, and planning frameworks over time. This reinforces the need for forward-looking economic management that prioritises preparedness. Key takeaway: Economic shocks also provide an opportunity to strengthen systems and reinforce long-term resilience.

The Business Health Index (BHI) for Q1 2026 reflects a notable cooling in business conditions, with the index declining to 37.20, below the neutral 50 mark. The contraction was driven by post-festive demand normalisation, post-election adjustments, and persistent global uncertainties. Key indicators softened across production, sales, profitability, and raw material availability, pointing to continued supply and demand-side pressures in the economy. However, forward-looking sentiment shows renewed optimism. The Outlook Index rose to 55.45, signalling improved business confidence for Q2 2026, supported by expectations of stronger demand, rising sales volumes, and improved revenues. While Q1 reflects broad-based sectoral and regional slowdowns, the outlook suggests a gradual recovery in momentum ahead. Watch the video below for more insights

UDB Webinar Series Highlights: Opportunities for Uganda In considering how Uganda should position itself in the face of prolonged global uncertainty, the discussion explored what forward-looking policy priorities should look like under different scenarios, including the possibility of sustained geopolitical tensions. As Joseph Mawejje noted: the dynamics on the ground are shifting rapidly. With Uganda expected to become an exporter of oil products in the near future, the focus increasingly shifts to how potential revenue gains are managed and translated into long-term economic value. In this context, effective management of the anticipated oil windfall becomes a key policy consideration, particularly in ensuring that short-term gains are aligned with broader development objectives and structural transformation. Key takeaway: Emerging opportunities, including Uganda’s evolving oil position, reinforce the importance of disciplined and forward-looking management of future economic gains.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights What does it take for development finance to truly match the scale of Uganda’s economic ambitions? The discussion on private sector credit underscored the need for affordable, long-term financing, while also raising a broader question around institutional capacity and scale. With Uganda’s economy estimated at over UGX 200 trillion compared to UDB’s balance sheet of about UGX 2 trillion, the scale gap becomes an important part of the conversation. Development financing is typically expected to account for around 15% of GDP or 35% of private sector credit, highlighting the level of capital required to meaningfully drive economic transformation and private sector growth. This observation underscored the importance of scaling development finance as a driver of private sector growth and broader economic transformation.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights: Opportunities for Uganda Beyond understanding the impact of global disruptions, the conversation also turned to the longer-term path forward for building resilience within Uganda’s economy. As Dr. Francis Mwesigye, Chief Economist at UDB, noted, “We must industrialise. We must drive structural transformation in favour of industrialisation. That means ensuring that what is produced has a market.” He further emphasized the role of agro-processing in strengthening agricultural value chains: “If it is agriculture-based, investment in agro-processing enables the sourcing of raw materials from agriculture, creates better markets for farmers, adds value to production, and ultimately generates jobs.” Key takeaway: industrialisation and value addition remain central to strengthening economic resilience, linking production to markets, and supporting sustainable job creation.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights The US–Israel–Iran conflict has pushed up global oil prices and increased inflationary pressures around the world. These changes also influence borrowing conditions, prices, and financial flows within the local economy. Against this backdrop, Uganda’s growing reliance on domestic borrowing raises an important question: how is available credit being used across the economy? As Joseph Mawejje, Senior Economist at World Bank, noted, “The key question is who gets crowded out when domestic borrowing increases, and whether credit is supporting sectors that can drive structural transformation.” At the moment, much of private sector lending goes to real estate, personal services, and trade. While these sectors are vital, it is important to consider whether sufficient financing is being allocated to more productive sectors that can create more jobs and drive long-term growth. Key takeaway: Global shocks are not just external events. They shape local borrowing conditions and influence how credit is allocated within the economy.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights The tensions in the middle east continue to shape commodity markets, with inflationary pressures increasingly reflected in key agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. These shifts carry important implications for food systems, production costs, and agricultural resilience across economies. As highlighted by Joseph Mawejje, Senior Economist at World Bank “Countries are now seeing elevated inflationary pressures and the prices of fertilizer are increasing.” He further notes that these dynamics, if not addressed in a timely manner, could have wider implications for food security, with an estimated additional 30 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa potentially at risk of hunger. The this insight underscores the close connection between global market disruptions and agricultural outcomes in developing economies, particularly in how they influence both production capacity and long-term food system stability.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights Few sectors reflect global energy shifts as immediately as transport, logistics, and distribution. Because these sectors sit at the heart of how goods move, even small changes in fuel prices can quickly translate into adjustments in operating costs, delivery efficiency, and supply chain stability. While the broader economy eventually absorbs these pressures, the effects are often first visible in the systems that keep goods and services moving across markets. Key takeaway: transport and logistics not just operational sectors, but key indicators of how global market shifts are filtering into local economic activity and business performance.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights The tea sector demonstrates how global disruptions can quickly translate into local production and export challenges. As a crop that is highly dependent on productivity-enhancing inputs such as fertilizer, even small shifts in global supply chains can influence output levels, cost structures, and overall competitiveness. A significant share of global fertilizer supply originates from the Gulf region, with Uganda relying on imports from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar for key inputs like urea. As a result, disruptions that affect global supply or pricing can have direct implications for input availability and production costs within the sector. As Dr. Francis Mwesigye, Chief Economist at UDB, highlighted, “The tea sub-sector has been struggling with low prices and weak demand. Just as it begins to recover, it is hit again by external shocks, including constrained access to critical inputs like fertilizer, which are essential for productivity.”

UDB Webinar Series Highlights Economic pressures rarely affect all parts of an economy in the same way. Their impact is often shaped by structural factors such as access to markets and the efficiency of distribution systems. Dr Francis Mwesigye highlighted how these underlying differences influence the way economic conditions are transmitted and experienced across different parts of the economy. Key takeaway: The impact of economic shocks varies by location, reflecting differences in access, infrastructure, and market conditions.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights When a single global route carries the commodities that power economies, disruptions far away can still show up in everyday prices at home. As Joseph Mawejje, Senior Economist at World Bank, noted during the discussion, “Consider the following: 50% of the world’s seaborne trade in sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The same applies to 34% of oil trade, 39% of liquefied petroleum gas, 19% of liquefied natural gas, around 20% of refined oil products, 13% of chemicals including fertilizers, and nearly 10% of metals such as aluminum.” The Strait of Hormuz therefore functions as a critical choke point of the global economy. Any interruption of commodity exports from the Gulf region does not stay confined to energy markets , it transmits into fertilizer availability, fuel prices, and the cost of industrial inputs that ultimately influence production costs and food systems. For economies like Uganda, which rely on imported fuel, fertilizers, and industrial commodities, such disruptions can filter through into transport costs, agricultural input prices, and the cost of doing business. Key takeaway: Global trade disruptions don’t remain “global” for long; they eventually show up locally in the price of fuel, food, and essential goods.

We extend warm congratulations to H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni upon his swearing-in as President of the Republic of Uganda. UDB remains committed to sustaining its support for investments that advance inclusive growth and strengthen economic resilience.

UDB Webinar Series Highlights: Understanding the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict Some disruptions stand out not just for their immediate impact, but for their scale and the breadth of their effects across global markets. The loss of oil supply caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the largest disruption on record, with initial supply losses exceeding those seen in past major global shocks such as the Iranian Revolution, the Arab oil embargo, the invasion of Kuwait, the Iran-Iraq war, the Iraq war, and the civil war in Libya. - Joseph Mawejje, Senior Economist at World Bank. Given the Strait’s critical role in global energy flows, such shocks inevitably extend beyond oil markets, affecting the supply and pricing of other key commodities. The result is a wave of adjustments across global markets, contributing to broader increases in commodity prices and heightened economic uncertainty. Key takeaway: Commodity-dependent economies remain highly vulnerable to geopolitical instability, highlighting the importance of resilience, diversification, and long-term economic planning. #UDBWebinarSeriesEP01

UDB Webinar Series Highlights: Understanding the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict In an interconnected global economy, developments in one region can quickly influence markets, supply chains, and economic activity across the world. Energy markets, commodity prices, and financial systems remain closely linked, making global events increasingly relevant to local economies and everyday life. “While this war is very far from the Ugandan perspective in the Middle East, its implications, especially if you live in an interconnected and interdependent world, mean that whatever happens in one part of the world can significantly affect another.” Dr. Francis Mwesigye, Chief Economist at UDB. The discussion highlighted how shifts in global markets are often reflected through changes in fuel prices, commodity costs, and broader business conditions that influence both industries and households. #UDBWebinarSeriesEP01

UDB Webinar Series Highlights In today’s global economy, distance offers little protection from disruption. Economic shocks move through interconnected systems: trade, energy, finance, and supply chains, shaping how prices shift, how currencies respond, and ultimately how the cost of doing business evolves across borders. But these effects do not stop at markets and balance sheets. They filter into everyday life: into the price of fuel, the cost of transport, the cost of goods in markets, and the financial decisions households and businesses must make each day. What begins as a geopolitical or regional development rarely remains contained. Instead, it is transmitted through economic systems in ways that are indirect but deeply felt in daily living conditions. As Simon Kasyate notes, “Wars are not fought only on the battlefields. They are fought in the prices of beans, beef, and bread, in the cost of a boda boda ride, and in the margin between a small business surviving or closing its doors.” By understanding these shifts, businesses and households can better anticipate and adapt to change.

What she gives today becomes the foundation someone else stands on tomorrow. Her care, sacrifice, and guidance don’t end in the moment; they accumulate into something far greater over time. Today, we honour that lasting legacy. Happy Mother’s Day

We asked one simple question: what were they listening to? The answers were unexpected. Watch till the end … some of these might surprise you too 😁

#TGIF: A small throwback to our inaugural CIO Conclave. A takeaway from Peter Mukuru, Director of Business Technology at @UDB_Official: As CIOs, we have built some of the most sophisticated technology infrastructures in our organizations. We have digitized processes, secured networks, and driven system-wide transformations. The role of the CIO has evolved faster than the narrative surrounding it. We are no longer just custodians of technology; we are, or should be, architects of business value. #CIOConclave2026 #CIOLeadership